https://runelikvern.com/2021/05/10/the-bakken-a-snapshot-from-40-000-feet-as-of-end-2020/2021-05-09T22:21:03+00:00monthlyhttps://runelikvern.com/om-fractional-flow/https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/c20fd-fractional-flow1.pngFractional Flowhttps://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/a47a0-fractional-flow.pngFractional Flowhttps://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/f03e8-nytt-bilde.pngNytt bildehttps://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/135ae-pict-w-jack-03.jpgPICT W JACK 032021-05-09T20:49:15+00:00weekly0.6https://runelikvern.com/2020/10/05/the-prices-of-usd-oil-and-u-s-fiscal-and-monetary-policies/2020-10-05T01:49:29+00:00monthlyhttps://runelikvern.com/2018/07/09/more-on-lto-economics-in-the-bakken/https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/547b6-table-5-summary-bakken-2017-vintage-xt-vs-normal.pngTable 5 Summary Bakken 2017 vintage XT vs NormalTable 5: The table above gives a summary of key metrics for the normal and XT cases.https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/06877-table-4-i-and-o-for-the-2017-vintage-at-60-xt.pngTable 4 I and O for the 2017 vintage at 60 XTTable 4: Some key inputs and outputs from the economic analysis (XT scenario) of the average 2017 well started in Jan-17 and with a future projected oil price at WH of $60/bo and $2,50/Mcf.https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/c92a8-figure-6-bakken-lto-2017-vintage-normal-versus-xt.pngFigure 6 Bakken LTO 2017 vintage Normal versus XTFigure 6: Trajectories for cumulative net cash flow (NCF) versus time for the average Bakken 2017 vintage well comparing two alternatives for recovery of equity. XT, recovery of equity first, then debt (blue dotted line). Normal, recovery of debt first, then equity (red dotted line). Black line, actual. Both scenarios with $60/bo and $2,50/Mcf at the wellhead.https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/e09d5-table-3-i-and-o-for-the-2017-vintage-at-60.pngTable 3 I and O for the 2017 vintage at 60Table 3: Some key inputs and outputs from the economic analysis of the average 2017 well started in Jan-17 and with a future projected oil price at WH of $60/bo and $2,50/Mcf.https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/6604e-table-2-i-and-o-for-the-2017-vintage-at-50.pngTable 2 I and O for the 2017 vintage at 50Table 2: Some key inputs and outputs from the economic analysis of the average 2017 well started in Jan-17 and with a future projected oil price at WH of $50/bo and $2,50/Mcf.https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/aeba9-figure-5-bakken-lto-2017-vintage-payout-trajectories-50-and-60.pngFigure 5 Bakken LTO 2017 vintage payout trajectories 50 and 60Figure 5: Trajectories for cumulative net cash flow (NCF) versus time for the average Bakken 2017 vintage well with projected oil price at WH of respectively $50/bo (blue dotted line) and $60/bo (red dotted line) as from May 2018. Black line, actual.https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/00098-figure-4-2017-vintage-well-profile-by-quarter-per-apr-2018.pngFigure 4 2017 vintage well profile by quarter per Apr 2018Figure 4: The semilog chart above (for Bakken North Dakota) has been lifted from shaleprofile.com and shows developments for the average well of 2017 vintage by quarter (ref the legend) for cumulative oil recovered (horizontal axis) versus the daily oil production (log scale and vertical axis). These kind of plots has been and is widely used within the oil industry to get an early idea about the EUR for a field/well. The chart above now suggests that the EUR for the average 2017 well trends towards a EUR of 400 kbo (gross). The chart above is based upon actual reported NDIC data as per April 2018.https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/b524a-figure-3-bakken-lto-well-profiles-2014-2015-and-2016-vintages.pngFigure 3 Bakken LTO well profiles 2014 2015 and 2016 vintagesFigure 3: The chart shows actual oil (LTO) flow versus time for the average well of 2014, 2015 and 2016 vintages and near future projected flow. The embedded table lists projected oil (gross) recovered by end 2020.https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/3509d-figure-2-trajectories-towards-payout-for-the-2014-2015-and-2016-bakken-lto-vintages.pngFigure 2 Trajectories towards payout for the 2014 2015 and 2016 Bakken LTO vintagesFigure 2: The chart shows the trajectories for recovery of the well costs (investment) for the average wells of 2014, 2015 and 2016 vintages all started in January. The lines show actual and the dotted lines projected recovery of employed capital with a sustained wellhead price of $60/bo as from May-18 and towards the end of 2020.https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/ea1ca-table-1-summary-bakken-60-and-73.pngTable 1 Summary Bakken 60 and 73Table 1: Table 1 summarizes some metrics from scenarios for the Bakken with no wells added from 2019.2020-05-28T20:25:00+00:00monthlyhttps://runelikvern.com/https-shaleprofile-com/2020-05-28T20:10:22+00:00weekly0.6https://runelikvern.com/https-www-oilystuffblog-com/2020-05-28T20:10:17+00:00weekly0.6https://runelikvern.com/privacy-policy/2020-05-28T19:57:46+00:00weekly0.6https://runelikvern.com/terms-and-conditions/2020-05-28T19:48:10+00:00weekly0.6https://runelikvern.com/comments/2020-05-28T19:45:54+00:00weekly0.6https://runelikvern.com/contact/2020-05-28T19:35:40+00:00weekly0.6https://runelikvern.com/2020/01/09/bakken-something-about-eurs-pdp-reserves-and-r-over-p-ratio/https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/deffa-figure-1-bakken-split-produced-and-pdp-oct-19-3189557392-1578602461426.pngFigure 1 Bakken split produced and PDP Oct 192020-05-28T15:47:50+00:00monthlyhttps://runelikvern.com/about/2020-05-28T02:00:04+00:00weekly0.6https://runelikvern.com/blog/2020-05-28T01:37:44+00:00weekly0.6https://runelikvern.com/2018/08/21/the-price-of-oil/2020-05-28T01:06:50+00:00monthlyhttps://runelikvern.com/blog-2/2020-05-27T21:15:54+00:00weekly0.6https://runelikvern.com/contact-2/2018-08-04T01:51:52+00:00weekly0.6https://runelikvern.com/2018/06/14/the-powers-of-fossil-fuels-an-update-with-data-per-2017/https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/67906-fig-7-china-and-usa-year-over-year-changes-in-debt-2000-to-2017.pngFig 7 China and USA Year over Year changes in Debt 2000 to 2017https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/69350-fig-6-total-world-debt-2002-to-2017-e1530058821116.pngFig 6 Total World Debt 2002 to 2017https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/cddff-fig-5-crude-oil-natural-gas-coal-prices-2000-to-2017.pngFig 5 Crude Oil, Natural Gas, Coal prices 2000 to 2017https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/c752f-fig-4-world-yoy-changes-in-fossil-fuel-consumption-vs-solar-and-wind-2000-to-2017.pngFig 4 World YoY changes in Fossil Fuel consumption vs Solar and Wind 2000 to 2017https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/bf552-fig-3-world-fossil-fuel-vs-wind-and-solar-1990-to-2017.pngFig 3 World Fossil Fuel vs Wind and Solar 1990 to 2017https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/62433-fig-2-world-wind-and-solar-consumption-1990-to-2017.pngFig 2 World Wind and Solar consumption 1990 to 2017Figure 2: The stacked areas in the chart above show the developments in the world’s consumption (production) of energy from the renewables (solar [yellow] and wind [turquoise]) from 1990 to 2017.https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/d2da7-fig-1-world-energy-consumption-1800-to-2017-vs-world-gdp-1980-to-2017-e1528939247704.pngFig 1 World Energy consumption 1800 to 2017 vs World GDP 1980 to 2017Figure 1: The chart shows the developments in total world energy consumption split on sources as of 1800 and per 2017. Energy sources are stacked according to when these were introduced into the world’s energy mixture. The black line (plotted versus the left hand scale) shows development in the world’s GDP in current US dollars since 1980 based on data from the International Monetary Fund (IMF). 2018-06-18T04:20:26+00:00monthlyhttps://runelikvern.com/2017/10/29/world-crude-oil-supplies-per-july-2017/https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/c5edc-figure-15-us-commercial-stocks-jan-14-oct-17.pngFIGURE 15 US COMMERCIAL STOCKS JAN 14 OCT 17Figure 15: The chart show developments in US total petroleum stocks (stacked area, right hand scale) by products since January 2014 and per October 20th 2017. Data are exclusive SPR. Developments in the oil price (WTI) are shown as a black line against the left hand scale.https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/adf22-figure-14-oecd-petroleum-stocks-jan-o7-jul-17.pngFIGURE 14 OECD PETROLEUM STOCKS JAN O7 JUL 17Figure 14: The stacked areas show development in OECD petroleum stock developments since January 2007 and per July 2017. Data for US includes SPR.https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/e74c1-figure-13-oecd-petroleum-consumption-jan-07-jul-17.pngFIGURE 13 OECD PETROLEUM CONSUMPTION JAN 07 JUL 17Figure 13: The areas in the chart show the development in petroleum consumption for the US [red area], OECD Europe [yellow area], and other OECD (which includes Canada, Japan and South Korea) [blue area]. The chart is complemented with lines showing smoothed 12 month moving averages (12 MMA) for the presented OECD countries/regions. The oil price (Brent spot) black dotted line, is shown against the left axis.https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/5fdeb-figure-12-iraq-oil-supplies-vs-no-of-oil-rigs.pngFIGURE 12 IRAQ OIL SUPPLIES VS NO OF OIL RIGSFigure 12: The chart shows crude oil supplies from Iraq versus the number of oil rigs since January 2007. NOTE: Baker Hughes reports data on oil rigs in Iraq as from June 2012.https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/f055a-figure-11-saudi-arabia-oil-supplies-vs-no-of-oil-rigs.pngFIGURE 11 SAUDI ARABIA OIL SUPPLIES VS NO OF OIL RIGSFigure 11: The chart shows crude oil supplies from Saudi Arabia versus the number of oil rigs since January 2007.https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/f674f-figure-10-uae-oil-supplies-vs-no-of-oil-rigs.pngFIGURE 10 UAE OIL SUPPLIES VS NO OF OIL RIGSFigure 10: The chart shows crude oil supplies from United Arab Emirates (UAE) versus number of oil rigs since January 2007.https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/0e0aa-figure-09-kuwait-oil-supplies-vs-no-of-oil-rigs.pngFIGURE 09 KUWAIT OIL SUPPLIES VS NO OF OIL RIGSFigure 09: The chart shows crude oil supplies from Kuwait versus the number of oil rigs since January 2007.https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/39519-figure-08-libya-oil-suppliies-vs-no-of-oil-rigs.pngFIGURE 08 LIBYA OIL SUPPLIIES VS NO OF OIL RIGSFigure 08: The chart shows crude oil supplies from Libya versus the number of oil rigs since January 2007.https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/094b8-figure-07-opec-oil-supplies-vs-no-of-oil-rigs-jan-07-jul-17.pngFIGURE 07 OPEC OIL SUPPLIES VS NO OF OIL RIGS JAN 07 JUL 17Figure 07: The stacked areas show development in crude oil supplies from OPEC(13) and the color coding and grading for individual countries. Green for Africa, yellow for South America and red for Middle East plotted versus the right hand scale. The individual countries active oil rigs (from (Baker Hughes) are shown as stacked lines and plotted versus the left hand scale. NOTE: Baker Hughes does not report rigs for Iran and for Iraq as of June 2012 (which explains the upward jump in June 2012).https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/7d6ed-figure-06-opec-oil-supplies-vs-the-oil-price-jan-07-jul-17.pngFIGURE 06 OPEC OIL SUPPLIES VS THE OIL PRICE JAN 07 JUL 17Figure 06: The stacked areas show development in crude oil supplies from OPEC(13) and the color coding and grading for individual countries. Green for Africa, yellow for South America and red for Middle East plotted versus the right hand scale. The oil price (Brent spot) is plotted versus the left hand scale.2017-10-29T18:25:29+00:00monthlyhttps://runelikvern.com/2017/10/08/a-little-on-the-profitability-of-the-bakkennd/https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/6306f-figure-11-specific-loe-by-vintage.pngFigure 11 specific LOE by vintageFigure 11: Chart shows estimated and projected development in specific LOE for the average well by 2014, 2015 and 2016 vintages towards the end of 2019.https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/6e770-figure-10-specific-interest-costs-with-60.pngFigure 10 specific interest costs with 60Figure 10: The chart shows developments towards end 2019 in estimated gross specific interests costs/expenses (this is before any corporate “tax rebate” of 35% is applied) for the average well for the 2014, 2015 and 2016 vintages, for which the recovery profile for employed capital was shown in figure 04 further up. Now with a sustained $60/bo at the wellhead as from Oct-17. Effective interest of 6% used on outstanding debts (and equity).https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/19c01-figure-09-specific-interest-costs-with-40.pngFigure 09 specific interest costs with 40Figure 09: The chart shows developments towards end 2019 in estimated gross specific interests costs/expenses (this is before any corporate “tax rebate” of 35% is applied) for the average well for the 2014, 2015 and 2016 vintages, for which the recovery profile for employed capital was shown in figure 03 further up. This is with a sustained $40/bo at the wellhead as from Oct-17. Effective interest of 6% used on outstanding debts (and equity).https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/9c70c-figure-08-development-in-differentials-with-2014-as-baseline.pngFigure 08 development in differentials with 2014 as baselineFigure 08: The chart shows how the differential cumulative for LTO extraction has developed for the 2015 (blue line) and 2016 (red line) average well using the 2014 average well as a baseline.https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/8eea8-figure-07-well-profiles.pngFigure 07 well profilesFigure 07: Chart shows actual developments in oil (LTO) flow for the average well of 2014, 2015 and 2016 vintages and near future projected flow. https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/95889-figure-06-specific-loe.pngFigure 06 specific LOEFigure 06: The scatter chart shows specific LOE ($/bo) versus oil flow per calendar day for 81 wells from various operators based on Joint Interest Billings (JIBs).https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/834ad-figure-05-payout-trajectories-by-month.pngFigure 05 payout trajectories by monthFigure 05: The chart shows the actual and estimated trajectories for the recovery of employed capital (investment) towards the end of 2019 for average 2014 wells at various start up months and with the wellhead price sustained at $40/bo as from Oct-17.https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/cea9e-figure-04-payout-trajectories-with-60.pngFigure 04 payout trajectories with 60Figure 04: The chart shows the trajectories towards recovery of the well costs (investment) for average wells of 2014, 2015 and 2016 vintages started in January. The lines show actual and the dotted lines projected recovery of employed capital with a projected sustained wellhead price of $60/bo as from Oct-17 and estimates towards the end of 2019. More about the assumptions used at the end of this article.https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/10d3f-figure-03-payout-trajectories-with-40.pngFigure 03 payout trajectories with 40Figure 03: The chart shows the trajectories towards recovery of the well costs (investment) for average wells of 2014, 2015 and 2016 vintages started in January. The lines show actual and the dotted lines projected recovery of employed capital with a projected sustained wellhead price of $40/bo as from Oct-17 and estimates towards the end of 2019. More about the assumptions used at the end of this article.https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/0e624-figure-02-bakken-lto-and-gross-specific-interest.pngFigure 02 Bakken LTO and gross specific interestFigure 02: The chart above shows development in Light Tight Oil (LTO) extraction from the Bakken in North Dakota [green area] as of January 2009 and per July 2017. The black line [lh scale] shows development in the estimated gross specific interest cost based on development in the estimated employed capital as shown in figure 01. Specific interest cost is not adjusted for legacy flow prior to 2009.2017-10-08T18:26:01+00:00monthlyhttps://runelikvern.com/2017/06/22/developments-in-energy-consumption-and-private-and-public-debt-per-2016/https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/db780-figure-8-china-energy-consumption-and-debt.pngFigure 8 China energy consumption and debtFigure 8: China, developments in total energy consumption split on sources [rh scale]. Private and total [private and public] changes to debt shown as lines [lh scale].https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/969b0-figure-7-usa-energy-consumption-and-debt.pngFigure 7 USA energy consumption and debtFigure 7: USA, developments in total energy consumption split on sources [rh scale]. Private and total [private and public] changes to debt shown as lines [lh scale].https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/ef9ce-figure-6-uk-energy-consumption-and-debt.pngFigure 6 UK energy consumption and debtFigure 6: U.K., developments in total energy consumption split on sources [rh scale]. Private and total [private and public] changes to debt shown as lines [lh scale].https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/448bd-figure-5-italy-energy-consumption-and-debt.pngFigure 5 Italy energy consumption and debtFigure 5: Italy, developments in total energy consumption split on sources [rh scale]. Private and total [private and public] changes to debt shown as lines [lh scale].https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/ab861-figure-4-spain-energy-consumption-and-debt.pngFigure 4 Spain energy consumption and debtFigure 4: Spain, developments in total energy consumption split on sources [rh scale]. Private and total [private and public] changes to debt shown as lines [lh scale].https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/fa0d6-figure-3-japan-energy-consumption-debt-2016.pngFigure 3 Japan energy consumption debt 2016Figure 3: Japan, developments in total energy consumption split on sources [rh scale]. Private and total [private and public] changes to debt shown as lines [lh scale].https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/a85ce-figure-2-yoy-debt-growth-china-and-usa.pngFigure 2 YoY debt growth China and USAFigure 2: The columns show Year over Year (YoY) growth in total private and public debt for the years 2000 - 2016 for USA (blue), China (red) and their total (black).https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/b0991-figure-1-4-big-economies-debt-and-gdp.pngFigure 1 4 big economies debt and GDPFigure 1: The chart above shows [stacked areas] developments in total private and public debt in Japan (black/grey), Euro area (yellow), US (blue) and China (red). In the chart is also shown [stacked lines] developments on the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the same 4 economies. NOTE: All data are market value. The GDP (lines) have been stacked. The bottom line shows Japan, next is (Euro area + Japan) and the top line [China] also shows the total for the 4 presented economies. Data on private and public debt from Bank for International Settlements (BIS). Data on GDP from the World Bank [WB]. WB GDP data for 2016 were not publicly available as this was posted. Note that total GDP for these 4 economies declined from 2014 to 2015.2017-06-22T20:35:47+00:00monthlyhttps://runelikvern.com/2017/03/19/norwegian-crude-oil-reserves-and-extraction-per-2016/https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/da456-figure-10-skarv-relative-depletion.pngFIGURE 10 SKARV RELATIVE DEPLETIONFigure 10: The chart above shows the development of relative remaining reserves (black line and left hand scale), annualized yield (red line and right hand scale) and the annual moving average of the depletion rate (blue dotted lines, right hand scale) for crude oil extraction from the Skarv discovery/field. At end 2016 NPD estimated Skarv to contain 120 Mb with original recoverable crude oil.https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/16143-figure-09-skarv-actual-oil-production.pngFIGURE 09 SKARV ACTUAL OIL PRODUCTIONFigure 09: The chart above shows the development of crude oil extraction (green area and right hand scale), annualized (12 MMA) extraction rate (black line and right hand scale) for the Skarv discovery/field. At end 2016 NPD estimated Skarv to contain 120 Mb with original recoverable crude oil.https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/765ff-figure-08-norway-status-on-extracted-remaining-and-not-sanctioned.pngFIGURE 08 NORWAY STATUS ON EXTRACTED REMAINING AND NOT SANCTIONEDFigure 08: The chart above shows the development of total NCS crude oil discoveries since exploration began and as of end 2016 [data from NPD Resource Accounting at end 2016]. The chart is often referred to as a “creaming curve”. The light green portion of the columns shows the development in total extracted, sold and delivered. The dark green portion shows the development in estimated remaining recoverable reserves. The yellow portion shows the development in total estimated reserves in discoveries that are under evaluation and that has not been sanctioned at end 2016. https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/1a0c9-figure-07-norway-discoveries-by-year-and-their-status.pngFIGURE 07 NORWAY DISCOVERIES BY YEAR AND THEIR STATUSFigure 07: The figure shows the history and the status of the total discoveries by year (stacked columns) since oil exploration started on the Norwegian Continental Shelf (NCS) and as of 2016. The light green columns show what has been extracted, sold and delivered. The dark green portion of the columns is total remaining reserves. The yellow portion of the columns shows reserves in discoveries under evaluation. Furthermore, in the chart is also shown annual production (thick black line) for extraction of crude oil since it began in the 1970s. The chart has a table that shows the year of discovery for fields estimated to originally hold more than 1 Giga barrels (Gb) of recoverable crude oil. (Gb; G = Giga, Billion barrels)https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/2bcc5-figure-06-r-over-p-for-ncs-versus-cumulative.pngFIGURE 06 R OVER P FOR NCS VERSUS CUMULATIVEFigure 06: The chart above shows cumulative NCS crude oil extraction versus the R/P ratio for fields/discoveries in the extraction phase at end 2016 plotted against the right hand scale [black dots connected by a black line]. The red line, plotted against the left hand scale, shows the cumulative portion of the crude oil extraction versus the R/P ratio.https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/6b4e4-figure-05-world-crude-oil-and-condensates-with-jan-07-baseline.pngFIGURE 05 WORLD CRUDE OIL AND CONDENSATES WITH JAN 07 BASELINEFigure 05: The figure above shows developments in world crude oil and condensates supplies split on 3 entities, North America [Canada, Mexico and USA], OPEC and other non OPEC, which includes Norway, using January 2007 as a baseline [colored areas and rh scale]. The black line shows the development in the oil price [black line and lh scale].https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/0756d-figure-04-norway-crude-oil-by-vintage-since-2002.pngFIGURE 04 NORWAY CRUDE OIL BY VINTAGE SINCE 2002Figure 04: The figure above shows development of crude oil extraction from sanctioned NCS fields by vintage since 2002 (rh scale) together with the (nominal) oil price (lh scale).https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/8d038-figure-03-norway-crude-oil-by-vintage.pngFIGURE 03 NORWAY CRUDE OIL BY VINTAGEFigure 03: The figure above shows development of crude oil extraction from NCS sanctioned fields that started to flow prior to 2002 and by vintage since 2002 (rh scale) together with the (nominal) oil price (lh scale).https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/e41c9-figure-02-sanctioned-developments-2017-to-2019.pngFIGURE 02 SANCTIONED DEVELOPMENTS 2017 TO 2019Figure 02: The figure above shows a forecast of crude oil production from NCS sanctioned fields which is scheduled to start to flow during the years 2017 to 2019. Any changes to the scheduled startups could affect the forecasts as shown in figures 01 and 02.https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/9123a-figure-01-norwegian-crude-oil-1970-to-2016.pngFIGURE 01 NORWEGIAN CRUDE OIL 1970 TO 2016Figure 01: The chart shows the historical extraction (production) of crude oil (by discovery/field) for the Norwegian Continental Shelf (NCS) with data from the Norwegian Petroleum Directorate (NPD) for the years 1970 - 2016. The chart also includes my forecast for crude oil extraction from discoveries/fields towards 2030 based on reviews on individual fields, NPD’s estimates of remaining recoverable reserves, the development/forecast for the R/P ratio as of end 2016. Further, the chart shows a forecast for total crude oil extraction from sanctioned discoveries/fields (green area, refer also figure 02) and expected contribution from Johan Sverdrup phase I (blue area) [at end 2016 estimated at 1.78 Gb; [Gb, Giga (Billion) barrels, refer also figure 07] and this development phase is now scheduled to start flowing in late 2019.2017-03-20T17:15:34+00:00monthlyhttps://runelikvern.com/2016/10/03/will-growing-costs-of-new-oil-supplies-knock-against-declining-consumers-affordability/https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/6eef9-fig-8-china-and-us-private-and-public-debt-since-2000.pngfig-8-china-and-us-private-and-public-debt-since-2000Figure 8: The chart shows Year over Year (YoY) growth in private and public debt for the world's 2 biggest economies, the US [blue line] and China [red line] and their total [black line] from Q1-2000 and as of Q1-2016.https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/96719-fig-7-us-commercial-petroleum-stocks-developments.pngfig-7-us-commercial-petroleum-stocks-developmentsFigure 7: The chart above shows development in US commercial stocks of petroleum, by some products, since Jan-14 [stacked areas, rh scale] together with the development in the oil price (WTI) [black line, lh scale].https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/87b33-fig-6-us-petroleum-demand-developments.pngfig-6-us-petroleum-demand-developmentsFigure 6: The chart above shows development in annualized [52 weeks moving averages] US total petroleum consumption [blue line] and storage build [red line] both rh scale. The black line, lh scale, shows development in the oil price (WTI). Consumption and storage developments are relative to Janaury 2014 (baseline). NOTE, changes in consumption and stocks are stacked, thus the red line also shows total annualized changes in demand.https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/426bd-fig-5-oecd-petroleum-stock-developments.pngfig-5-oecd-petroleum-stock-developmentsFigure 5: The chart above show development in OECD petroleum stock developments. US believed to include SPR.https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/816e4-fig-4-oecd-petroleum-consumption-developments.pngfig-4-oecd-petroleum-consumption-developmentsFigure 4: The chart above shows development in petroleum consumption for the US [red area], OECD Europe [yellow area], and other OECD (which includes Canada, Japan and South Korea) [blue area]. The chart is complemented with lines showing smoothed 12 month moving averages (12 MMA) for the presented OECD countries/regions. The oil price (Brent spot) is shown against the left axis.https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/703b9-fig-3-world-crude-oil-relative-development-since-jan-07.pngfig-3-world-crude-oil-relative-development-since-jan-07Figure 3: The stacked areas in the chart above shows relative development in crude oil supplies split on some economic entities from January - 07 and per June -16. The oil price [Brent spot] is shown against the left axis.https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/19d1c-fig-2-world-crude-oil-by-some-entities-since-jan-07.pngfig-2-world-crude-oil-by-some-entities-since-jan-07Figure 2: The stacked areas in the chart above shows development in crude oil supplies split on some economic entities from January - 07 and per June -16. The oil price [Brent spot] is shown against the left axis.https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/2f3c2-fig-1-world-crude-oil-relative-to-jan-07.pngfig-1-world-crude-oil-relative-to-jan-07Figure 1: The stacked areas in the chart above shows changes to crude oil supplies split with North America [North America = Canada + Mexico + US], OPEC and other non OPEC [Other non OPEC = World - (OPEC + North America)] with January 2007 as a baseline and per June 2016. Developments in the oil price (Brent spot, black line) are shown against the left axis.2016-10-04T22:52:31+00:00monthlyhttps://runelikvern.com/2016/09/06/status-of-norwegian-natural-gas-at-end-of-2015-and-forecasts-towards-2025/https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/8026e-figure-6-eu-actual-nat-gas-consumption-and-forecast-supplies-and-demand-towards-2025.pngfigure-6-eu-actual-nat-gas-consumption-and-forecast-supplies-and-demand-towards-2025Figure 6: The stacked areas show actual and forecast consumption of natural gas for EU (EU and Norway has been totaled), its production (blue area), pipelined imports (red area) and Liquified Natural Gas (LNG) imports (yellow area). Pipelined imports are primarily from Russia and North Africa (Algeria and Libya). In recent years, most LNG has come from Qatar, Algeria and Nigeria. The forecast for EU+ Norway production reflects the recent curtailment from the Goningen gas field in the Netherlands. The forecast for EU’s natural gas consumption towards 2025 (dotted black line) is based on EUs projections.https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/386c7-figure-5-imports-of-norwegian-pipelined-gas-by-countries.pngfigure-5-imports-of-norwegian-pipelined-gas-by-countriesFigure 5: The chart above with the stacked columns shows the pipelined imports of natural gas from Norway by some European countries as from 2001 to 2015.https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/1eca8-figure-4-norwegian-natural-gas-vs-crude-oil-discoveries-per-2015.pngfigure-4-norwegian-natural-gas-vs-crude-oil-discoveries-per-2015Figure 4: The chart above shows NCS discoveries, their estimated recoverable crude oil reserve versus natural gas reserves and their evaluation status. It is the total petroleum reserves, their location and potential for coordination [including the use of existing infrastructure] that form the economic basis for any developments. Due to scaling the chart does not include Johan Sverdrup [under development] and Johan Castberg (Barents Sea).https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/31b3a-figure-3-norwegian-natural-gas-discoveries-and-status.pngfigure-3-norwegian-natural-gas-discoveries-and-statusFigure 3: The figure shows the history and the status of the total natural gas discoveries by vintage (stacked columns) since exploration started on the NCS and as of the end of 2015. The rose colored portion of the columns show what has been recovered, sold and delivered. The red portion of the columns is total estimated remaining reserves. The yellow portion of the columns shows reserves in discoveries under evaluation. Furthermore, in the chart is also shown annual production of natural gas since production began in the late 1970s (thick black line). The chart also includes a table that shows the year of discovery for fields estimated to hold more than 100 Giga cubic meters (Gcm = Bcm; Billion cubic meters) of recoverable natural gas.https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/6342f-figure-2-norwegian-natural-gas-production-expressed-by-reserves-over-production-ratio.pngfigure-2-norwegian-natural-gas-production-expressed-by-reserves-over-production-ratioFigure 2: The chart above with the stacked boxes shows the R/P ratio for the fields with meaningful rates of natural gas extraction and the rest have been lumped together with others [brown box]. The sum of the areas of the boxes represents total estimated remaining gas reserves for NCS as of the end of 2015. The chart also shows NPD’s recent forecast towards 2020, my forecast towards 2025 and IEA WEO’s 2012 forecast towards 2035.https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/62536-figure-1-norwegian-natural-gas-production-per-2015-and-forecasts-to-2025.pngfigure-1-norwegian-natural-gas-production-per-2015-and-forecasts-to-2025Figure 1: The chart above shows development in natural gas exports from production installations on the Norwegian Continental Shelf (NCS) as reported by the Norwegian Petroleum Directorate (NPD) from 1996 to 2015 and with my forecast for delivery potential towards 2025. The chart also shows the band of NPD forecasts; green line upper projection, orange line lower projection. NPD’s central projection is in about the middle of the green and orange lines. The black dotted line is the forecast from the International Energy Agency’s World Energy Outlook 2012 (IEA WEO 2012). Numbers are believed to be gross exports from the production installations and thus not adjusted for “shrinkage” from Natural Gas Liquids (NGL) extraction, primarily at Kollsnes and Kårstø. The NGL extraction reduces total sales gas volumes with around 4% relative to what is exported from the producing installations. Numbers in Gcm, Giga cubic meters (Gcm = Bcm; Billion cubic meters)2016-09-06T15:43:56+00:00monthlyhttps://runelikvern.com/2016/08/21/the-bakken-a-little-about-eur-and-rp/https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/318b1-fig-6-flow-vs-gor-for-riverview-102-32h.pngFIG 6 FLOW VS GOR FOR RIVERVIEW 102 32HFigure 6: The well presented above had about 3,000 bo/d when started in Jun-15 and was in June-16 down to about 400 bo/d, that is a decline of about 86% over 12 months (one year), ref also figure 4. As can be seen in figure 5 the growth rate for the total for the presented well has slowed considerably. This well was on the confidential status until Nov-15, thus actual number of days in operation and the data on natural gas production was not disclosed by NDIC before Nov-15. Oil runs were used as a proxy for production for Jun-15 - Oct-15.https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/f2be5-fig-5-bakken-development-in-cumulatives-vs-time-top-10-wells.pngFIG 5 BAKKEN DEVELOPMENT IN CUMULATIVES VS TIME TOP 10 WELLSFigure 5: The chart above shows development in LTO totals for the top 10 wells in the Bakken (ND) since Jan-08 and from these started to flow and as per Jun-16.https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/892c2-fig-4-bakken-top-10-wells-vs-months-of-flow.pngFIG 4 BAKKEN TOP 10 WELLS VS MONTHS OF FLOWFigure 4: The chart above shows developments in monthly LTO extraction since starting up of the top 10 wells post Jan-08 in the Bakken (ND). https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/74d57-fig-3-bakken-monthly-ncf-vs-cumulative.pngFIG 3 BAKKEN MONTHLY NCF VS CUMULATIVEFigure 3: The chart above shows an estimate in development of cumulative net cash flows post CAPEX in manufacturing LTO wells in the Bakken (ND) as of January 2009 and as of June 2016 (red area and rh scale) and estimated monthly net cash flows post CAPEX (black columns and lh scale).https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/021bc-fig-2-bakken-development-in-r-over-p-ratio.pngFIG 2 BAKKEN DEVELOPMENT IN R OVER P RATIOFigure 2: The chart above shows the estimates for the developments in the annual R/P (Reserves over Production) ratio for Bakken (ND) based on a EUR of 320 kbo for the average well as from Jan-08 and as per Jun-16. NOTE: The R/P ratio gives no information about the extraction level.https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/7edac-fig-1-bakken-cumulative-vs-monthly.pngFIG 1 BAKKEN CUMULATIVE VS MONTHLYFigure 1: In the chart above the about 10,000 wells with 12 months of flow or more [started as of Jan-08 - Jul-15] has been split into 5 categories [ref the legend] and the average monthly flow versus total [for the average] has been plotted for each category. Cut off has been made after 72 months (6 years) as the declining number of wells over time makes the calculations susceptible to noise like from refracking in the tail and because of a declining well population. This method makes it possible to identify the EUR trajectories for each category of wells. The average well in the Bakken now follows a trajectory 2-4% below the green line [wells above 75 kbo and less than 100 kbo after the first 12 months of flow]. The colored dotted lines [sloping upwards to the right] connects each category after the first 12, 24, 36, etc months of flow.2016-09-02T13:59:22+00:00monthlyhttps://runelikvern.com/2016/06/24/oil-interest-rates-and-debt/https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/c4264-figure-7-us-commercial-petroleum-stocks.pngFIGURE 7 US COMMERCIAL PETROLEUM STOCKSFigure 7: The chart above shows development in US commercial stocks of petroleum, by some products, since Jan-14 [stacked areas, rh scale] together with the development in the oil price (WTI) [black line, lh scale].https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/a9e9d-figure-6-statoil-equity-production-and-gross-debt.pngFIGURE 6 STATOIL EQUITY PRODUCTION AND GROSS DEBTFigure 6: The figure above shows developments in Statoil’s gross interest-bearing financial liabilities, net income and development in equity volumes split on liquids and natural gas in Norway and international. Statoil reported a net negative income of 37.3 GNOK in 2015 due to lower prices and impairment losses. NOTE: Equity volumes are higher than entitlement volumes.https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/77346-figure-5-oil-price-and-oustanding-energy-bonds.pngFIGURE 5 OIL PRICE AND OUSTANDING ENERGY BONDSFigure 5: Brent oil price since Jan 2000 [rh scale] together with growth in energy companies outstanding bonds since Jan 2006 [lh scale]. NOTE: The lines for energy bonds are not stacked.https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/2accc-figure-4-bis-figure-of-energy-bonds.pngFIGURE 4 BIS FIGURE OF ENERGY BONDSFigure 4: Figure from BIS report [link below] on growth in debt for energy companies.https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/8a0c4-figure-3-global-energy-consumption-per-2015.pngFIGURE 3 GLOBAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION PER 2015Figure 3: Chart shows global development in energy consumption split on energy sources since 1800 and as of 2015.https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/733cc-figure-2-some-items-and-oil-at-50-dollar.pngFIGURE 2 SOME ITEMS AND OIL AT 50 DOLLARFigure 2: Common for the 8 items in the figure above is that these now (Mid April 2016) sell for $40 - $50 and they all required some energy input and/or used derivatives of crude oil to become commercial objects. NOTE: The price for several of the items is what was asking price at Amazon.com (costs for handling, shipping and customs may be added). Primarily refineries buy crude oil to turn it into commercial products like gasoline, diesel, kerosene, lubricants etc. One of the items in figure 2 is very special, and it is not the rose colored glasses.https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/d51ad-figure-1-us10-year-t-and-cost-for-oil.pngFIGURE 1 US10 YEAR T AND COST FOR OILFigure 1: Chart that shows the development of [extraction] cost of oil and interest rates (US 10 Year Treasuries) has developed since 2000 and a likely trajectory for oil extraction costs.2016-07-08T13:08:19+00:00monthlyhttps://runelikvern.com/2016/04/06/the-bakken-lto-extraction-in-retrospect-and-a-forecast-of-near-future-developments/https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/78034-figure-7-parshall-actual-2008-to-end-2015.pngFIGURE 7 PARSHALL ACTUAL 2008 TO END 2015Figure 7: The Parshall pool/field in Mountrail county is where the Bakken LTO took of from and Parshall has favorable geological properties that made it a sweet spot.https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/d4bde-figure-6-generic-company-and-bond-hurdles.pngFIGURE 6 GENERIC COMPANY AND BOND HURDLESFigure 6: The chart shows how the net cumulative cash flow from operations for the 2 price scenarios [ref figure 5] as they encounter the bond hurdles which are shown stacked along the time axis.https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/05b9e-figure-5-generic-company-net-cash-flow-and-cumulative.pngFIGURE 5 GENERIC COMPANY NET CASH FLOW AND CUMULATIVEFigure 5: The chart shows the monthly net cash flow from operations [columns and left hand scale] and the cumulative net cash flow from operations [lines and right hand scale] versus time. {Red columns/line with wellhead price at $40/bo. Blue columns/line with wellhead price at $60/bo} NOTE: Scaling of left hand vertical axis. https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/827c1-figure-4-extraction-profile-the-generic-company.pngFIGURE 4 EXTRACTION PROFILE THE GENERIC COMPANYFigure 4: The chart shows actual total LTO extracted by the generic company acting as an operator and how the volumes are split between royalties, other partners with Working Interests (WI) and the company’s Net Revenue Interests (NRI or entitlement volumes). The dotted line shows a forecast of the company’s NRI (entitlement volumes) as from Feb-16 towards end 2019 with no wells added post Jan-16. Working Interest (WI) is the financial obligations of the company in one or several joint ventures (JV). https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/cb536-table-1-whiting-10-ks.pngTABLE 1 WHITING 10 KsTable 1: The table shows some key financial data and metrics for Whiting that was one of the companies studied and that formed the basis for the generic company.https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/ea2dc-figure-3-roi-curve-for-average-bakken-well1.pngFIGURE 3 ROI CURVE FOR AVERAGE BAKKEN WELLFigure 3: The chart above shows development of some Return On Investment (ROI) versus the wellhead oil price and EUR. Included is a table that shows how this translates into Net Present Values (NPV) discount rates. Royalty is the total of ordinary royalties and Over Riding Royalty Interest (ORRI). Return On Investment (ROI), ROI = (Gain from Investment - Cost of Investment) / Cost of Investment https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/3d9da-figure-2-bakken-estimated-net-cash-flow-and-cumulative.pngFIGURE 2 BAKKEN ESTIMATED NET CASH FLOW AND CUMULATIVEFigure 2: The chart above shows an estimate in development of cumulative net cash flows post CAPEX for manufacturing LTO wells in the Bakken (ND) as of January 2009 and as of January 2016 (red area and rh scale) and estimated monthly net cash flows post CAPEX (black columns and lh scale). All costs assumed to incur as the wells were reported starting to flow (this creates some backlog for cumulative costs as these are incurred continuously during the manufacturing of the wells) and the estimates do not include costs of non- flowing and dry wells, water disposal wells, exploration wells, seismic surveys, acreage acquisitions etc. Economic assumptions; royalties of 18%, production tax of 5%, an extraction tax of 5.5%, LOE at $9/Bo, and a weighted interest of 6% on debt (before any corporate tax effects, which now adds around $5/Bo in financial costs) and income from natural gas/NGPL sales (which now and on average grosses around 1.3 Mcf/Bo). Estimates do not include the effects of hedging. Estimates do not include investments in processing/transport facilities and externalities like road upkeep, etc. The purpose with the estimates presented in the chart is to present an approximation of net cash flows and development in total use of primarily debt for manufacturing of LTO wells. The chart serves as a proxy for estimates of the aggregate cash flow for all oil companies in Bakken(ND). Estimates do not include costs of DUCs. On average, one DUC comes with a cost of about $3 - $3.5M. NOTE: A negative cash flow does not automatically translate into an uneconomic/unprofitable project/venture. And vice versa.https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/4a024-figure-1-bakken-actual-and-forecast-end-2017.pngFIGURE 1 BAKKEN ACTUAL AND FORECAST END 2017Figure 1: The chart above show actual LTO extraction from Bakken (ND, MB/TF) [green area], the funding constrained forecast towards end 2017 [grey area] and how LTO extraction is forecast to develop if no producing wells were added post Jan-16 [black dotted line].2016-04-07T19:50:52+00:00monthlyhttps://runelikvern.com/2016/03/29/norwegian-crude-oil-reserves-and-extraction-per-2015/https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/97df3-fig-10-vilje-depletion-development-at-end-2015.pngFIG 10 VILJE DEPLETION DEVELOPMENT AT END 2015Figure 10: The chart above shows the development of relative depletion (black line and left hand scale), annualized yield (red line and right hand scale) and the annual moving average of the depletion rate (blue dotted lines, right hand scale) for crude oil extraction from the Vilje discovery/field. At end 2015 NPD estimated Vilje to have contained 84 Mb with original recoverable crude oil. https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/57c42-fig-09-skarv-depletion-development-at-end-2015.pngFIG 09 SKARV DEPLETION DEVELOPMENT AT END 2015Figure 09: The chart above shows the development of relative depletion (black line and left hand scale), annualized yield (red line and right hand scale) and the annual moving average of the depletion rate (blue dotted lines, right hand scale) for crude oil extraction from the Skarv discovery/field. At end 2015 NPD estimated Skarv to have contained 112 Mb with original recoverable crude oil. https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/36ad2-fig-08-norway-crude-oil-discoveries-and-their-status-vs-oil-price-end-2015.pngFIG 08 NORWAY CRUDE OIL DISCOVERIES AND THEIR STATUS VS OIL PRICE END 2015Figure 08: The chart above shows NCS discoveries in various evaluation phases, their estimated recoverable crude oil reserves versus year of discovery. In the chart is also shown development in the nominal oil price (Brent). Green circles: Resource Category 4F, in planning phase. Yellow circles: Resource Category 5F, development likely, but not clarified. Red circles: Resource Category 7F, not evaluated. NOTE; For reasons of scaling Johan Castberg (discovered in 2011, Category 4F, 540 Mb) in the Barents Sea and above 72 degrees North is not shown. https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/dbb46-fig-07-norway-creaming-curve-and-status-on-crude-oil-reserves-at-end-2015.pngFIG 07 NORWAY CREAMING CURVE AND STATUS ON CRUDE OIL RESERVES AT END 2015Figure 07: The chart above shows the development of total NCS crude oil discoveries since exploration began and as of end 2015 [data from NPD Resource Accounting at end 2015]. The chart is often referred to as a “creaming curve”. The light green portion of the columns shows the development in total extracted, sold and delivered. The dark green portion shows the development in estimated remaining recoverable reserves. The yellow portion shows the development in total estimated reserves in discoveries that are under evaluation and that has not been sanctioned at end 2015. https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/fec53-fig-06-norway-development-in-crude-oil-reserves-and-their-status-at-end-2015.pngFIG 06 NORWAY DEVELOPMENT IN CRUDE OIL RESERVES AND THEIR STATUS AT END 2015Figure 06: The figure shows the history and the status of the total discoveries by year (stacked columns) since oil exploration started on the Norwegian Continental Shelf (NCS) and as of 2015. The light green columns show what has been extracted, sold and delivered. The dark green portion of the columns is total remaining reserves. The yellow portion of the columns shows reserves in discoveries under evaluation. Furthermore, in the chart is also shown annual production (thick black line) for extraction of crude oil since it began in the 1970s. The chart has a table that shows the year of discovery for fields estimated to hold more than 1 Giga barrels (Gb) of recoverable crude oil. (Gb; G = Giga, Billion barrels) https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/734ab-fig-05-norway-cumulative-crude-oil-production-in-2015-vs-r-over-p-ratio.pngFIG 05 NORWAY CUMULATIVE CRUDE OIL PRODUCTION IN 2015 VS R OVER P RATIOFigure 05: The chart above shows cumulative NCS crude oil extraction versus the R/P ratio for fields/discoveries in the extraction phase at end 2015 plotted against the right hand scale [black dots connected by a black line]. The red line, plotted against the left hand scale, shows the cumulative portion of the crude oil extraction versus the R/P ratio.https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/73bf4-fig-04-norway-crude-oil-production-by-vintage-since-2002.pngFIG 04 NORWAY CRUDE OIL PRODUCTION BY VINTAGE SINCE 2002Figure 04: The figure above shows development of crude oil extraction from sanctioned NCS fields by vintage since 2002 (rh scale) together with the (nominal) oil price (lh scale).https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/0a4b7-fig-03-norway-by-vintage-and-the-oil-price-per-2015.pngFIG 03 NORWAY BY VINTAGE AND THE OIL PRICE PER 2015Figure 03: The figure above shows development of crude oil extraction from NCS sanctioned fields that started to flow prior to 2002 and by vintage since 2002 (rh scale) together with the (nominal) oil price (lh scale).https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/a4d2b-fig-02-norway-sanctioned-developments-at-end-2015.pngFIG 02 NORWAY SANCTIONED DEVELOPMENTS AT END 2015Figure 02: The figure above shows a forecast of crude oil production from NCS sanctioned fields which is scheduled to start to flow during the years 2016 to 2019. Any changes to the scheduled startups could affect the forecasts as shown in figures 01 and 02.https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/8f69a-fig-01-norway-actual-crude-oil-2015-and-forecast-to-2030.pngFIG 01 NORWAY ACTUAL CRUDE OIL 2015 AND FORECAST TO 2030Figure 01: The chart shows the historical extraction (production) of crude oil (by discovery/field) for the Norwegian Continental Shelf (NCS) with data from the Norwegian Petroleum Directorate (NPD) for the years 1970 - 2015. The chart also includes my forecast for crude oil extraction from discoveries/fields towards 2030 based on reviews on individual fields, NPD’s estimates of remaining recoverable reserves, the development/forecast for the R/P ratio as of end 2015. Further, the chart shows a forecast for total crude oil extraction from sanctioned discoveries/fields (green area, refer also figure 02) and expected contribution from Johan Sverdrup (blue area) [at end 2015 estimated at 1.76 Gb; [Gb, Giga (Billion) barrels, refer also figure 06] and this development phase is now scheduled to start flowing in late 2019.2016-03-29T20:58:31+00:00monthlyhttps://runelikvern.com/2016/03/15/the-oil-price-some-mar-16-observations-and-thoughts/https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/014fd-figure-12-development-in-us-commercial-stocks-mar16.pngFigure 12 Development in US Commercial Stocks Mar16Figure 12: The chart above shows development in the US commercial petroleum stocks split on products as of January 2014 and early March 2016.https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/7f171-figure-11-development-in-us-propane-consumption.pngFigure 11 Development in US Propane ConsumptionFigure 11: The green line in the chart above shows developments in US propane/propylene supplied (a proxy for consumption) with a trailing 52 week moving average (52 WMA), the orange line, both left hand scale. The black line shows developments in the propane price, spot, Mt Belvieu TX, right hand scale.https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/5e08e-figure-10-development-in-us-distillate-consumption.pngFigure 10 Development in US Distillate ConsumptionFigure 10: The green line in the chart above shows developments in US distillate, including diesel, supplied (a proxy for consumption) with a trailing 52 week moving average (52 WMA), the orange line, both left hand scale. The black line shows developments in the diesel retail price, right hand scale. NOTE: Left hand scaling. https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/7fb98-figure-09-development-in-us-gasoline-consumption.pngFigure 09 Development in US Gasoline ConsumptionFigure 09: The blue line in the chart above shows developments in US gasoline supplied (a proxy for consumption) with a trailing 52 week moving average (52 WMA), the orange line, both left hand scale. The black line shows developments in all grades retail gasoline price and right hand scale. NOTE: Left hand scaling. https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/476dd-figure-08-development-in-us-total-petroleum-consumption.pngFigure 08 Development in US total Petroleum ConsumptionFigure 08: The grey line in the chart above shows developments in US total petroleum supplied (a proxy for consumption) with a trailing 52 week moving average (52 WMA), the green line, both left hand scale. The blue line shows developments in the oil price, Brent spot and right hand scale. NOTE: Left hand scaling. https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/26f36-figure-07-development-in-total-private-and-public-debt-for-china-and-us.pngFigure 07 Development in total Private and Public Debt for China and USFigure 07: The chart above shows annualized total growth in private and public debt for China and the US from Q1 2000 and as of Q3 2015. (Lines are not stacked.) https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/a287f-figure-06-development-in-total-debts-for-4-biggest-economies.pngFigure 06 Development in total debts for 4 biggest EconomiesFigure 06: The chart above shows [stacked areas] developments in total private and public debt in Japan (black/grey), Euro area (yellow), US (blue) and China (red). In the chart is also shown [stacked lines] developments on the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the same 4 economies. NOTE: All data are market value. The GDP (lines) have been stacked. The bottom line shows Japan, next is (Euro area + Japan) and the top line [China] also shows the total for the 4 presented economies. https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/8b8a6-figure-05-some-emes-development-in-private-debt.pngFigure 05 Some EMEs development in private debtFigure 05: The chart shows development in private debt for some Emerging Economies (EMEs) as from Q1 1995 and as of Q3 2015.https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/2e875-figure-04-mckinsey-global-debt.pngFigure 04 McKinsey global debtFigure 04: The chart above shows development in global total debt split on sectors. The table below the chart shows total debt as percentage of Gross Domestic Product (GDP). https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/e3cdd-figure-03-oil-price-and-some-monetary-tools.pngFigure 03 Oil Price and some Monetary ToolsFigure 03: The chart above shows the developments in the oil price [Brent spot, black line. The red line is the smoothed one year moving average] and the time of central banks’ announcements/deployments of available monetary tools to support the global financial markets which the economy relies heavily upon. The financial system is virtual and thus highly responsive. NOTES: The chart suggests some causation between FED policies and movements to the oil price. The US dollar is the world’s major reserve currency and most currencies are joined to it at the hip. Oil is priced in US dollar, which makes it highly connected to US monetary and fiscal policies. 2016-03-15T23:33:49+00:00monthlyhttps://runelikvern.com/2015/11/30/bakkennd-light-tight-oil-update-with-sep-15-ndic-data/https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/4b460-fig-10-time-series-for-some-refracekd-wells.pngFIG 10 TIME SERIES FOR SOME REFRACEKD WELLSFigure 10: The chart shows the time series of some selected wells of 2008 vintage that apparently has been restimulated (refracked) during 2013 and 2014.https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/06dbd-fig-09-eog-and-marathon-2008-vintage.pngFIG 09 EOG AND MARATHON 2008 VINTAGEFigure 09: The chart above shows developments in LTO extraction for the 2008 vintage from the Middle Bakken/ Three Forks formations in the Bakken (ND) as of January 2008 and of September 2015 for EOG and Marathon.https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/86c8c-fig-08-parshall-and-other-mountrail-the-2008-vintage.pngFIG 08 PARSHALL AND OTHER MOUNTRAIL THE 2008 VINTAGEFigure 08: The chart above shows developments in LTO extraction for the 2008 vintage from the Middle Bakken/ Three Forks formations in the Bakken(ND) for Mountrail as of January 2008 and of September 2015 split on Parshall and other Mountrail.https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/e31f9-fig-07-parshall-by-vintage.pngFIG 07 PARSHALL BY VINTAGEFigure 07: The above chart shows developments by vintage in LTO extraction from the Middle Bakken/ Three Forks formations in Bakken (ND) as of January 2008 and of October 2014 for the Parshall pool/field.https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/cdbbb-fig-06-some-bakken-companies-well-averages-and-profitability-bands.pngFIG 06 SOME BAKKEN COMPANIES WELL AVERAGES AND PROFITABILITY BANDSFigure 06: The above chart shows developments in average well first year LTO totals (productivity) by vintage for some companies. The colored columns (at the 2013 and 2015 marks) show projected financial performance based on the average LTO well first year totals. For 2013, the chart is based on: WTI at $100/b and a type well at $10M was found to have a 0% return with a total first year LTO flow at about 50 kb. For 2015, the chart is based on: WTI at $50/b and a type well at $8M was found to have a 0% return with a total first year LTO flow at about 125 kb. The chart show that the well productivity has been on an upward trend. So far the productivity improvements and cost reductions have not fully compensated for the effects from a much lower oil price. The profitability equation of the type well was solved for the equivalent total first year flow for various oil prices and costs on a point forward basis. A lower oil price makes the red columns “push” the others upwards (moves the profitability bands upwards) and vice versa. Wells of the 2015 vintage (per September) are on a trajectory close to those of the 2014 vintage. kb, kilo barrels = 1,000 barrelshttps://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/385f4-fig-05-bakken-lto-normal-distribution-by-vintage.pngFIG 05 BAKKEN LTO NORMAL DISTRIBUTION BY VINTAGEFigure 05: The above chart shows the normal distribution of productivity of the wells by vintage expressed by 12 first months totals for Middle Bakken/Three Forks/Sanish. How to read the chart: The lines show the normal distribution for all studied wells started in 2008 - 2014, ref also the table in the upper left of the chart. 50 % of the 2014 wells have a total first 12 months flow flow of more than 86 kb while 43% were above the average of 92 kb. About 20% of the 2014 wells have a total first 12 months flow of 125 kb or more. kb, kilo barrels = 1,000 barrels https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/8e22b-fig-04-cumulative-net-backs-by-vintage-bakken-sep-15.pngFIG 04 CUMULATIVE NET BACKS BY VINTAGE BAKKEN SEP 15Figure 04: The above chart shows estimates on cumulative net backs at the wellhead for the average Bakken LTO well by vintage.https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/d3618-fig-03-lto-wells-totals-by-vintage-sep-15.pngFIG 03 LTO WELLS TOTALS BY VINTAGE SEP 15Figure 03: The chart show developments in the EUR trajectories for the average LTO well by vintage in the Bakken(ND).https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/72364-fig-02-estimated-ncf-and-cumulatives-bakken-sep-15.pngFIG 02 ESTIMATED NCF AND CUMULATIVES BAKKEN SEP 15Figure 02: The chart above shows an estimate in development of cumulative net cash flows post CAPEX for manufacturing LTO wells in the Bakken (ND) as of January 2009 and as of September 2015 (red area and rh scale) and estimated monthly net cash flows post CAPEX (black columns and lh scale). The assumptions for the chart are WTI oil price (realized price which is netted back to the wellhead), average well costs starting at $8 Million in January 2009 and growing to $10 Million as of January 2011 and $9 Million as of January 2013 with a decline towards $8 Million as of January 2015. All costs assumed to incur as the wells were reported starting to flow (this creates some backlog for cumulative costs as these are incurred continuously during the manufacturing of the wells) and the estimates do not include costs of non- flowing and dry wells, water disposal wells, exploration wells, seismic surveys, acreage acquisitions etc. Economic assumptions; royalties of 16%, production tax of 5%, an extraction tax of 6.5%, OPEX at $5/Bbl, transport (from wellhead to refinery) $12/Bbl and a weighted interest of 6% on debt (before any corporate tax effects, which now adds around $3/Bbl in financial costs) and income from natural gas/NGPL sales (which now and on average grosses around 1.3 Mcf/Bbl). Estimates do not include the effects of hedging. Estimates do not include investments in processing/transport facilities and externalities like road upkeep, etc. The purpose with the estimates presented in the chart is to present an approximation of net cash flows and development in total use of primarily debt for manufacturing of LTO wells. The chart serves as a proxy for estimates of the aggregate cash flow for all oil companies in Bakken(ND). https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/f45d4-fig-01-bakken-lto-sep-15.pngFIG 01 BAKKEN LTO SEP 15Figure 01: The above chart shows developments by vintage in LTO extraction from the Middle Bakken/ Three Forks/Sanish formations in Bakken (ND) as of January 2008 and of September 2015 [right hand scale]. The color grading shows extraction by month. Development in the oil price (WTI) black line is shown versus the left hand scale. 2015-11-30T20:49:05+00:00monthlyhttps://runelikvern.com/2015/11/01/status-of-norwegian-natural-gas-at-end-of-2014-and-forecasts-towards-2025/https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/1672d-fig-6-eu-natural-gas-consumption-production-and-forecast-towards-2025.pngFIG 6 EU NATURAL GAS CONSUMPTION PRODUCTION AND FORECAST TOWARDS 2025Figure 06: The stacked areas show actual and forecast consumption of natural gas for EU (EU and Norway has been totaled), its production (blue area), pipelined imports (red area) and Liquified Natural Gas (LNG) imports (yellow area). Pipelined imports are primarily from Russia and North Africa (Algeria and Libya). In recent years, most LNG has come from Qatar, Algeria and Nigeria. The forecast for EU’s natural gas consumption towards 2025 (dotted black line) is from US Energy Information Administration’s World Energy Outlook 2013 (EIA WEO 2013).https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/28121-fig-5-discoveries-under-evaluation-crude-oil-vs-natural-gas-reserves.pngFIG 5 DISCOVERIES UNDER EVALUATION CRUDE OIL VS NATURAL GAS RESERVESFigure 05: The chart above shows NCS discoveries, their estimated recoverable crude oil reserve versus natural gas reserves and their evaluation status. It is the total petroleum reserves, their location and potential for coordination [including use of existing infrastructure] that form the economic basis for any developments. Due to scaling the chart does not include Johan Sverdrup and Johan Castberg (Barents Sea). https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/2d43a-fig-4-norwegian-natural-gas-discoveries-by-vintage-vs-the-oil-price.pngFIG 4 NORWEGIAN NATURAL GAS DISCOVERIES BY VINTAGE VS THE OIL PRICEFigure 04: The chart above shows NCS discoveries in various evaluation phases, their estimated recoverable natural gas reserves [left hand scale] versus year of discovery. In the chart is also shown development in the nominal oil price (Brent, black line and right hand scale). Green circles: Resource Category 4F, in planning phase. Yellow circles: Resource Category 5F, development likely, but not clarified. Pink circles: Resource Category 7F, not evaluated. NOTE; For reasons of scaling Johan Sverdrup (which is sanctioned, is by NPD estimated to contain about 11 Gcm natural gas) and Johan Castberg in the Barents Sea and above 72 degrees North (both Category 4F) are not shown. https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/ad82b-fig-3-norwegian-status-and-discovery-year-for-natural-gas.pngFIG 3 NORWEGIAN STATUS AND DISCOVERY YEAR FOR NATURAL GASFigure 03: The figure shows the history and the status of the total natural gas discoveries by vintage (stacked columns) since exploration started on the NCS and as of the end of 2014. The rose colored portion of the columns show what has been recovered, sold and delivered. The red portion of the columns is total estimated remaining reserves. The yellow portion of the columns shows reserves in discoveries under evaluation. Furthermore, in the chart is also shown annual production of natural gas since production began in the late 1970s (thick black line). The chart also includes a table that shows the year of discovery for fields estimated to hold more than 100 Giga cubic meters (Gcm = Bcm; Billion cubic meters) of recoverable natural gas. https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/b40fa-fig-2-norwegian-nat-gas-supplies-by-r-over-p-end-2014.pngFIG 2 NORWEGIAN NAT GAS SUPPLIES BY R OVER P END 2014Figure 02: The chart above with the stacked boxes shows the R/P ratio for the fields with meaningful natural gas extraction and the rest have been lumped together with others. The sum of the areas of the boxes represents total EUR for NCS as of the end of 2014. The chart also shows NPD’s recent forecast towards 2019, my forecast towards 2025 and IEA WEO’s 2012 forecast towards 2035.https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/9136b-fig-1-actual-and-forecast-norwegian-natural-gas-supplies-2014.pngFIG 1 ACTUAL AND FORECAST NORWEGIAN NATURAL GAS SUPPLIES 2014Figure 1: The chart above shows development in natural gas exports from production installations on the Norwegian Continental Shelf (NCS) as reported by the Norwegian Petroleum Directorate (NPD) from 1996 to 2014 and with my forecast for delivery potential towards 2025. The chart also shows the NPD forecasts; green line upper projection, orange line lower projection. NPD’s central projection is in about the middle of the green and orange lines. The black dotted line is the forecast from the International Energy Agency’s World Energy Outlook 2012 (IEA WEO 2012). Numbers are believed to be gross exports from the production installations and thus not adjusted for “shrinkage” from Natural Gas Liquids (NGL) extraction, primarily at Kollsnes and Kårstø. The NGL extraction reduces total sales gas volumes with around 4% relative to what is exported from the producing installations. Numbers in Gcm, Giga cubic meters (Gcm = Bcm; Billion cubic meters) 2015-11-02T15:36:58+00:00monthlyhttps://runelikvern.com/2015/09/05/the-oil-price-and-emes-growth-in-credit-and-petroleum-consumption-since-2000/https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/1a104-figure-14-thailand-yoy-relative-developments-in-credit-growth-and-pet-cons.pngFIGURE 14 THAILAND YOY RELATIVE DEVELOPMENTS IN CREDIT GROWTH AND PET CONSFigure 14: The chart shows the YoY relative changes in total private non financial debt [horizontal axis] plotted versus the YoY relative changes in total petroleum consumption [vertical axis] for Thailand from 2001 to 2014. The lines have arrows to show the sequence and developments. To ease identification some years are shown.https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/da47a-figure-13-thailand-yoy-credit-growth-and-total-private-debt.pngFIGURE 13 THAILAND YOY CREDIT GROWTH AND TOTAL PRIVATE DEBTFigure 13: The chart above show developments in total non financial private debt in Thailand [red area, right hand scale]. The black columns show YoY changes in non financial private debt in Thailand by quarter [left hand scale].https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/049eb-figure-12-malaysia-yoy-relative-developments-in-credit-growth-and-pet-cons.pngFIGURE 12 MALAYSIA YOY RELATIVE DEVELOPMENTS IN CREDIT GROWTH AND PET CONSFigure 12: The chart shows the YoY relative changes in total private non financial debt [horizontal axis] plotted versus the YoY relative changes in total petroleum consumption [vertical axis] for Malaysia from 2001 to 2014. The lines have arrows to show the sequence and developments. To ease identification some years are shown.https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/bfa37-figure-11-malaysia-yoy-credit-growth-and-total-private-debt.pngFIGURE 11 MALAYSIA YOY CREDIT GROWTH AND TOTAL PRIVATE DEBTFigure 11: The chart above show developments in total non financial private debt in Malaysia [red area, right hand scale]. The black columns show YoY changes in non financial private debt in Malaysia by quarter [left hand scale].https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/d9077-figure-10-indonesia-yoy-relative-developments-in-credit-growth-and-petroleum-cons.pngFIGURE 10 INDONESIA YOY RELATIVE DEVELOPMENTS IN CREDIT GROWTH AND PETROLEUM CONSFigure 10: The chart shows the YoY relative changes in total private non financial debt [horizontal axis] plotted versus the YoY relative changes in total petroleum consumption [vertical axis] in Indonesia from 2001 to 2014. The lines have arrows to show the sequence and developments. To ease identification some years are shown.https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/ac7e2-figure-09-indonesia-yoy-credit-growth-and-total-private-debt.pngFIGURE 09 INDONESIA YOY CREDIT GROWTH AND TOTAL PRIVATE DEBTFigure 09: The chart above show developments in total non financial private debt in Indonesia [red area, right hand scale]. The black columns show YoY changes in non financial private debt in Indonesia by quarter [left hand scale].https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/b5bed-figure-08-india-yoy-relative-developments-in-credit-growth-and-petroleum-cons.pngFIGURE 08 INDIA YOY RELATIVE DEVELOPMENTS IN CREDIT GROWTH AND PETROLEUM CONSFigure 08: The chart shows the YoY relative changes in total private non financial debt [horizontal axis] plotted versus the YoY relative changes in total petroleum consumption [vertical axis] for India from 2001 to 2014. The lines have arrows to show the sequence and developments. To ease identification some years are shown.https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/fe2b0-figure-07-india-yoy-credit-growth-and-total-private-debt.pngFIGURE 07 INDIA YOY CREDIT GROWTH AND TOTAL PRIVATE DEBTFigure 07: The chart above show developments in total non financial private debt in India [red area, right hand scale]. The black columns show YoY changes in non financial private debt in India by quarter [left hand scale].https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/febfa-figure-06-china-yoy-relative-developments-in-credit-growth-and-petroleum-cons.pngFIGURE 06 CHINA YOY RELATIVE DEVELOPMENTS IN CREDIT GROWTH AND PETROLEUM CONSFigure 06: The chart shows the YoY relative changes in total private non financial debt [horizontal axis] plotted versus the YoY relative changes in total petroleum consumption [vertical axis] for China from 2001 to 2014. The lines have arrows to show the sequence and developments. To ease identification some years are shown.https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/619af-figure-05-china-yoy-credit-growth-and-total-private-debt.pngFIGURE 05 CHINA YOY CREDIT GROWTH AND TOTAL PRIVATE DEBTFigure 05: The chart above show developments in total non financial private debt in China [red area, right hand scale]. The black columns show YoY changes in non financial private debt in China by quarter [left hand scale].2015-09-05T18:01:31+00:00monthlyhttps://runelikvern.com/2015/08/10/world-crude-oil-production-and-the-oil-price-august-2015/https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/8b30f-fig-5-world-crude-oil-and-condensates-supplies-aug-15.pngFIG 5 WORLD CRUDE OIL AND CONDENSATES SUPPLIES AUG 15Figure 5: The chart above shows developments in world supplies of crude oil and condensates from January 1994 to March 2015. The chart also shows possible conceptual trajectories to supply potential and demand [all right hand scale]. The oil price [Brent spot] is plotted against the left hand scale. https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/c3f7d-fig-4-oecd-relative-developments-petroleum-consumption-aug-15.pngFIG 4 OECD RELATIVE DEVELOPMENTS PETROLEUM CONSUMPTION AUG 15Figure 4: The chart above shows the relative developments in the petroleum consumption within OECD and some of its biggest members (right hand scale) together with the oil price (left hand scale). January 2001 = 100 has been used as a baseline. Note that Italy is down about 34% since 2002, Japan is down 24% since 2000, while Canada, a net exporter of oil and gas, saw a growth of around 20% since 2000. Note the right hand y-axis is not zero scaled. https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/74f9f-fig-3-us-commercial-petroleum-stocks-aug-15.pngFIG 3 US COMMERCIAL PETROLEUM STOCKS AUG 15Figure 3: The chart above shows development in the US commercial petroleum stocks split on products as of January 2014 and early August 2015.https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/3397c-fig-2-relative-developments-oil-and-some-currencies-aug-15.pngFIG 2 RELATIVE DEVELOPMENTS OIL AND SOME CURRENCIES AUG 15Figure 2: The chart above shows relative developments in some currencies (exchange rates) versus the US dollar and the oil price (Brent) with 01 January 2014 as a baseline.https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/33b80-fig-1-the-oil-price-and-fed-tools-aug-15.pngFIG 1 THE OIL PRICE AND FED TOOLS AUG 15Figure 1: The chart above shows the developments in the oil price [Brent spot, black line. The red line is the smoothed one year moving average] and the time of central banks’ announcements/deployments of available monetary tools to support the global financial markets which the economy relies heavily upon. The financial system is virtual and thus highly responsive. NOTE: The chart suggests some causation between FED policies and movements to the oil price. The US dollar is the world’s major reserve currency and most currencies are joined to it at the hip. 2015-08-16T21:27:55+00:00monthlyhttps://runelikvern.com/2015/08/03/are-the-light-tight-oil-lto-companies-trying-to-outsmart-mother-nature-with-their-financial-balance-sheets/https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/acb49-table-3-balance-sheet-lto-aug-15.pngTable 3 balance sheet LTO Aug 15Table 3: Main data from the companies’ balance sheets from their SEC 10-K filings for 2014.https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/7e09b-table-2-r-over-p-and-eurs.pngTable 2 R over P and EURsTable 2: R/P ratios derived from actual data versus those derived from companies’ SEC 10-K filings for 2014. PDP numbers derived from actual data versus those derived from companies’ SEC 10-K filings for 2014. Total PDP after adjustments for estimates on the companies’ average WI in 2014. https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/8d248-table-1-flow-and-well-data-aug-15.pngTable 1 flow and well data Aug 15Table 1: The table shows some key data on extraction (production), EURs and number of wells included in the study.https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/3a820-fig-4-whiting-well-productivity-may-15.pngFig 4 Whiting well productivity May 15Figure 4: The chart show development in the EUR trajectories for LTO for wells by vintage and which are operated by Whiting.https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/e9a84-fig-3-oasis-well-productivity-may-15.pngFig 3 Oasis well productivity May 15Figure 3: The chart show development in the EUR trajectories for LTO for wells by vintage and which are operated by Oasis.https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/07651-fig-2-continental-well-productivity-may-15.pngFig 2 Continental well productivity May 15Figure 2: The chart show development in the EUR trajectories for LTO for wells by vintage and which are operated by Continental.https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/5a6c5-fig-1-well-productivity-and-proftiability.pngFig 1 well productivity and proftiabilityFigure 1: The chart above shows developments in average well first year LTO totals (productivity) for some companies and by vintage. The colored columns for 2013 and 2015 show projected financial performance based on average well first year LTO totals. For 2013 the chart is based on: WTI at $98/b and a type well at $10M was found to have a 0% return with a total first year LTO flow at about 50 kb. For 2015 the chart is based on: WTI at $60/b and a type well at $8M was found to have a 0% return with a total first year LTO flow at about 90 kb. The chart illustrates that the well productivity has been on an upward trend. So far the productivity improvements and cost reductions have not fully compensated for the effects from a much lower oil price. The profitability equation of the type well was solved for the equivalent total first year flow for various oil prices and costs on a point forward basis. A lower oil price makes the red columns “push” the other ones upwards (moves the profitability bands upwards). Wells of 2015 vintage (pre May) are on a trajectory close to those of the 2014 vintage. kb, kilo barrels = 1,000 barrels 2015-08-06T15:05:57+00:00monthlyhttps://runelikvern.com/2015/06/18/status-on-the-bakken-red-queen-with-data-as-per-april-2015/https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/61d35-fig-9-xto-bakken-lto-by-vintage-apr-15.pngFIG 9 XTO BAKKEN LTO BY VINTAGE APR 15Figure 9: The chart above shows developments by vintage in LTO extraction for XTO Energy in Bakken (ND) as of January 2008 and of April 2015 [right hand scale]. Development in the oil price (WTI) black line is shown versus the left hand scale. The chart does not include contributions from wells starting to flow prior to 2008 and the contributions from these wells normally diminishes as the wells ages. https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/919b3-fig-8-whiting-bakken-lto-by-vintage-apr-15.pngFIG 8 WHITING BAKKEN LTO BY VINTAGE APR 15Figure 8: The chart above shows developments by vintage in LTO extraction for Continental Resources in Bakken (ND) as of January 2008 and of April 2015 [right hand scale]. Development in the oil price (WTI) black line is shown versus the left hand scale. The chart does not include contributions from wells starting to flow prior to 2008 and the contributions from these wells normally diminishes as the wells ages. https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/504d6-fig-7-statoil-bakken-lto-by-vintage-apr-15.pngFIG 7 STATOIL BAKKEN LTO BY VINTAGE APR 15Figure 7: The chart above shows developments by vintage in LTO extraction for Statoil in Bakken (ND) as of January 2008 and of April 2015 [right hand scale]. Development in the oil price (WTI) black line is shown versus the left hand scale. The chart does not include contributions from wells starting to flow prior to 2008 and the contributions from these wells normally diminishes as the wells ages. https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/21966-fig-6-oasis-bakken-lto-by-vintage-apr-15.pngFIG 6 OASIS BAKKEN LTO BY VINTAGE APR 15Figure 6: The chart above shows developments by vintage in LTO extraction for Oasis Petroleum in Bakken (ND) as of January 2008 and of April 2015 [right hand scale]. Development in the oil price (WTI) black line is shown versus the left hand scale. The chart does not include contributions from wells starting to flow prior to 2008 and the contributions from these wells normally diminishes as the wells ages. The average first year flow for all Oasis’ wells are around 70 kb and 67 kb for those of the 2014 vintage. 47% of the LTO extraction were from the wells that started during the recent 12 months (May 2014 - April 2015). Statoil https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/2b72d-fig-5-marathon-bakken-lto-by-vintage-apr-15.pngFIG 5 MARATHON BAKKEN LTO BY VINTAGE APR 15Figure 5: The chart above shows developments by vintage in LTO extraction for marathon in Bakken (ND) as of January 2008 and of April 2015 [right hand scale]. Development in the oil price (WTI) black line is shown versus the left hand scale. The chart does not include contributions from wells starting to flow prior to 2008 and the contributions from these wells normally diminishes as the wells ages. https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/ac1a1-fig-4-hess-bakken-lto-by-vintage-apr-15.pngFIG 4 HESS BAKKEN LTO BY VINTAGE APR 15Figure 4: The chart above shows developments by vintage in LTO extraction for Hess Bakken Invest in Bakken (ND) as of January 2008 and of April 2015 [right hand scale]. Development in the oil price (WTI) black line is shown versus the left hand scale. The chart does not include contributions from wells starting to flow prior to 2008 and the contributions from these wells normally diminishes as the wells ages. https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/5668b-fig-3-eog-bakken-lto-by-vintage-apr-15.pngFIG 3 EOG BAKKEN LTO BY VINTAGE APR 15Figure 3: The chart above shows developments by vintage in LTO extraction of EOG Resources in Bakken (ND) as of January 2008 and of April 2015 [right hand scale]. Development in the oil price (WTI) black line is shown versus the left hand scale. The chart does not include contributions from wells starting to flow prior to 2008 and the contributions from these wells normally diminishes as the wells ages. https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/d32be-fig-2-continental-bakken-lto-by-vintage-apr-15.pngFIG 2 CONTINENTAL BAKKEN LTO BY VINTAGE APR 15Figure 2: The chart above shows developments by vintage in LTO extraction for Continental Resources in Bakken (ND) as of January 2008 and of April 2015 [right hand scale]. Development in the oil price (WTI) black line is shown versus the left hand scale. The chart does not include contributions from wells starting to flow prior to 2008 and the contributions from these wells normally diminishes as the wells ages. https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/9122e-fig-1-bakken-lto-split-on-companies-apr-15.pngFIG 1 BAKKEN LTO SPLIT ON COMPANIES APR 15Figure 1: The chart above (stacked areas) shows developments in total LTO extraction, split on the 8 presented companies and others. 4 of the studied companies had growth in LTO extraction for the period from December 2014 through April 2015 which are stacked on top. NOTE: The chart does not include contributions from wells starting to flow prior to 2008 for the presented companies and the contributions from these wells are included in others and normally diminishes as the wells ages. 2015-06-18T20:48:50+00:00monthlyhttps://runelikvern.com/2015/06/07/the-bakken-red-queen-is-restrained-with-more-credit/https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/3b28e-fig-9-whiting-well-productivites-by-vintage.pngFIG 9 WHITING WELL PRODUCTIVITES BY VINTAGEFigure 9: The chart shows the development in average total LTO extraction by vintage for LTO wells were Whiting Petroleum was listed as the business owner per March 2015. NOTE: Data for 2014 are not complete with first year totals for all wells. https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/b8f2d-fig-8-whiting-lto-flow-by-vintage.pngFIG 8 WHITING LTO FLOW BY VINTAGEFigure 8: The chart above shows developments by vintage in LTO extraction for Whiting Petroleum in Bakken (ND) as of January 2008 and of March 2015 [right hand scale]. Development in the oil price (WTI) black line is shown versus the left hand scale. NOTES: The chart shows developments in total LTO extraction from wells which Whiting Petroleum was listed as the business owner per March 2015. Whiting’s entitlement volumes needs to be adjusted according to their Working Interest (WI) in each well. The chart does not include contributions from wells starting to flow prior to 2008 and the contributions from these wells normally diminishes as the wells ages. https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/2a02a-fig-7-eog-well-productivities-by-vintage.pngFIG 7 EOG WELL PRODUCTIVITIES BY VINTAGEFigure 7: The chart shows the development in average total LTO extraction by vintage for LTO wells were EOG Resources was listed as the business owner per March 2015. NOTE: Data for 2014 are not complete with first year totals for all wells. https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/5d0a4-fig-6-eog-lto-flow-by-vintage.pngFIG 6 EOG LTO FLOW BY VINTAGEFigure 6: The chart above shows developments by vintage in LTO extraction for EOG Resources in Bakken (ND) as of January 2008 and of March 2015 [right hand scale]. Development in the oil price (WTI) black line is shown versus the left hand scale. NOTES: The chart shows developments in total LTO extraction from wells which EOG Resources were listed as the business owner per March 2015. EOG’s entitlement volumes needs to be adjusted according to their Working Interest (WI) in each well. The chart does not include contributions from wells starting to flow prior to 2008 and the contributions from these wells normally diminishes as the wells ages. https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/6727d-fig-5-continental-well-productivities-by-vintage.pngFIG 5 CONTINENTAL WELL PRODUCTIVITIES BY VINTAGEFigure 5: The chart shows the development in average total LTO extraction by vintage for LTO wells were Continental Resources was listed as the business owner per March 2015. NOTE: Data for 2014 are not complete with first year totals for all wells. https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/5b4c4-fig-4-continental-lto-flow-by-vintage.pngFIG 4 CONTINENTAL LTO FLOW BY VINTAGEFigure 4: The chart above shows developments by vintage in LTO extraction for Continental Resources in Bakken (ND) as of January 2008 and of March 2015 [right hand scale]. Development in the oil price (WTI) black line is shown versus the left hand scale. NOTES: The chart shows developments in total LTO extraction from wells which Continental Resources were listed as the business owner per March 2015. Continental’s entitlement volumes needs to be adjusted according to their Working Interest (WI) in each well. The chart does not include contributions from wells starting to flow prior to 2008 and the contributions from these wells normally diminishes as the wells ages. https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/ec045-fig-3-total-lto-production-and-3-companies.pngFIG 3 TOTAL LTO PRODUCTION AND 3 COMPANIESFigure 3: The chart above (stacked areas) shows developments in LTO extraction by the 3 presented companies and total. NOTE: The chart does not include contributions from wells starting to flow prior to 2008 for the presented companies and the contributions from these wells normally diminishes as the wells ages. https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/062d9-table-1-q1-15-wells-and-production-bakken.pngTABLE 1 Q1 15 WELLS AND PRODUCTION BAKKENTable 1: The table lists some key metrics for the companies studied.https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/e8256-fig-2-estimates-on-cash-flows-for-bakken.pngFIG 2 ESTIMATES ON CASH FLOWS FOR BAKKENFigure 2: The chart above shows an estimate in development of cumulative net cash flows post CAPEX for manufacturing LTO wells in Bakken (ND) as of January 2009 and as of March 2015 (red area and rh scale) and estimated monthly net cash flows post CAPEX (black columns and lh scale). The assumptions for the chart are WTI oil price (realized price which is netted back to the wellhead), average well costs starting at $8 Million in January 2009 and growing to $10 Million as of January 2011 and $9 Million as of January 2013 with a decline towards $8 Million as from January 2015. All costs assumed to incur as the wells were reported starting to flow (this creates some backlog for cumulative costs as these are incurred continuously during the manufacturing of the wells) and the estimates do not include costs of non- flowing and dry wells, water disposal wells, exploration wells, seismic surveys, acreage acquisitions etc. Economic assumptions; royalties of 16%, production tax of 5%, an extraction tax of 6.5%, OPEX at $5/Bbl, transport (from wellhead to refinery) $12/Bbl and a weighted interest of 6% on debt (before any corporate tax effects, which now adds around $3/Bbl in financial costs) and income from natural gas/NGPL sales (which now and on average grosses around 1.3 Mcf/Bbl). Estimates do not include the effects of hedging, dividend payouts and retained earnings. Estimates do not include investments in processing/transport facilities and externalities like road upkeep, etc. The purpose with the estimates presented in the chart is to present an approximation of net cash flows and development in total use of primarily debt for manufacturing of LTO wells. The chart serves as a proxy for estimates of the aggregate cash flow for all oil companies in Bakken(ND). https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/46334-fig-1-bakken-lto-per-march-2015.pngFIG 1 BAKKEN LTO PER MARCH 2015Figure 1: The chart above shows development in Light Tight Oil (LTO) extraction from January 2009 and as of March 2015 in Bakken North Dakota [green area, right hand scale]. The top black line is the price of Western Texas Intermediate (WTI), red middle line the Bakken LTO price (sweet) as published by the Director for NDIC and bottom orange line the spread between WTI and Bakken LTO wellhead all left hand scale. Note that the spread between WTI and Bakken LTO wellhead has remained relatively high and fairly stable during the recent year.2015-06-15T16:21:15+00:00monthlyhttps://runelikvern.com/2015/05/03/changes-to-total-global-debt-affects-the-oil-price/https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/e7a66-figure-13-china-brazil-and-indonesia-changes-in-pet-consumption-versus-debt.pngFIGURE 13 CHINA BRAZIL AND INDONESIA CHANGES IN PET CONSUMPTION VERSUS DEBTFigure 13: The chart above shows the YoY changes in total private non financial debt [horizontal axis] plotted versus the YoY changes in total petroleum consumption [vertical axis] for Brazil [green dots connected by a green line], China [red dots connected by a red line] and Indonesia [blue dots connected by a blue line] from 2001 to 2013. The lines have arrows to show the direction and some years indicated to improve identification of movements. https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/5fd6b-figure-12-brazil-china-and-india-relative-annual-changes-to-debt.pngFIGURE 12 BRAZIL CHINA AND INDIA RELATIVE ANNUAL CHANGES TO DEBTFigure 12: The chart above show developments for year over year (YoY) relative changes to total private debt for Brazil (thick green line), China (thick red line), India (thick brown line) Indonesia (thin blue line), Thailand (thin greenish line) and for comparison, the US (thick black dotted line) [all right hand scale]. The chart also shows the development of the oil price (Brent spot [yellow line] and left hand scale). https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/fb8c7-figure-11-emerging-economies-and-petroleum-consumption.pngFIGURE 11 EMERGING ECONOMIES AND PETROLEUM CONSUMPTIONFigure 11: The chart above shows developments in total petroleum consumption (grey area), petroleum imports (red area), petroleum production (green area), net petroleum exports (blue area) for the The 5 EME’s (Brazil, China, India, Indonesia and Thailand), all right hand scale. The chart also shows development in the oil price, Brent spot, left hand scale. https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/71b2b-figure-11-brazil-china-and-india-relative-annual-changes-to-debt.pngFIGURE 11 BRAZIL CHINA AND INDIA RELATIVE ANNUAL CHANGES TO DEBThttps://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/03b0a-figure-10-china-total-debt-and-changes-to-it.pngFIGURE 10 CHINA TOTAL DEBT AND CHANGES TO ITFigure 10: The chart above shows developments in total non financial private debt in China [red area, right hand scale]. The black columns show annually (YoY) changes in non financial private debt in China by quarter [left hand scale], refer also figure 12. https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/69a27-figure-09-euro-area-japan-and-us-changes-in-pet-consumption-vs-debt.pngFIGURE 09 EURO AREA JAPAN AND US CHANGES IN PET CONSUMPTION VS DEBTFigure 09: The chart above shows the YoY changes in total private non financial debt [horizontal axis] plotted versus the YoY changes in total petroleum consumption [vertical axis] for the Euro area [yellow dots connected by a blue line], Japan [red dots connected by a red line] and the US [black dots connected by a grey line] from 2001 to 2013. The lines have arrows to show the direction and some years indicated to improve identification of movements. https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/3676e-figure-08-euro-area-and-us-relative-annual-changes-to-debt.pngFIGURE 08 EURO AREA AND US RELATIVE ANNUAL CHANGES TO DEBTFigure 08: The chart above show developments for year over year (YoY) relative changes to total private debt for the Euro area (thick blue line), the US (thick black dotted line), Japan (thick red line) and some selected European economies [Italy, Portugal, Spain and the UK, refer the legend, all right hand scale]. The chart also shows the development of the oil price (Brent spot [yellow line] and left hand scale). https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/f8b18-figure-07-us-total-petroleum-consumption.pngFIGURE 07 US TOTAL PETROLEUM CONSUMPTIONFigure 07: The chart above shows developments in total petroleum consumption (grey area), petroleum imports (red area), petroleum production (green area) for the US [all right hand scale]. The chart also shows development in the oil price, Brent spot [left hand scale]. https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/27e81-figure-06-us-total-debt-and-changes-to-it.pngFIGURE 06 US TOTAL DEBT AND CHANGES TO ITFigure 06: The chart above shows developments in total non financial private debt in the US [red area, right hand scale]. The black columns show YoY changes in non financial private debt in the US by quarter [left hand scale], refer also figures 08, 11 and 12. https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/c7d33-figure-05-japan-total-petroleum-consumption.pngFIGURE 05 JAPAN TOTAL PETROLEUM CONSUMPTIONFigure 05: The chart above shows developments in total petroleum consumption (grey area), petroleum imports (red area), petroleum production (green area) for Japan [all right hand scale]. The chart also shows development in the oil price, Brent spot [left hand scale]. 2015-05-11T14:09:13+00:00monthlyhttps://runelikvern.com/2015/04/13/the-contango-spread-supports-the-oil-price-and-results-in-strong-stock-building/https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/9ee61-fig12-oecd-and-non-oecd-petroleum-consumption-oct-2015.pngFIG12 OECD AND NON OECD PETROLEUM CONSUMPTION OCT 2015Figure 12: The chart above shows developments in OECD total petroleum consumption, blue area, non OECD implied total petroleum consumption, yellow area, both right hand scale. The black line shows the development in the oil price, Brent spot and left hand scale. Data as of October 2014.https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/88060-fig11-kuwait-crude-oil-supplies-and-rig-counts-mar-15.pngFIG11 KUWAIT CRUDE OIL SUPPLIES AND RIG COUNTS MAR 15Figure 11: The chart above shows developments in Kuwait’s supplies of crude oil and condensates (green area and left hand axis). The pink line shows development in the oil price, Brent spot, the black line total number of rigs, the dark blue dotted line number of oil rigs in Kuwait all plotted versus the right hand scale. NOTE: Rig counts and oil price as of March 2015. Crude oil and condensates production data as of October 2014 from EIA. https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/fda0f-fig10-saudi-arabia-crude-oil-supplies-and-rig-counts-mar-15.pngFIG10 SAUDI ARABIA CRUDE OIL SUPPLIES AND RIG COUNTS MAR 15Figure 10: The chart above shows developments in Saudi Arabia’s supplies of crude oil and condensates (green area and left hand axis). The pink line shows development in the oil price, Brent spot, the black line total number of rigs, the dark blue dotted line number of oil rigs in Saudi Arabia all plotted versus the right hand scale. NOTE: Rig counts and oil price as of March 2015. Crude oil and condensates production data as of October 2014 from EIA. https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/4e37d-fig09-opec-crude-and-condensates-supplies-oct-14.pngFIG09 OPEC CRUDE AND CONDENSATES SUPPLIES OCT 14Figure 09: The stacked columns in the chart above shows developments in crude oil and condensates supplies from the 12 members of OPEC, right hand axis. The yellow dots connected with a black line shows development in the monthly Brent spot price, left hand axis.https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/24ef1-fig08-us-propane-consumption-apr-15.pngFIG08 US PROPANE CONSUMPTION APR 15Figure 08: The green line in the chart above shows developments in US propane/propylene supplied (a proxy for consumption) with a trailing 52 week moving average (52 WMA), the orange line, both left hand scale. The black line shows developments in the propane price, spot, Mt Belvieu TX, right hand scale.https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/8c484-fig07-us-kerosene-consumption-apr-15.pngFIG07 US KEROSENE CONSUMPTION APR 15Figure 07: The green line in the chart above shows developments in US kerosene supplied (a proxy for consumption) with a trailing 52 week moving average (52 WMA), the orange line, both left hand scale. The black line shows developments in the kerosene price, right hand scale.https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/927d0-fig06-us-distillate-consumption-apr-15.pngFIG06 US DISTILLATE CONSUMPTION APR 15Figure 06: The green line in the chart above shows developments in US distillate, including diesel, supplied (a proxy for consumption) with a trailing 52 week moving average (52 WMA), the orange line, both left hand scale. The black line shows developments in the diesel retail price, right hand scale. NOTE: Left hand scaling. https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/9bb49-fig05-us-gasoline-consumption-apr-15.pngFIG05 US GASOLINE CONSUMPTION APR 15Figure 05: The blue line in the chart above shows developments in US gasoline supplied (a proxy for consumption) with a trailing 52 week moving average (52 WMA), the orange line, both left hand scale. The black line shows developments in all grades retail gasoline price and right hand scale. NOTE: Left hand scaling. https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/853fa-fig04-us-total-petroleum-consumption-apr-15.pngFIG04 US TOTAL PETROLEUM CONSUMPTION APR 15Figure 04: The grey line in the chart above shows developments in US total petroleum supplied (a proxy for consumption) with a trailing 52 week moving average (52 WMA), the green line, both left hand scale. The blue line shows developments in the oil price, Brent spot and right hand scale. NOTE: Left hand scaling. https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/ff94b-fig03-us-co-stocks-the-oil-price-bf2016-and-the-spread.pngFIG03 US CO STOCKS THE OIL PRICE BF2016 AND THE SPREADFigure 03: The chart above shows developments in the oil price (Brent spot, red line), Brent crude futures for January 2016 (BF2016, blue line) and the spread (green line) between the spot and BF2016 all plotted towards the right hand scale. The thick black line shows the weekly EIA reported total US commercial crude oil stocks, left hand scale. NOTE 1: Scaling of the left hand axis. NOTE 2: The chart shows only the developments in price for the futures for January 2016 (BF2016) to avoid crowding the chart with information. 2015-04-27T14:03:10+00:00monthlyhttps://runelikvern.com/2015/04/05/the-oil-price-total-global-debt-and-interest-rates/https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/13d4d-figure-2-oil-supplies-oil-price-and-us10t.pngFigure 2 Oil supplies, oil price and US10TFigure 2: The green area [left hand axis] in the chart above shows the world’s development of crude oil and condensates supplies between 1980 and 2013. The pink line shows the development in the interest rate (yield) for US 10 Year Treasuries [right hand axis]. The price of oil (Brent), black line nominal, yellow line inflation adjusted in $2013 [both right hand axis]. NOTE: The oil price has been divided by 10 to accommodate it on the same scale as the interest rate [right hand axis]. The US 10 Year Treasury (US10T) interest rate has been in decline and is presently below 2.0%. https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/91bd8-table-1-gdp-debt-interest-rate-oil-price.pngTable 1 GDP Debt Interest rate Oil PriceTable 1: The table above lists developments of some key figures and metrics for global GDP, global debt and interest rates. It also presents an effort to put the global effects of the oil price in a perspective versus the interest rates and total global debt.https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/089be-figure-1-global-debt-outstanding-by-type-mckinsey.pngFigure 1 Global debt outstanding by type, McKinseyFigure 1: Chart above has been lifted from page 1 of the Executive summary of the McKinsey report “Debt and (not much) deleveraging” made public in February 2015. 2015-04-05T21:29:40+00:00monthlyhttps://runelikvern.com/2015/03/21/is-the-red-queen-outrunning-bakken-lto-extraction/https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/29a1b-fig-09-williams-well-productivity-by-vintage.pngFig 09 Williams well productivity by vintageFigure 09: The chart shows the development in average total LTO extraction by vintage for wells in Williams. NOTE: Data for 2014 are not complete with first year totals for all wells. https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/57fac-fig-08-williams-oil-extraction-by-vintage.pngFig 08 Williams oil extraction by vintageFigure 08: The chart above shows developments by vintage in oil extraction for Williams county in Bakken (ND) as of January 2008 and of January 2015 [right hand scale]. Development in the oil price (WTI) black line is shown versus the left hand scale. https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/df62e-fig-07-mountrail-well-productivity-by-vintage.pngFig 07 Mountrail well productivity by vintageFigure 07: The chart shows the development in average total LTO extraction by vintage for wells in Mountrail. NOTE: Data for 2014 are not complete with first year totals for all wells. https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/8d563-fig-06-mountrail-oil-extraction-by-vintage.pngFig 06 Mountrail oil extraction by vintageFigure 06: The chart above shows developments by vintage in LTO extraction for Mountrail county in Bakken (ND) as of January 2008 and of January 2015 [right hand scale]. Development in the oil price (WTI) black line is shown versus the left hand scale. https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/8cc62-fig-05-mckenzie-well-productivity-by-vintage.pngFig 05 McKenzie well productivity by vintageFigure 05: The chart shows the development in average total LTO extraction by vintage for wells in McKenzie. NOTE: Data for 2014 are not complete with first year totals for all wells. https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/30a56-fig-04-mckenzie-oil-extraction-by-vintage.pngFig 04 McKenzie oil extraction by vintagehttps://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/3b32a-fig-03-bakken-4-counties-with-biggest-oil-extraction.pngFig 03 Bakken 4 counties with biggest oil extractionFigure 03: The chart above shows development for oil extraction from the 4 counties in North Dakota with the highest oil extraction.https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/e49be-fig-02-bakken-lto-estimates-on-monthly-cash-flow-and-total.pngFig 02 Bakken LTO estimates on monthly cash flow and totalFigure 02: The chart above shows an estimate in development of cumulative net cash flows post CAPEX for manufacturing LTO wells in Bakken (ND) as of January 2009 and as of August 2014 (red area and rh scale) and estimated monthly net cash flows post CAPEX (black columns and lh scale). The assumptions for the chart are WTI oil price (realized price which is netted back to the wellhead), average well costs starting at $8 Million in January 2009 and growing to $10 Million as of January 2011 and $9 Million as of January 2013. All costs assumed to incur as the wells were reported starting to flow (this creates some backlog for cumulative costs as these are incurred continuously during the manufacturing of the wells) and the estimates do not include costs non- flowing and dry wells, water disposal wells, exploration wells, seismic surveys, acreage acquisitions etc. Economic assumptions; royalties of 16%, production tax of 5%, an extraction tax of 6.5%, OPEX at $5/Bbl, transport (from wellhead to refinery) $12/Bbl and interest of 5% on debt (before any corporate tax effects) and income from natural gas/NGPL sales (which now and on average grosses around 1Mcf/Bbl). Estimates do not include the effects of hedging, dividend payouts and retained earnings. Estimates do not include investments in processing/transport facilities and externalities like road upkeep, etc. The purpose with the estimates presented in the chart is to present an approximation of net cash flows and development in total use of primarily debt for manufacturing of LTO wells. The chart serves as a proxy of the aggregate cash flow for all oil companies in Bakken(ND). https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/88849-fig-01-bakken-lto-per-jan-2015.pngFig 01 Bakken LTO per Jan 2015Figure 01: The chart above shows development in Light Tight Oil (LTO) extraction from January 2009 and as of January 2015 in Bakken North Dakota [green area, right hand scale]. The top black line is the price of Western Texas Intermediate (WTI), red middle line the Bakken LTO price (sweet) as published by the Director for NDIC and bottom orange line the spread between WTI and Bakken LTO wellhead all left hand scale.2015-03-22T16:50:13+00:00monthlyhttps://runelikvern.com/2015/03/10/norwegian-crude-oil-reserves-and-extraction-per-2014/https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/b06d2-figure-12-volve-relative-depletion-and-yield-curves.pngFigure 12 Volve relative depletion and yield curvesFigure 12: The chart above shows the actual development of relative depletion (black line and left hand scale), annualized yield (red line and right hand scale) and the annual moving average of the depletion rate (blue dotted lines, right hand scale) for crude oil extraction from the Volve discovery/field. At end 2014 NPD estimated Volve to have contained 61 Mb with original recoverable crude oil. https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/b0fd3-figure-11-skarv-relative-depletion-and-yield-curves.pngFigure 11 Skarv relative depletion and yield curvesFigure 11: The chart above shows the actual development of relative depletion (black line and left hand scale), annualized yield (red line and right hand scale) and the annual moving average of the depletion rate (blue dotted lines, right hand scale) for crude oil extraction from the Skarv discovery/field. At end 2014 NPD estimated Skarv to have contained 86 Mb with original recoverable crude oil. https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/28cb8-figure-10-norway-crude-oil-fields-in-production-their-reserves-and-r-over-p-ratio.pngFigure 10 Norway crude oil fields in production their reserves and R over P ratioFigure 10: The scatter chart above shows NPD’s estimates on remaining recoverable crude oil reserves for NCS fields/discoveries in the extraction phase versus their R/P ratios at end 2014. The crosses in the chart show the weighted R/P ratio and average estimated remaining recoverable crude oil reserves (per discovery/field) for the described ranges. https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/c8afe-figure-09-norway-crude-oil-extraction-versus-r-over-p-ratio.pngFigure 09 Norway crude oil extraction versus R over P ratioFigure 09: The chart above shows cumulative NCS crude oil extraction versus the fields/discoveries R/P ratio in the extraction phase at end 2014 plotted against the right hand scale [black dots connected by a black line]. The red line, plotted against the left hand scale, shows the cumulative portion of the crude oil extraction versus the R/P ratio.https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/e967c-figure-08-discoveries-by-evaluation-status-and-crude-oil-and-natural-gas-reserves.pngFigure 08 Discoveries by evaluation status and crude oil and natural gas reservesFigure 08: The chart above shows NCS discoveries, their estimated recoverable crude oil reserve versus natural gas reserves and their evaluation status. It is the total petroleum reserves that form the economic basis for any developments. Due to scaling the chart does not include Johan Sverdrup and Johan Castberg (Barents Sea). https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/0d977-figure-07-norway-crude-oil-discoveries-and-their-reserves.pngFigure 07 Norway crude oil discoveries and their reservesFigure 07: The chart above shows NCS discoveries in various evaluation phases, their estimated recoverable crude oil reserves versus year of discovery. In the chart is also shown development in the nominal oil price (Brent). Green circles: Resource Category 4F, in planning phase. Yellow circles: Resource Category 5F, development likely, but not clarified. Pink circles: Resource Category 7F, not evaluated. NOTE; For reasons of scaling Johan Sverdrup (which Plan for Development and Operation [PDO] is in process) and Johan Castberg in the Barents Sea and above 72 degrees North (both Category 4F) are not shown. https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/d23be-figure-06-norway-crude-oil-creaming-curve-and-developments-of-reserves.pngFigure 06 Norway crude oil creaming curve and developments of reservesFigure 06: The chart above shows the development of total NCS crude oil discoveries since exploration began and as of end 2014 [data from NPD Resource Accounting at end 2014]. The chart is often referred to as a “creaming curve”. The light green portion of the columns shows the development in total extracted, sold and delivered. The dark green portion shows the development in estimated remaining recoverable reserves. The yellow portion shows the development in total estimated reserves in discoveries that has not been sanctioned at end 2014. Johan Sverdrup is presently included in the yellow portion of the columns. https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/992ec-figure-05-norway-crude-oil-discoveries-by-year-and-their-status.pngFigure 05 Norway crude oil discoveries by year and their statusFigure 05: The figure shows the history and the status of the total discoveries by year (stacked columns) since oil exploration started on the Norwegian Continental Shelf (NCS) and as of 2014. The light green columns show what has been extracted, sold and delivered. The dark green portion of the columns is total remaining reserves. The yellow portion of the columns shows reserves in discoveries under evaluation. Furthermore, in the chart is also shown annual production (thick black line) for extraction of crude oil since it began in the 1970s. The chart has a table that shows the year of discovery for fields estimated to hold more than 1 Giga barrels (Gb) of recoverable crude oil. (Gb; G = Giga, Billion barrels) https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/a79c4-figure-04-norway-crude-oil-production-by-vintage-since-2002.pngFigure 04 Norway crude oil production by vintage since 2002Figure 04: The figure above shows development of crude oil extraction from sanctioned NCS fields by vintage since 2002 (rh scale) together with the (nominal) oil price (lh scale).https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/123ff-figure-03-norway-actual-crude-oil-production-pre-2002-and-by-vintage.pngFigure 03 Norway actual crude oil production pre 2002 and by vintageFigure 03: The figure above shows development of crude oil extraction from NCS sanctioned fields that started to flow prior to 2002 and by vintage since 2002 (rh scale) together with the (nominal) oil price (lh scale).2015-03-10T15:20:05+00:00monthlyhttps://runelikvern.com/2015/02/24/are-we-in-the-midst-of-an-epic-battle-between-interest-rates-and-the-oil-price/https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/78c18-figure-8-the-oil-price-and-some-macro-trends.pngFigure 8 the oil price and some macro trendsFigure 8: The chart shows the development in the oil price (Brent) and some major macro economic trends.https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/e9107-figure-7-10-year-treasury-vs-wti-feb-19-2015-res.pngFigure 7 10 YEAR TREASURY VS WTI FEB 19 2015 ResFigure 7: The chart above is from the Federal Reserve and shows developments in the US 10 Year Treasury (US10T, orange line, left hand sale) and the oil price (Western Texas Intermediate, WTI; dark green line and right hand scale). Data as of January 1st 2014 and February 19th 2015. NOTE: None of the axis are zero scaled. https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/6fb83-figure-6-global-debt-outstanding-by-type-mckinsey.pngFigure 6 Global debt outstanding by type, McKinseyFigure 6: The chart above shows development in total global debt outstanding split on sectors. In 2000 global Gross Domestic Product (GDP) was about $35 Trillion and by 2014 it had grown to about $70 Trillion. Source: McKinsey https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/24ccc-figure-5-oil-price-and-some-cb-applied-tools.pngFigure 5 Oil price and some CB applied toolsFigure 5: The chart above shows the developments in the oil price [Brent spot, black line and Western Texas Intermediate (WTI), dark red line] and the time of central banks’ announcements/deployments of available tools to support the global financial markets which the economy heavily relies upon. The financial system is virtual and thus highly responsive. The chart suggests causation between FED policies and movements to the oil price. https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/600de-figure-4-us-petroleum-consumption-and-the-oil-price.pngFigure 4 US petroleum consumption and the oil priceFigure 4: The chart shows development in US total petroleum consumption (annualized, green line) together with the oil price. Since the oil price started its rapid decline in June 2014, US annualized petroleum consumption is up less than 1%. https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/ed9ce-figure-3-us-debt-gdp-and-us10t.pngFigure 3 US debt, GDP and US10TFigure 3: The stacked areas in the chart above shows developments in the US for total private [blue and orange, right hand scale] and public debt [red, right hand scale] together with US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) [green line, right hand scale] in nominal dollars as from Q1 1980 to Q1 2014. The black line shows development in US 10 Year Treasuries as from 1980 to 2013 [annual figures and left hand scale]. https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/a2a61-figure-2-dynamics-of-oil-price-and-financials.pngFigure 2 Dynamics of oil price and financialsFigure 2: Left hand panel of the chart shows market tightness and right hand panel growth in energy sector’s debt which took off with the growth in the oil price.https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/b1ecb-figure-1-oil-supplies-oil-price-and-us10t.pngFigure 1 Oil supplies, oil price and US10TFigure 1: The green area [left hand axis] in the chart above shows the world’s development of crude oil and condensates supplies between 1980 and 2013. The pink line shows the development in the interest rate (yield) for US 10 Year Treasuries [right hand axis]. The price of oil (Brent), black line nominal, yellow line inflation adjusted in $2013 [both right hand axis]. NOTE: The oil price has been divided by 10 to accommodate it on the same scale as the interest rate [right hand axis]. The US 10 Year Treasury (US10T) interest rate has been in decline and is presently around 2.0%. 2015-02-26T19:39:27+00:00monthlyhttps://runelikvern.com/2015/01/09/are-mountrails-sweet-spots-past-their-prime/https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/cf25a-figure-15-correlation-3-month-vs-24-month-2010-through-2012.pngFigure 15 Correlation 3 Month vs 24 Month 2010 through 2012Figure 15: The chart above shows the correlation between 3 months totals LTO versus 24 months total LTO for the wells for 2010, 2011 and 2012 presented in table A.https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/2074c-figure-14-correlation-6-month-vs-24-month-2010-through-2012.pngFigure 14 Correlation 6 Month vs 24 Month 2010 through 2012Figure 14: The chart above shows the correlation between 6 months totals LTO versus 24 months total LTO for the wells for 2010, 2011 and 2012 presented in table A.https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/559ff-figure-13-correlation-12-month-vs-24-month-2010-through-2012.pngFigure 13 Correlation 12 Month vs 24 Month 2010 through 2012Figure 13: The chart above shows the correlation between 12 months totals LTO versus 24 months total LTO for the wells for 2010, 2011 and 2012 presented in table A.https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/96bc9-figure-12-normal-distribution-and-portion-2010-through-2013.pngFigure 12 Normal Distribution and Portion 2010 through 2013Figure 12: The chart above shows distribution and the normal distribution of the first 12 months total flow for the LTO wells from Bakken (ND) for 2010, 2011, 2012 and 2013 subjected to full time series analysis, refer also table A. The intervals used for the distribution (colored bars connected by lines, left hand scale) in the chart are 2,000 Bbls. The chart also shows the normal distribution (plotted towards the right hand scale) of the first 12 months total flow for the LTO wells from Bakken (ND) for 2010, 2011, 2012 and 2013 subjected to the time series analysis. The colored dotted lines show the normal distribution by vintage of all the studied wells. The thin lines are polynomial fits of 5th order of the distributions (left hand scale). https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/40185-figure-11-normal-distribution-2010-through-2013.pngFigure 11 Normal Distribution 2010 through 2013Figure 11: The chart above is a representation for normal distribution of probabilities of productivity of the wells analyzed and presented in the overview in table A. The colored lines shows the normal distribution by vintage for the wells analyzed, refer also table A. How to read the chart: The lines show the normal distribution for all studied wells started in 2010, 2011, 2012 and 2013. It shows that 30% of all the wells had a first 12 months total flow of 60 kb or less. Alternatively 70% of the wells had a first 12 months total flow of 60 kb or more. About 15% of the wells had a first 12 months flow of 125 kb or more. https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/240b1-table-a-wells-for-the-statistical-analysis-bakken-oct-14.pngTable A Wells for the Statistical Analysis Bakken Oct 14Table A: The table above shows the number of wells by vintage incorporated in the statistical analysis for the Middle Bakken and Three Forks formations in North Dakota. It also shows the “average” well productivity (12 months LTO) totals and the median.https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/b5550-figure-10-reunion-bay-6-and-12-month-lto-productivity.pngFigure 10 Reunion Bay 6 and 12 Month LTO ProductivityFigure 10: The red dots in the chart above are the 6 months totals for individual wells and the red line the smoothed 25 Well Moving Average (25 WMA) of the 6 months totals. The black are the 12 months totals for individual wells and the black line the smoothed 25 Well Moving Average (25 WMA) of the 12 months totals. The wells’ productivities are plotted versus the month of their first reported flow.https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/e971b-figure-09-sanish-6-and-12-month-lto-totals-correlation.pngFigure 09 Sanish 6 and 12 Month LTO Totals CorrelationFigure 09: The chart above shows the correlation between 6 months totals and 12 months totals for the wells in Sanish started as of January 2008.https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/c7d7c-figure-08-sanish-6-and-12-month-lto-productivity.pngFigure 08 Sanish 6 and 12 Month LTO ProductivityFigure 08: The red dots in the chart above are the 6 months totals for individual wells and the red line the smoothed 25 Well Moving Average (25 WMA) of the 6 months totals. The black dots are the 12 months totals for individual wells and the black line the smoothed 25 Well Moving Average (25 WMA) of the 12 months totals. The wells’ productivities are plotted versus the month of their first reported flow.https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/a60b0-figure-07-parshall-6-and-12-months-lto-totals-correlation.pngFigure 07 Parshall 6 and 12 Months LTO Totals CorrelationFigure 07: The chart above shows the correlation between 6 months totals and 12 months totals for the wells in Parshall started as of January 2008.2015-01-10T12:46:35+00:00monthlyhttps://runelikvern.com/2014/12/11/will-the-bakken-red-queen-outrun-growth-in-water-cut/https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/eb5f0-figure-30-break-even-price-wti-vs-break-even-flow.pngFigure 30 Break Even Price WTI vs Break Even FlowFigure 30: The chart shows estimated break even price (WTI) versus break even flow for Bakken type LTO wells (first year/first 12 months total LTO extracted). The green line is at a discount rate of 7% and the red line at a discount rate of 10%. NOTE: Presented estimates are on a point forward basis (each well looked at as a freestanding project) thus estimates does NOT include costs for acreage acquisition, exploration etc. The higher the requirement for return, the higher the breakeven price or breakeven volume becomes. https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/c968e-figure-29-10-wells-moving-average-12-months-lto-6-pools.pngFigure 29 10 Wells Moving Average 12 Months LTO 6 PoolsFigure 29: The chart above shows developments in the trailing 10 well average for the first 12 months total flow for the wells in the pools presented in this post. The red dotted line shows estimated first 12 months break even flow with an oil price of $70/Bbl (WTI), the green dotted line at $100/Bbl (WTI). Well data as of September 2014. Assumptions to break even flow as described in figure 30 and with a 7% discount rate. Estimates are on a point forward basis (half cycle) and does NOT include costs for acreage acquisition, exploration etc. https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/c4a35-figure-28-12-first-months-lto-totals-6-pools.pngFigure 28 12 First Months LTO totals 6 PoolsFigure 28: The chart above shows the development in well productivity (first 12 months LTO totals of reported flow) for all the wells in the 6 pools presented in this post versus time (month) of reported first flow. The red dotted line shows estimated first 12 months break even flow with an oil price of $70/Bbl (WTI), the green dotted line at $100/Bbl (WTI). Well data as of September 2014. Assumptions to break even flow as described in figure 30 and with a 7% discount rate. Estimates are on a point forward basis (half cycle) and does not include costs for acreage acquisition, exploration etc. https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/1a20d-figure-27-todd-lto-all-wells-sep-2014.pngFigure 27 Todd LTO all Wells Sep 2014Figure 27: The thin lines in the chart above shows development in the water cut from the individual wells in the Middle Bakken and Three Forks formations in the Todd pool. The thicker black line shows the development of average water cut for all the wells studied.https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/5c3d0-figure-26-todd-lto-all-wells-sep-2014.pngFigure 26 Todd LTO all Wells Sep 2014Figure 26: The thin lines in the chart above shows development in total LTO from the individual wells in the Middle Bakken and Three Forks formations in the Todd pool. The thicker black dotted line shows the development for average total LTO for all the wells studied.https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/25d37-figure-25-squires-water-cut-all-wells-sep-2014.pngFigure 25 Squires Water Cut all Wells Sep 2014Figure 25: The thin lines in the chart above shows development in the water cut from the individual wells in the Middle Bakken and Three Forks formations in the Squires pool. The thicker black line shows the development of average water cut for all the wells studied.https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/0f100-figure-24-squires-lto-all-wells-sep-2014.pngFigure 24 Squires LTO all Wells Sep 2014Figure 24: The thin lines in the chart above shows development in total LTO from the individual wells in the Middle Bakken and Three Forks formations in the Squires pool. The thicker black dotted line shows the development for average total LTO for all the wells studied.https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/84dbd-figure-23-camp-water-cut-all-wells-sep-2014.pngFigure 23 Camp Water Cut all Wells Sep 2014Figure 23: The thin lines in the chart above shows development in the water cut from the individual wells in the Middle Bakken and Three Forks formations in the Camp pool. The thicker black line shows the development of average water cut for all the wells studied.https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/3c515-figure-22-camp-lto-all-wells-sep-2014.pngFigure 22 Camp LTO all Wells Sep 2014Figure 22: The thin lines in the chart above shows development in total LTO from the individual wells in the Middle Bakken and Three Forks formations in the Camp pool. The thicker black dotted line shows the development for average total LTO for all the wells studied.https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/924dd-figure-21-banks-well-lto-water-and-gor.pngFigure 21 Banks Well LTO Water and GORFigure 21: The chart above shows developments in LTO extraction, produced water [lh scale] and Gas Oil Ratio (GOR) [rh scale] for one well in the Banks pool in the Middle Bakken formation.2014-12-21T21:03:31+00:00monthlyhttps://runelikvern.com/2014/10/31/growth-in-global-total-debt-sustained-a-high-oil-price-and-delayed-the-bakken-red-queen/https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/e3eea-figure-14-china-oil-consumption-production-net-imports-and-exports.pngFigure 14 China oil consumption production net imports and exportsFigure 14: The chart above (areas are not stacked) shows developments in China’s total petroleum consumption (grey area), production (green area), net exports (blue area) and net imports (red area) since 1965 and as of 2013 [rh scale] together with the oil price [Brent, black dots and lh scale].https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/d72eb-figure-13-oecd-oil-consuption-production-and-net-imports.pngFigure 13 OECD oil consuption production and net importsFigure 13: Chart above (areas are not stacked) shows developments in OECD total petroleum consumption (grey area), production (green area) and net imports (red area) since 1965 and as of 2013 [rh scale] together with the oil price [Brent, black dots and lh scale].https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/35229-figure-12-china-development-in-debt-to-gdp-ratio.pngFigure 12 China development in debt to GDP ratioFigure 12: Chart above shows Chinese leverage, changes in total debt to GDP. Note the growth of this metric since 2011.https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/712df-figure-11-advanced-economies-central-banks-balance-sheets-and-interest-rates.pngFigure 11 Advanced economies central banks balance sheets and interest ratesFigure 11: The chart above shows [left panel] how advanced economies’ central banks in concerted efforts lowered their interest rates following the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) in 2008. The middle panel shows the relative growth (expansion) of the balance sheets (assets) for US Federal Reserve (Fed), European Central Bank (ECB), Bank of England (BoE) and Bank of Japan (BoJ) post the GFC. Note the growth of the Fed’s balance sheet since 2012 (middle panel). The right hand panel shows the development in long and short term interest rates together with the twenty year average. Chart from p 24 in BIS 84th Annual Report, 29 June 2014. https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/b10c8-figure-10-s-and-p-500-and-application-of-fed-policies.pngFigure 10 S and P 500 and application of Fed policiesFigure 10: The chart above shows the developments in the stock index, S&P 500, and the time of the Fed’s announcements/deployments of available tools to support the global financial markets which the economy heavily relies upon. The chart suggests causation between Fed policies and movements in the stock index. https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/1af37-figure-09-the-oil-price-and-application-of-fed-policies.pngFigure 09 The oil price and application of Fed policiesFigure 09: The chart above shows the developments in the oil price [Brent spot; black line and WTI; red line] and the time of the Fed’s announcements/deployments of available tools to support the global financial markets which the economy heavily relies upon. The financial system is virtual and thus highly responsive. The chart suggests causation between Fed policies and movements to the oil price. https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/0d19f-figure-08-bakken-water-to-oil-ratio-by-vintage.pngFigure 08 Bakken water to oil ratio by vintageFigure 08: The chart above shows development in the water to oil ratio for the “average” wells by vintage [calendar year] in Bakken. Produced water (brine) is separated and transported to dedicated disposal sites. Chart by Enno Peters. https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/78e8b-figure-07-bakken-total-lto-extraction-by-well-and-vintage.pngFigure 07 Bakken total LTO extraction by well and vintageFigure 07: The chart above shows how cumulative LTO extraction for the “average” well by vintage [calendar year] develops with time. Chart by Enno Peters. https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/e1f38-figure-06-bakken-decline-by-vintage.pngFigure 06 Bakken decline by vintageFigure 06: The chart above, based upon the NDIC data for figure 05, shows how LTO extraction in Bakken declines by vintage [end of year].https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/61da0-figure-05-bakken-lto-extraction-by-vintage.pngFigure 05 Bakken LTO extraction by vintageFigure 05: The stacked areas in the chart above show developments in LTO extraction of the population of wells by vintage. Chart by Enno Peters. 2014-11-11T03:21:39+00:00monthlyhttps://runelikvern.com/2014/10/19/world-crude-oil-production-and-the-oil-price/https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/47352-fig-6-norway-and-a-field-in-late-extraction-phase.pngFig 6 Norway and a field in late extraction phaseFigure 6: The chart shows the actual (as of July 2014) and forecast (towards 2020) extraction of petroleum, as stacked columns, (green; crude oil, light blue; NGL, red; natural gas in Barrels of Oil Equivalents per day [BOE/d]) from a field in Norway (North Sea); the left hand scale. The chart also includes the development in price for Brent spot (annual price), black dots connected by a red line. The chart shows estimates for the actual breakeven oil price (yellow circles connected with a black line and its projected trajectory towards 2018). Note how the growth in the oil price increased extraction in 2008 and that the sustained higher oil price (from 2011) did not affect the extraction rate. Some have suggested that a high oil price stimulates accelerated extraction. In Norway the oil companies recover their investment during a period of 6 years after it has been done. The recovery of the investment is exempt from taxation. The economic rent on on the profits from the Norwegian petroleum extraction totals 78%, and the tax structure favors investments in profitable discoveries. https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/e87ec-fig-5-world-oil-supplies-by-full-life-cycle-costs-tranches.pngFig 5 World oil supplies by full life cycle costs tranchesFigure 5: The chart above shows a conceptual description and approximation in the developments of full life cycle costs tranches [ CAPEX {inclusive returns} + OPEX] for global crude oil production [rh scale] together with the oil price [Brent and lh scale]. 2014YTD (June 2014). The full life cycle costs tranches should not be confused with operating expenditures (OPEX). It is as OPEX surpasses gross revenues the operation becomes unprofitable and producing installations/wells becomes shut in, plugged and abandoned, refer also figure 6. https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/d9f3e-fig-4-world-crude-oil-supplies-by-sources-2014-ytd.pngFig 4 World crude oil supplies by sources 2014 YTDFigure 4: The chart above shows world supplies of crude oils and condensates split on conventional sources (green columns), bitumen (oil sands) from Canada (black/grey columns) and Light Tight Oil (LTO) from Bakken and Eagle Ford [blue columns and rh scale. NOTE rh scaling] together with the developments in the oil price [Brent spot and lh scale] since 2002 and as of 2014YTD (June 2014). https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/bff83-fig-3-norway-annualized-growth-in-private-debt-and-the-oil-price.pngFig 3 Norway annualized growth in private debt and the oil priceFigure 3: The chart above shows Norwegian households’ [blue columns], non financials [orange columns] and municipalities [grey columns] 12 Months Moving Totals (annualized) change in debt plotted against the rh scale. The green dots connected by black lines shows the development in the nominal oil price (Brent spot) plotted against the lh scale. https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/fd6ab-fig-2-advanced-economies-central-banks-balance-sheets-and-interest-rates.pngFig 2 Advanced economies central banks balance sheets and interest ratesFigure 2: The chart above shows [left panel] how advanced economies’ central banks in concerted efforts lowered their interest rates following the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) in 2008. The middle panel shows the relative growth (expansion) of the balance sheets (assets) for US Federal Reserve (Fed), European Central Bank (ECB), Bank of England (BoE) and Bank of Japan (BoJ) post the GFC. The right hand panel shows the development in long and short term interest rates together with the twenty year average. Chart from p 24 in BIS 84th Annual Report, 29 June 2014. https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/4a8ee-fig-1-brent-oil-and-fed-policies-oct-14.pngFig 1 Brent oil and Fed policies Oct 14Figure 1: The chart above shows the developments in the oil price [Brent spot] and the time of central banks’ announcements/deployments of available tools to support the global financial markets which the economy heavily relies upon. The financial system is virtual and thus highly responsive. The chart suggests causation between FED policies and movements to the oil price. 2014-10-20T22:37:14+00:00monthlyhttps://runelikvern.com/2014/10/10/the-powers-of-fossil-fuels/https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/d429d-fig-3-world-growth-in-fossil-fuels-versus-solar-and-wind-1990-to-2013.pngFig 3 World growth in fossil fuels versus solar and wind 1990 to 2013Figure 3: The chart above shows the growth in the world’s consumption of fossil fuels (oil [green], natural gas [red] and coal [dark grey] stacked versus the growth in renewables (solar [yellow] and wind [turquoise]), also stacked and all since 1990 to 2013.https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/ead66-fig-2-world-total-consumption-of-solar-and-wind-from-1990-to-2013.pngFig 2 World total consumption of solar and wind from 1990 to 2013Figure 2: The stacked areas in the chart above show the developments in the consumption (production) of energy from the renewables (solar [yellow] and wind [turquoise]) from 1990 to 2013.https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/cb74a-fig-1-world-total-energy-consumption-1800-to-2013.pngFig 1 World total energy consumption 1800 to 2013Figure 1: The chart above shows the developments in the world’s total energy consumption split on sources as from 1800 and into 2013. The chart has been developed in a joint between Dr Nate Hagens and me.2014-10-21T12:02:38+00:00monthlyhttps://runelikvern.com/2014/10/05/status-of-norwegian-natural-gas-and-a-forecast-towards-2025/https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/56ea7-fig-8-eu-natural-gas-production-and-supplies-by-sources-forecast-to-2025.pngFig 8 EU natural gas production and supplies by sources forecast to 2025Figure 8: The chart above shows actual and forecast consumption of natural gas for EU (EU and Norway has been totaled), its production (blue area), pipelined imports (red area) and Liquified Natural Gas (LNG) imports (yellow area). Pipelined imports are primarily from Russia and North Africa (Algeria and Libya). In recent years LNG has mostly come from Qatar, Algeria and Nigeria. The forecast for EU’s natural gas consumption towards 2025 (dotted black line) is from US Energy Information Administration’s World Energy Outlook 2013 (EIA WEO 2013).https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/de66b-fig-7-uk-imports-of-natural-gas-from-norway.pngFig 7 UK imports of natural gas from NorwayFigure 7: Chart above shows the rapid build up of Norwegian natural gas deliveries as the U.K. transitioned from a net exporter to a net importer of natural gas as from 2004 according to data from The Department of Energy & Climate Change (DECC). The chart reflects the U.K. imports, thus the use of the minus sign.https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/9f68e-fig-6-norway-split-natural-gas-sales-europe-and-uk.pngFig 6 Norway split natural gas sales Europe and UKFigure 6: The stacked columns in the chart above shows the split in Norwegian natural gas sales between Continental Europe (red) and the U.K. (blue). In Continental Europe the annualized average dail) deliveries are shown as the black line, for the U.K., refer also figure 7. Volumes have been adjusted for estimates on NGL extraction, “shrinkage”.https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/8fc06-fig-5-norway-2013-status-on-natural-gas-reserves.pngFig 5 Norway 2013 status on natural gas reservesFigure 5: The figure shows the history and the status of the total natural gas discoveries by vintage (stacked columns) since exploration started on the NCS and as of the end of 2013. The rose colored portion of the columns show what has been recovered, sold and delivered. The red portion of the columns is total estimated remaining reserves. The yellow portion of the columns shows reserves in discoveries under evaluation. Furthermore, in the chart is also shown annual production of natural gas since production began in the late 1970s (thick black line). The chart also includes a table that shows the year of discovery for fields estimated to hold more than 100 Giga cubic meters (Gcm = Bcm; Billion cubic meters) of recoverable natural gas.https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/2c1f1-fig-4-norway-forecast-of-natural-gas-production-using-r-over-p.pngFig 4 Norway forecast of natural gas production using R over PFigure 4: The chart above with the stacked boxes shows the R/P ratio for some of the fields with high production and the rest have been lumped together with others. The sum of the areas of the boxes represents total EUR for NCS as of the end of 2013. The chart also shows NPD’s recent forecast towards 2018, my forecast towards 2025 and IEA WEO’s 2012 forecast towards 2035.https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/bfbf9-fig-3-ormen-lange-natural-gas-production.pngFig 3 Ormen Lange natural gas productionFigure 3: The chart above shows development in production from the Ormen Lange discovery. The annualized development (black line) demonstrates that the delivery potential from Ormen Lange is in a gentle decline.https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/20ed9-fig-2-norway-natural-gas-production-by-fields.pngFig 2 Norway natural gas production by fieldsFigure 2: The stacked columns above shows production developments from some of the biggest discoveries from January 2001 to July 2014. The black line shows development in the total annualized (12 Months Moving Average) NCS deliveries. Numbers are not adjusted for NGL extraction and volumes are on daily basis. https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/084fd-fig-1-norway-actual-as-of-2013-and-forecast-natural-gas-production-to-2025.pngFig 1 Norway actual as of 2013 and forecast natural gas production to 20252014-10-05T17:02:55+00:00monthlyhttps://runelikvern.com/2014/09/26/ncs-crude-oil-extraction-fall-2014-status/https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/86052-fig-13-skarv-reserves-and-depletion-developments.pngFIG 13 SKARV RESERVES AND DEPLETION DEVELOPMENTSFigure 13: The chart above shows the developments the depletion (black line and left hand scale), the annualized depletion rate (red line, right hand scale) and the annual moving average depletion rate (blue dotted line, right hand scale).https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/03a28-fig-12-volund-reserves-and-depletion-developments.pngFIG 12 VOLUND RESERVES AND DEPLETION DEVELOPMENTSFigure 12: The chart above shows the developments the depletion (black line and left hand scale), the annualized depletion rate (red line, right hand scale) and the annual moving average depletion rate (blue dotted line, right hand scale).https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/5cb28-fig-11-tyrihans-reserves-and-depletion-developments.pngFIG 11 TYRIHANS RESERVES AND DEPLETION DEVELOPMENTSFigure 11: The chart above shows the developments the depletion (black line and left hand scale), the annualized depletion rate (red line, right hand scale) and the annual moving average depletion rate (blue dotted line, right hand scale).https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/a6357-fig-10-volve-reserves-and-depletion-developments.pngFIG 10 VOLVE RESERVES AND DEPLETION DEVELOPMENTSFigure 10: The chart above shows the developments the depletion (black line and left hand scale), the annualized depletion rate (red line, right hand scale) and the annual moving average depletion rate (blue dotted line, right hand scale).https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/2f552-fig-09-kvitebjc3b8rn-reserves-and-depletion-developments.pngFIG 09 KVITEBJØRN RESERVES AND DEPLETION DEVELOPMENTSFigure 09: The chart above shows the developments the depletion (black line and left hand scale), the annualized depletion rate (red line, right hand scale) and the annual moving average depletion rate (blue dotted line, right hand scale).https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/21e06-fig-08-crude-oil-production-for-valhall-since-2005.pngFIG 08 CRUDE OIL PRODUCTION FOR VALHALL SINCE 2005Figure 08: The chart above shows the developments in crude oil extraction from the Valhall discovery (green area) together with the annualized extraction (black dotted line). The Valhall field had new production facilities started up in early 2013.https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/59f55-fig-07-crude-oil-production-for-troll-since-2005.pngFIG 07 CRUDE OIL PRODUCTION FOR TROLL SINCE 2005Figure 07: The chart above shows the developments in crude oil extraction from the Troll field (green area) together with the annualized extraction (black dotted line).https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/350fd-fig-06-crude-oil-production-for-snorre-since-2005.pngFIG 06 CRUDE OIL PRODUCTION FOR SNORRE SINCE 2005Figure 06: The chart above shows the developments in crude oil extraction from the Snorre field (green area) together with the annualized extraction (black dotted line).https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/4b7ae-fig-05-crude-oil-production-for-gullfaks-south-since-2005.pngFIG 05 CRUDE OIL PRODUCTION FOR GULLFAKS SOUTH SINCE 2005Figure 05: The chart above shows the developments in crude oil extraction from the Gullfaks South field (green area) together with the annualized extraction (black dotted line).https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/3ecc0-fig-04-changes-to-norwegian-crude-oil-production-annualized.pngFIG 04 CHANGES TO NORWEGIAN CRUDE OIL PRODUCTION ANNUALIZEDFigure 04: The chart above shows developments in the annualized rate of change to total NCS crude oil extraction [blue line] and the rate of change for discoveries started to flow prior to 2002 [red line] (right hand scale) together with the oil price [(Brent spot) black line and left hand scale].2014-09-26T18:37:04+00:00monthlyhttps://runelikvern.com/2014/09/20/the-crude-oil-price-and-changes-to-total-global-private-creditdebt/https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/fd56a-fig-7-oil-price-and-fed-policies-2006-to-sep-2014.pngFIG 7 OIL PRICE AND FED POLICIES 2006 TO SEP 2014Figure 7: The chart above shows the developments in the oil price [Brent spot] and the time of central banks’ announcement/deployment of available tools to support the financial markets which the economy is very dependent on. The global financial system has by others been compared with the operating system for a computer. NOTE 1: The Fed sets the Federal Funds Rate which greatly affects financial interest rates. NOTE 2: The chart only shows the timing of major moves from the Fed. This was to avoid crowding the chart with information. This approach was chosen for designing the chart due to the size of the US economy, together with the fact that the US$ serves as the world’s dominant reserve currency and the central banks coordinates their efforts. https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/8ecae-fig-6-bis-developments-in-global-debt-levels.pngFIG 6 BIS DEVELOPMENTS IN GLOBAL DEBT LEVELSFigure 6: The chart above shows the developments in total (stacked columns split by sector) debt to GDP percentage on the right hand scale. The red dots connected by a red line shows development in global total debt in US$ Trillion on the left hand scale. https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/ee734-fig-5-bis-global-bank-credit.pngFIG 5 BIS GLOBAL BANK CREDITFigure 5: The 6 panel graphic above shows global bank credit aggregates and the most important borrower regions. The chart at upper left shows that global bank credit more than doubled from 2000 to 2013. In the US [upper middle chart] the growth in bank credit slowed from around 2007 (the subprime/housing crisis) and overall credit growth was continued by increased public borrowing for deficit spending. In the Euro area [upper right chart] the total debt levels led to a slowdown in growth of bank credit post 2008 (or the Global Financial Crisis; GFC) and more recently it appears as deleveraging has started [default is one mechanism of deleveraging]. In the Euro area petroleum consumption is now down around 13% since 2008. Asia Pacific [lower left chart] which includes China, continued a strong credit growth and thus carried on the global credit growth. Latin America [lower middle chart] which includes Brazil, continued together with Asia Pacific the strong total global credit growth. Global GDP in 2013 was estimated at above US$70 Trillion. https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/16664-fig-4-some-non-oecd-countries-developments-in-private-debt-1999-q12014.pngFIG 4 SOME NON OECD COUNTRIES DEVELOPMENTS IN PRIVATE DEBT 1999 Q12014Figure 4: The chart above shows the relative developments in total private non financial debts in the Russian Federation, India, Brazil, China, Indonesia, Argentina, Saudi Arabia, Malaysia and Thailand [the same countries as in figure 3] from the end of 1999 [end of 1999 was used as baseline = 100] and as of Q1 2014 plotted against the right hand scale. The oil price [Brent spot] for the same period is shown against the left hand scale. Note the scaling of the right hand y-axis to that of the OECD countries in figure 2. https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/c7aa6-fig-3-some-non-oecd-countries-oil-consumption-1999-2013.pngFIG 3 SOME NON OECD COUNTRIES OIL CONSUMPTION 1999 2013Figure 3: The chart above shows the developments in petroleum consumption in China, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Saudi Arabia, Russian Federation, Argentina and Brazil for the years 1999 - 2013 (stacked areas and right hand scale) together with the oil price [Brent spot] yellow dots and left hand scale.https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/e15a1-fig-2-some-oecd-countries-relative-developments-in-private-debt-1999-q12014.pngFIG 2 SOME OECD COUNTRIES RELATIVE DEVELOPMENTS IN PRIVATE DEBT 1999 Q12014Figure 2: The chart above shows the relative developments in total private non financial debts for Spain, United Kingdom, Italy, Portugal, the US and Japan [the same countries as in figure 1] from the end of 1999 [end of 1999 was used as baseline = 100] and as of Q1 2014 plotted against the right hand scale. The oil price [Brent spot] for the same period is shown against the left hand scale.https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/cc4bb-fig-1-some-oecd-countries-oil-consumption-1999-2013.pngFIG 1 SOME OECD COUNTRIES OIL CONSUMPTION 1999 2013Figure 1: The chart above shows the developments in petroleum consumption in Japan, Italy, Portugal, Spain, United Kingdom and US for the years 1999 - 2013 (stacked areas and right hand scale) together with the oil price [Brent spot] yellow dots and left hand scale.2014-10-02T18:21:22+00:00monthlyhttps://runelikvern.com/2014/06/28/the-revival-of-mountrails-old-sweet-spots/https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/eac5c-fig-14-montana-elm-coulee-as-of-mar-14.pngFIG 14 MONTANA ELM COULEE AS OF MAR 14Figure 14: The chart above shows development for tight oil extraction from the Bakken/Three Forks formation Elm Coulee and Elm Coulee Northeast in Montana. The chart also shows developments in total reported number of producing wells.https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/8c3d8-fig-13-changes-in-no-of-idle-wells-and-totals-apr-14.pngFIG 13 CHANGES IN NO OF IDLE WELLS AND TOTALS APR 14Figure 13: Chart above shows changes in Month over Month (MoM) number of idle wells [blue columns, lh scale and note the axis] for the 4 counties with the biggest extraction and the totals [yellow circles connected by black line, rh scale]. https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/1ad69-fig-12-parshall-pool-apr-14.pngFIG 12 PARSHALL POOL APR 14Figure 12: The chart above shows the development in total oil extraction for the Parshall pool. The chart also shows the development of the total number of wells (yellow circles connected by black lines) plotted against lh scale. The columns at the bottom shows the month over month changes in wells (lh scale). NOTE: The chart does not include wells and their extraction that is on confidential list. https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/4a14f-fig-11-alger-pool-with-statoil-apr-14.pngFIG 11 ALGER POOL WITH STATOIL APR 14Figure 11: The chart above shows the development in total oil extraction for the Alger pool split between the company with highest production (Statoil, dark green area), and others, pink area, all rh scale. The chart also shows the development of the number of wells split on Statoil with the highest number of wells (white circles connected by grey lines) and total number of wells (yellow circles connected by black lines) both plotted against lh scale. The columns at the bottom shows the month over month changes in well additions (lh scale). NOTE: The chart does not include wells and their extraction that is on confidential list. https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/4bcae-fig-10-mountrail-minus-parshall-and-reunion-bay-apr-14.pngFIG 10 MOUNTRAIL MINUS PARSHALL AND REUNION BAY APR 14Figure 10: The chart above shows development for oil extraction in Mountrail county in North Dakota minus the contributions from Parshall and Reunion Bay that in recent months have shown good, renewed growth (refer also figure 09). https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/e81e9-fig-09-mountrail-by-pools-apr-14.pngFIG 09 MOUNTRAIL BY POOLS APR 14Figure 09: The chart above shows development for oil extraction in Mountrail county in North Dakota. The extraction developments have been split to show developments for some of the “old” sweet spots/pools. NOTE: The total oil extraction includes extraction from wells on confidential list. The extraction from the shown pools does not include extraction from wells on confidential list, thus actual extraction from these pools should be expected to be somewhat higher than shown in the chart Extraction from other Mountrail should thus be expected to be corresponding lower. https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/b39e5-fig-08-bakken-development-in-specific-extraction-apr-14.pngFIG 08 BAKKEN DEVELOPMENT IN SPECIFIC EXTRACTION APR 14Figure 08: Chart above shows developments in specific oil extraction; that is the number of barrels of oil per well per day, for the 4 counties with the highest oil extraction and all Bakken/Three Forks.https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/13119-fig-06-oil-extraction-other-north-dakota-apr-14.pngFIG 06 OIL EXTRACTION OTHER NORTH DAKOTA APR 14Figure 06: The chart above shows development in NDIC reported oil extracted from the other counties in North Dakota. The black line shows the development in total oil extraction for these counties expressed by the 12 MMA.https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/0f0a2-fig-07-net-additions-of-producing-wells-apr-14.pngFIG 07 NET ADDITIONS OF PRODUCING WELLS APR 14Figure 07: Chart above shows developments in the 12 Month Moving Average (12 MMA or 12 months trailing average to smoothen seasonal swings) changes in reported number of net added producing wells for the 4 counties with the highest oil extraction and other North Dakota. https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/363e8-fig-05-bakken-4-counties-with-highest-oil-extraction.pngFIG 05 BAKKEN 4 COUNTIES WITH HIGHEST OIL EXTRACTIONFigure 05: The chart above shows development for oil extraction from the individual counties in North Dakota with the highest oil extraction.2014-06-28T17:43:34+00:00monthlyhttps://runelikvern.com/2014/06/14/norways-petroleum-economy-struggles-with-declining-debt-productivity/https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/57dbd-figure-8-norway-annualized-changes-in-total-debt-versus-the-oil-price.pngFIGURE 8 NORWAY ANNUALIZED CHANGES IN TOTAL DEBT VERSUS THE OIL PRICEFigure 8: Chart above shows Norwegian households’ [blue columns], non financial [orange columns] and municipalities [grey columns] 12 Months Moving Totals (annualized) change in debt plotted against the rh scale. The green dots connected by black lines show the development in the nominal oil price (Brent spot) plotted against the lh scale.https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/b017d-figure-7-norway-growth-in-total-gross-debt-1988-to-2014.pngFIGURE 7 NORWAY GROWTH IN TOTAL GROSS DEBT 1988 TO 2014Figure 7: The stacked areas in the chart above show development in total debt (municipalities [grey area], non-Financial [orange area] and households [blue area] plotted against the rh scale). The black line, plotted against the lh scale show year over year relative change in total debt for these sectors.https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/b05bf-figure-6-norway-relative-changes-in-mainland-gdp-and-debts-1988-to-2013.pngFIGURE 6 NORWAY RELATIVE CHANGES IN MAINLAND GDP AND DEBTS 1988 TO 2013Figure 6: Chart above shows YoY change in mainland Norway GDP [green lines) and total changes to households, non-Financials and municipalities debt relative to mainland Norway GDP [red lines].https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/36336-figure-5-norway-relative-yoy-change-in-gdp-and-debt.pngFIGURE 5 NORWAY RELATIVE YOY CHANGE IN GDP AND DEBTFigure 5: The chart above shows relative developments for Norwegian YoY change in GDP [black lines] and Norwegian mainland YoY change in GDP [green lines] and households, non-Financials and municipalities (munis) YoY change in debt relative to GDP [red lines]. Thicker lines show the 5 year trailing averages. https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/b8577-figure-4-norway-households-change-in-disposable-income-and-debt.pngFIGURE 4 NORWAY HOUSEHOLDS CHANGE IN DISPOSABLE INCOME AND DEBTFigure 4: The chart above shows Norwegian households YoY change in disposable income [blue columns, rh scale] and households YoY change in debt [red columns, rh scale]. The thick violet line shows the YoY change in HIPD by vintage and the thinner violet line the 5 year trailing averages of HIPD [both lh scale].https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/4a77f-figure-3-norway-yoy-changes-in-gdp-and-debt.pngFIGURE 3 NORWAY YOY CHANGES IN GDP AND DEBTFigure 3: Chart above shows Year over Year (YoY) change in Norwegian nominal GDP (inclusive petroleum related activities) [blue columns, rh scale] and YoY change in nominal total debts (households, municipalities and non-Financials (inclusive oil companies and companies delivering products/services to the petroleum industry) [red columns, rh scale]. The thick black line shows the Marginal Productivity of Debt (MDP) by vintage and the thin gray line the 5 year trailing average plotted against the lh scale. In 2013 1.00 NOK of additional debt added less than 0.40 NOK to the GDP. https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/16e01-figure-2-npd-data-on-norwegian-petroleum-spending.pngFIGURE 2 NPD DATA ON NORWEGIAN PETROLEUM SPENDINGFigure 2: The chart above shows the development in actual spending for petroleum related activities (by discipline) for the years 2001- 2013 and Norwegian Petroleum Directorate’s (NPD) forecast for the years 2014 - 2018 [stacked columns and right hand scale]. The developments in the annual nominal oil price (Brent spot) are shown as yellow circles connected by a black line [left hand scale]. https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/bd287-figure-1-norway-gdp-split-on-petroleum-and-mainland-norway.pngFIGURE 1 NORWAY GDP SPLIT ON PETROLEUM AND MAINLAND NORWAYFigure 1: Chart above shows the development in the Norwegian Gross Domestic Product (GDP) split on mainland Norway (brown area) and petroleum and maritime activities (green area). The Norwegian petroleum activities are offshore within the Norwegian maritime economic zone. At present exchange rates Norway’s GDP for 2013 was around $500 Billion (nominal). The black line shows the development for total nominal disposable income for Norwegian households. 2014-06-14T05:21:21+00:00monthlyhttps://runelikvern.com/2014/05/20/central-banks-balance-sheets-interest-rates-and-the-oil-price/https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/04f82-fig-5-wti-futures-curves-development.pngFIG 5 WTI FUTURES CURVES DEVELOPMENTFigure 5: The chart above has been lifted from a recent Morgan Stanley report and shows how the forward curve for oil [Western Texas Intermediate; WTI] has evolved since 2010 and as of March 2014. NOTE: The forward curve is a poor predictor of actual prices in the future.The forward curve however reveals market sentiment. https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/d4065-fig-4-world-crude-oil-and-condensates-vs-oil-price.pngFIG 4 WORLD CRUDE OIL AND CONDENSATES VS OIL PRICEFigure 4: The chart above show world supplies of crude oil and condensates [green columns plotted against the right axis] from July 2006 and to December 2013. In the chart is also shown the development in the monthly oil price (Brent spot) [white circles connected by a white line plotted against the left axis]. Both variables have lines added describing the 12 Months Moving Averages.https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/a8c2c-fig-3-brent-oil-price-and-feds-policies.pngFIG 3 BRENT OIL PRICE AND FEDs POLICIESFigure 3: The chart above shows the developments in the oil price [Brent spot] and the time of central banks’ announcement/deployment of available tools to support the financial markets which the economy is dependent on. The financial system has by others been compared with the operating system for a computer. NOTE 1: The Fed sets the Federal Funds Rate which greatly affects financial interest rates. NOTE 2: The chart only shows the timing of major moves from the Fed. This was to avoid crowding the chart with information. This approach was chosen for designing the chart due to the size of the US economy, together with the fact that the US$ serves as the world's dominant reserve currency and the western central banks coordinates their efforts. https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/7b7f3-fig-2-cbs-balance-sheets-and-interest-rates.pngFIG 2 CBs BALANCE SHEETS AND INTEREST RATESFigure 2: The chart above has been lifted from a recent article at ZeroHedge (linked above). The green line in the chart shows total central banks’ assets [outer right axis] in US$ Trillion. The blue line [inner right axis] shows developments in the interest rate, %.https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/f19b4-fig-1-oil-price-cbs-balance-sheets-and-oil-price.pngFIG 1 OIL PRICE CBs BALANCE SHEETS AND OIL PRICEFigure 1: The chart above is a composite of two charts. The bottom chart shows the developments for the total central banks’ assets on the balance sheets and the interest rate for Federal Reserve [Fed], European Central Bank [ECB], Bank of England [BoE] and Bank of Japan [BoJ]. Developments in total central banks’ assets in US$ Trillion are shown by the green line and plotted versus the outer right hand scale. Developments in the interest rate (%) are shown by the dark blue line line and plotted versus the inner right hand scale. On top of the chart and with synchronized time axes is overlaid the development in the oil price (US$/Bbl, Brent spot), red line and plotted versus the left hand scale. 2014-06-03T08:28:35+00:00monthlyhttps://runelikvern.com/2014/05/05/global-credit-growth-interest-rate-and-oil-price-are-these-related/https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/5174f-fig-11-solar-and-wind-1990-to-2012.pngFIG 11 SOLAR AND WIND 1990 TO 2012Figure 11: The chart with the stacked areas shows the world’s growth in the wind (turquoise area) and solar (yellow area) energy consumption with 1990 as a baseline. The energy unit used is Million Tons of Oil Equivalents [MTOE].https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/a4e28-fig-10-statoil-equity-production-gross-debt-and-profits.pngFIG 10 STATOIL EQUITY PRODUCTION GROSS DEBT AND PROFITSFigure 10: The chart above shows development in Statoil’s equity volumes of oil (green) and gas (red) columns against the left hand axis. In the chart is also shown development In gross debt (black line) and profits (blue line) against the right hand axis. Entitlement volumes are affected by effects from Production Sharing Agreements (PSA). https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/8bd20-fig-09-eia-sources-and-uses-for-cash.pngFIG 09 EIA SOURCES AND USES FOR CASH“Although oil prices remained relatively flat in 2012 and 2013, rising costs contributed to a decline in cash flow from operations. Nonetheless, cash spent on investing activities, which tends to lag changes in cash flow, increased slightly in 2013 as companies increased debt to maintain investment, taking advantage of interest rates that have been low since 2009. Companies have increased debt every year since 2006, with long-term debt increasing 9% and 11% in 2012 and 2013, respectively.”https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/fbec4-fig-08-petroleum-consumption-net-exporters-2012-and-oil-price.pngFIG 08 PETROLEUM CONSUMPTION NET EXPORTERS 2012 AND OIL PRICEFigure 08: The stacked chart above shows development in petroleum consumption for those countries that were net oil exporters in 2012 [right hand scale]. The chart also shows the development in the (annual) oil price [black line left hand scale].https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/9c743-fig-07-petroleum-consumption-eu-us-brazil-and-china.pngFIG 07 PETROLEUM CONSUMPTION EU US BRAZIL AND CHINAFigure 07: The stacked areas in the chart above shows development in petroleum consumption for European Union [EU] [orange area, US [blue area], Brazil [green area] and China [red area] from 1990 and as of 2012 [right hand axis]. The development in the nominal oil price [Brent spot] is shown as a black line [left hand axis]. https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/9b332-fig-06-petroleum-consumption-brazial-and-china-1990-to-2012.pngFIG 06 PETROLEUM CONSUMPTION BRAZIAL AND CHINA 1990 TO 2012Figure 06: The stacked areas in the chart above shows development in petroleum consumption for Brazil [green area] and China [red area] from 1990 and as of 2012 [right hand axis]. The development in the nominal oil price [Brent spot] is shown as a black line [left hand axis]. https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/3869c-fig-05-petroleum-consumption-eu-and-usa-1990-to-2012.pngFIG 05 PETROLEUM CONSUMPTION EU AND USA 1990 TO 2012Figure 05: The stacked areas in the chart above shows development in petroleum consumption for European Union [EU] [orange area] and US [blue area] from 1990 and as of 2012 [right hand axis].https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/07176-fig-04-world-relative-energy-mix-and-oil-price-1965-to-2012.pngFIG 04 WORLD RELATIVE ENERGY MIX AND OIL PRICE 1965 TO 2012Figure 04: The chart above shows the development of the portions of the energy sources used in the world’s energy mixture from 1965 to 2012 [areas plotted against the right axis]. In the chart is also shown the development in the nominal oil price [black line against the left hand axis].https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/37ae0-fig-03-us-10-year-treasury-and-oil-price.pngFIG 03 US 10 YEAR TREASURY AND OIL PRICEFigure 03: The chart above shows development in the US 10 year Treasury interest [red line, right hand scale] and the nominal oil price [Brent spot, black line and left hand scale] from 1962 to 2013. In the chart is also shown some major events that influenced the oil price and/or the interest rate. https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/330e5-fig-02-oil-price-and-some-macro-trends.pngFIG 02 OIL PRICE AND SOME MACRO TRENDSFigure 02: The chart shows the development in the nominal price of oil (Brent spot) for the period January 1990 to April 2014. In the chart is also suggested some macro trends that may have been in play for the formation of the oil price.2014-05-13T22:09:15+00:00monthlyhttps://runelikvern.com/2014/04/18/norwegian-crude-oil-reserves-and-production-per-2013/https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/24b02-fig-6-development-in-brent-oil-price-and-some-trends.pngFIG 6 DEVELOPMENT IN BRENT OIL PRICE AND SOME TRENDSFigure 6: The figure shows the development in the nominal price of oil (Brent spot) for the period January 1995 to April 2014. In the chart is also suggested some macro trends that may have been in play for the formation of the oil price.https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/26757-fig-5-norway-oil-production-for-2013-sorted-on-r-over-p.pngFIG 5 NORWAY OIL PRODUCTION FOR 2013 SORTED ON R OVER PFigure 5: The chart above shows cumulative NCS production versus the producing fields/discoveries R/P ratio at end 2013 plotted against the right hand scale [black dots connected by a black line]. The red line plotted against the left hand scale shows the cumulative portion of the production versus the R/P ratio.https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/5ef4b-fig-4-norway-creaming-curve-produced-remaining-and-under-evaluation-2013.pngFIG 4 NORWAY CREAMING CURVE PRODUCED REMAINING AND UNDER EVALUATION 2013Figure 4: The chart above shows the development of total NCS crude oil discoveries since exploration began and as of end 2013 [data from NPD Resource Accounting at end 2013]. The chart is often referred to as a “creaming curve”. The light green portion of the columns shows the development in total recovered, sold and delivered. The dark green portion shows the development in estimated remaining recoverable reserves. The yellow portion shows the development in total estimated reserves in discoveries that has not been sanctioned at end 2013. Johan Sverdrup is presently included in the yellow portion of the columns. https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/73a2e-fig-3-norway-oil-discoveries-and-status-2013.pngFIG 3 NORWAY OIL DISCOVERIES AND STATUS 2013Figure 3: The figure shows the history and the status of the total discoveries by year (stacked columns) since oil exploration started on the Norwegian Continental Shelf and as of 2013. The light green columns show what has been recovered, sold and delivered. The dark green portion of the columns is total remaining reserves. The yellow portion of the columns shows reserves in discoveries under evaluation. Furthermore, in the chart is also shown annual production (thick black line) of crude oil since production began in the 1970s. The chart also has a table that shows the year of discovery for fields estimated to hold more than 1 billion barrels (Gb) of recoverable crude oil. (Gb; Giga = Giga, Billion barrels) https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/042d4-fig-2-norway-sanctioned-developments-2014-to-2017.pngFIG 2 NORWAY SANCTIONED DEVELOPMENTS 2014 TO 2017Figure 2: The figure above shows a forecast of crude oil production from NCS sanctioned fields which is scheduled to start to flow during the years 2014 to 2017. Any changes to the scheduled startups could affect the forecasts as shown in figures 1 and 2.https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/e5de1-fig-1-norway-actual-oil-production-2013-and-forecast-to-2040.pngFIG 1 NORWAY ACTUAL OIL PRODUCTION 2013 AND FORECAST TO 2040Figure 1: The chart shows the historical production (or more precisely extraction) of crude oil (by discovery/field) for the Norwegian Continental Shelf (NCS) with data from the Norwegian Petroleum Directorate (NPD) for the years 1970 - 2013. The chart also includes a forecast for crude oil production from discoveries/fields towards 2040 based on reviews on individual fields, NPD’s estimates of remaining recoverable reserves, the development/forecast for the R/P ratio etc. as of end 2013. Further, the chart shows a forecast for total crude oil production from sanctioned discoveries/fields (green area, refer also Figure 2) and expected contribution from Johan Sverdrup (blue area) [at end 2013 estimated at 2.23 Gb; [Gb, Giga barrels, refer also figure 3] which is now scheduled to start flowing late 2019. "Sanctioned Developments" in Figure 1 represents the total contributions from 13 sanctioned developments of discoveries now scheduled to start to flow between 2014 and 2017. 2014-04-23T02:49:29+00:00monthlyhttps://runelikvern.com/2013/12/23/in-bakken-nd-it-is-now-mostly-about-mckenzie-county/https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/d5cd9-17-portion-of-wells-idle-4-big-ones.png17 PORTION OF WELLS IDLE 4 BIG ONESFigure 17: Chart above shows developments in the portion of idle wells relative to the number of wells capable of producing for the 4 counties with the biggest production. https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/e1ee2-16-number-of-idle-wells-4-big-ones.png16 NUMBER OF IDLE WELLS 4 BIG ONESFigure 16: Chart above shows developments in number of idle wells for the 4 counties with the biggest production. https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/3ee05-15-development-in-well-density-4-big-ones.png15 DEVELOPMENT IN WELL DENSITY 4 BIG ONESFigure 15: Chart above shows developments in well densities for the 4 counties with the biggest production. 1 square mile = 640 acres https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/454fc-14-mom-change-in-actual-producing-wells-4-big-ones.png14 MoM CHANGE IN ACTUAL PRODUCING WELLS 4 BIG ONESFigure 14: Chart above shows developments in month over month changes of actual producing wells for the 4 counties with the highest oil production. The chart also include 12 MMAs for the same counties.https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/c6eb8-13-number-of-wells-actually-producing-4-big-ones.png13 NUMBER OF WELLS ACTUALLY PRODUCING 4 BIG ONESFigure 13: Chart above shows developments in reported number of actual producing wells for the 4 counties with the biggest oil production in North Dakota. https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/f2d9b-12-mom-change-in-capable-wells-4-big-ones.png12 MoM CHANGE IN CAPABLE WELLS 4 BIG ONESFigure 12: Chart above shows developments in month over month changes in wells capable of producing for the 4 counties with the highest oil production. The chart also include 12 MMAs for the same counties.https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/f3495-11-number-of-wells-capable-of-producing-4-big-ones.png11 NUMBER OF WELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 4 BIG ONESFigure 11: Chart above shows developments in reported number of wells capable of producing for the 4 counties with the biggest oil production in North Dakota.https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/e6a44-10-sanish-bakken-production.png10 SANISH BAKKEN PRODUCTIONFigure 10: The chart above shows the development in total tight oil production for the Sanish pool, dark green area, rh scale. The chart also shows the development in the total number of wells (yellow circles connected by black lines) plotted against lh scale. The black columns at the bottom shows a month over month changes in wells (pH scale). NOTE: The chart does not include wells and production from wells on confidential list. https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/5ea5e-09-alger-split-on-statoil-and-others.png09 ALGER SPLIT ON STATOIL AND OTHERSFigure 09: The chart above shows the development in total tight oil production for the Alger pool split between the company with highest production (Statoil, dark green area), and others, pink area all rh scale. The chart also shows the development of the number of wells split on Statoil with the highest number of wells (white circles connected by grey lines) and total number of wells (yellow circles connected by black lines) both plotted against lh scale. The black columns at the bottom shows a month over month changes in wells (lh scale). NOTE: The chart does not include wells and production from wells on confidential list. https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/db74b-08-other-nd-counties-with-12-mma.png08 OTHER ND COUNTIES WITH 12 MMAFigure 08: The chart above shows development in NDIC reported oil production from the other counties in North Dakota. The black line shows the oil production development for these counties expressed by 12 MMA.2014-01-03T17:30:38+00:00monthlyhttps://runelikvern.com/2013/12/14/a-closer-look-into-the-drivers-of-the-norwegian-economys-recent-growth-success/https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/9974f-fig-9-exchange-rate-norwegian-krone-versus-important-trading-partners.pngFIG 9 EXCHANGE RATE NORWEGIAN KRONE VERSUS IMPORTANT TRADING PARTNERSFigure 9: The chart above shows the relative development in the exchange rate for the Norwegian Krone against some of its major trading partners in 2013. HOW TO READ THE CHART: If the value moves below 1 it means the Norwegian Krone gains purchasing power (appreciates) versus its trading partners. If the value moves above 1 it means the Norwegian Krone loses purchasing power (depreciates) versus its trading partners.https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/43d11-fig-8-development-of-the-oil-price-versus-som-macro-trends.pngFIG 8 DEVELOPMENT OF THE OIL PRICE VERSUS SOM MACRO TRENDSFigure 8: The chart above shows the development in the nominal price of Brent spot and some major macro trends and what market forces that in the recent time have influenced the price formation for oil.https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/f6523-fig-7-norway-municipalities-annualized-debt-growth.pngFIG 7 NORWAY MUNICIPALITIES ANNUALIZED DEBT GROWTHFigure 7: The diagram above shows development in Norwegian municipalities change in debt by 12 Months Moving Totals (Annualized) [dark blue line plotted against the rh scale]. The chart also shows the annual rate of change [black dotted line plotted against the lh scale].https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/131e0-fig-6-norway-non-financials-annualized-debt-growth.pngFIG 6 NORWAY NON FINANCIALS ANNUALIZED DEBT GROWTHFigure 6: The diagram above shows development in Norwegian non financial change in debt by 12 Months Moving Totals (Annualized) [dark blue line plotted against the rh scale]. The chart also shows the annual rate of change [dark grey dotted line plotted against the lh scale].https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/0f866-fig-5-norway-households-annualised-debt-growth-and-relative-growth.pngFIG 5 NORWAY HOUSEHOLDS ANNUALISED DEBT GROWTH AND RELATIVE GROWTHFigure 5: The diagram above shows development in Norwegian households’ change in debt by 12 Months Moving Totals (Annualized) [red line plotted against the rh scale]. The chart also shows the annual rate of change [black dotted line plotted against the lh scale]. NOTE: The discontinuities (like for 2012) are according to Statistics Norway due to alignment of reporting to accepted international standards.https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/5c169-fig-4-norway-annualized-debt-growth-versus-oil-price.pngFIG 4 NORWAY ANNUALIZED DEBT GROWTH VERSUS OIL PRICEFigure 4: Chart above shows Norwegian households’ [blue columns], non financials [orange columns] and municipalities [grey columns] 12 Months Moving Totals (annualized) change in debt plotted against the rh scale. The green dots connected by black lines show the development in the nominal oil price (Brent spot) plotted against the lh scale.https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/973dc-fig-3-norway-some-sectors-total-debt-and-debtgrowth.pngFIG 3 NORWAY SOME SECTORS TOTAL DEBT AND DEBTGROWTHFigure 3: The stacked areas in the chart above show development in total debt (municipalities [grey area], non financial [orange area] and households [blue area] plotted against the rh scale). The black line, plotted against the lh scale show year over year change in total debt for these sectors. 6 NOK ~ 1 USDhttps://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/0fdec-fig-2-norway-petroeum-investments-and-exploration-versus-oil-price.pngFIG 2 NORWAY PETROEUM INVESTMENTS AND EXPLORATION VERSUS OIL PRICEFigure 2: The chart above shows developments in total investments in the petroleum activities [black line] broken down into investments [red line] and exploration [blue line] all plotted against the rh scale. The (nominal) oil price [yellow dots connected by grey lines] are included and plotted against the lh scale. https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/91a2c-fig-1-norway-trade-figures.pngFIG 1 NORWAY TRADE FIGURESFigure 1: The stacked columns in the chart above show the development in the 12 Months Moving Totals (Annualized) for Norwegian exports split on petroleum (oil, condensates and natural gas [green columns]) and exports exclusive of petroleum [black columns]. The orange line shows the development in the 12 Months Moving Totals (Annualized) for total imports and the pink line the 12 Months Moving Totals (Annualized) for the trade balance. 6 NOK ~ 1 USD By clicking on the chart a bigger version opens in a new tab/window (goes for all the charts in this post). 2013-12-26T20:06:41+00:00monthlyhttps://runelikvern.com/2013/11/30/tight-oil-and-oil-sand-versus-small-deep-water-developments-some-observations/https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/9c348-partial-cycle-break-even-cost-shale-oil-well-bakken.pngPARTIAL CYCLE BREAK EVEN COST SHALE OIL WELL BAKKENFigure 2: Chart above shows the break even price on a point forward (partial cycle) basis for a reference (average) well in the Bakken formation in North Dakota at some discount rates. At a realized oil price of $90/Bbl the Internal Rate of Return (IRR) on a point forward basis was estimated at around 22%. (Which is good!) Estimates do not include costs for debt services and income from natural gas/NGPL sales which now averages a gross of $3/Bbl. Entrance costs (acquisition costs for acreage and/or companies) are NOT included in the estimates presented in the chart above. Estimates shown are NOT full cycle break even costs. https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/e4f80-relative-yield-curves-elephants-small-deepwater-and-tight-oil.pngRELATIVE YIELD CURVES ELEPHANTS, SMALL DEEPWATER AND TIGHT OILFigure 1: Chart above shows relative developments in annualized yield curves (lh scale) of oil for so-called elephants (Norwegian deep water discoveries estimated to hold ultimate recoverable reserves (EUR) above 1,000 million barrels with crude oil [red lines]). Small discoveries (Norwegian deep water discoveries estimated to hold ultimate recoverable reserves (EUR) below 100 million barrels with crude oil, [green lines]). The reference tight oil well for Bakken [violet lines]. The cumulative versus time is plotted against the rh scale. Note also the short high flow life cycles of small deep water developments and tight oil. 2013-12-10T13:08:26+00:00monthlyhttps://runelikvern.com/2013/11/15/a-closer-look-at-some-recent-developments-offshore-norway/https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/04c02-fig-10-development-in-reserves-for-skuld.pngFIG 10 DEVELOPMENT IN RESERVES FOR SKULDFigure 10: Development of NPD estimates by vintage for recoverable reserves by category for the Skuld development. https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/97c07-fig-9-production-development-for-skuld.pngFIG 9 PRODUCTION DEVELOPMENT FOR SKULDFigure 9: Development of petroleum production by category for the Skuld development. https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/081ac-fig-8-development-in-reserves-for-oselvar.pngFIG 8 DEVELOPMENT IN RESERVES FOR OSELVARFigure 8: Development of NPD estimates by vintage for recoverable reserves by category for the Oselvar development. https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/7063d-fig-7-production-development-for-oselvar.pngFIG 7 PRODUCTION DEVELOPMENT FOR OSELVARFigure 7: Development of petroleum production by category for the Oselvar development. https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/66e95-fig-6-development-in-reserves-for-marulk.pngFIG 6 DEVELOPMENT IN RESERVES FOR MARULKFigure 6: Development of NPD estimates by vintage for recoverable reserves by category for the Marulk development.https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/3611b-fig-5-marulk-production-development.pngFIG 5 MARULK PRODUCTION DEVELOPMENTFigure 5: Development of petroleum production by category for the Marulk development. https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/4b708-fig-4-development-in-reserves-for-gaupe.pngFIG 4 DEVELOPMENT IN RESERVES FOR GAUPEFigure 4: Development of NPD estimates by vintage for recoverable reserves by category for the Gaupe development.https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/00c9d-fig-3-gaupe-production-development.pngFIG 3 GAUPE PRODUCTION DEVELOPMENTFigure 3: Development of petroleum production by category for the Gaupe development. https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/553d6-fig-2-crude-oil-production-from-ncs-fields-started-from-2002.pngFIG 2 CRUDE OIL PRODUCTION FROM NCS FIELDS STARTED FROM 2002Figure 2: Development in production from NCS discoveries brought to flow as from 2002.https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/f0493-fig-1-ncs-crude-oil-production-as-of-sep-13.pngFIG 1 NCS CRUDE OIL PRODUCTION AS OF SEP 13Figure 1: Development in crude oil production from the Norwegian Continental Shelf (NCS), split on fields flowing prior to January 1st 2002 (green) and discoveries developed to flow as from 2002. 2013-11-28T13:03:52+00:00monthlyhttps://runelikvern.com/2013/10/07/united-kingdom-energy-and-trade-balance/https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/c3177-fig-7-uk-trade-balance-and-estimates-for-energy-imports.pngFIG 7 UK TRADE BALANCE AND ESTIMATES FOR ENERGY IMPORTSFigure 7: Development of UK’s trade balances for the years 1996 - 2012 (yellow columns). In the chart (within the yellow columns and as stacked columns) is also shown estimates of the value of exports and imports of oil (green columns), natural gas (red columns) and coal (grey columns). https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/128d2-fig-6-development-in-oil-natural-gas-and-coal-prices.pngFIG 6 DEVELOPMENT IN OIL NATURAL GAS AND COAL PRICESFigure 6: Development in crude oil (Brent Spot), natural gas (NBP) and coal in TOE (Ton Oil Equivalents) for the years 1987 - 2012.https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/aa45b-fig-5-uk-coal-production-consumption-and-net-exports-and-imports.pngFIG 5 UK COAL PRODUCTION CONSUMPTION AND NET EXPORTS AND IMPORTSFigure 5: Development of UK’s coal production, consumption, net exports and net imports for the years 1981 - 2012. The chart also shows the development in the annual nominal coal price (Northwest Europe in USD/tonne) (black dots connected by grey line) for the years 1987 - 2012.https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/db9be-fig-4-uk-nat-gas-consumption-production-net-imports-and-exports.pngFIG 4 UK NAT GAS CONSUMPTION PRODUCTION NET IMPORTS AND EXPORTSFigure 4: Development of UK’s natural gas production, consumption, net exports and net imports for the years 1970 - 2012. The chart also shows the development in the annual nominal natural gas price (NBP; National Balancing Point) (black dots connected by grey line) for the years 1996 - 2012.https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/afea2-fig-3-uk-oil-production-consumption-net-exports-and-imports.pngFIG 3 UK OIL PRODUCTION CONSUMPTION NET EXPORTS AND IMPORTSFigure 3: Development of UK’s petroleum production, consumption, net imports and net exports for the years 1965 - 2012. The chart also shows the development in the annual nominal oil price (Brent Spot) (black dots connected by grey line) for the same years.https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/fa9a2-fig-2-uk-energy-production-by-source.pngFIG 2 UK ENERGY PRODUCTION BY SOURCEFigure 2: Development of UK’s total energy production for the years 1981 - 2012 split on energy sources. The chart also shows the development in UK energy consumption (black line) for the same years.https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/f5a12-fig-1-uk-energy-consumption-by-source.pngFIG 1 UK ENERGY CONSUMPTION BY SOURCEFigure 1: Development of UK’s total energy consumption for the years 1965 - 2012 split on energy sources. 2013-10-07T22:29:16+00:00monthlyhttps://runelikvern.com/2013/06/16/noen-inntrykk-fra-bp-statistical-review-2013/https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/0eb3f-fig11-china-energy-consumption-2012.pngFIG11 CHINA ENERGY CONSUMPTION 2012Figur 11: Kina sin utvikling i totalt energiforbruk for 1965 - 2012 og utvikling mellom energikilder. https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/22ca3-fig10-india-energy-consumption-2012.pngFIG10 INDIA ENERGY CONSUMPTION 2012Figur 10: India sin utvikling i totalt energiforbruk for 1965 - 2012 og utvikling mellom energikilder. https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/fa070-fig09-eu-nat-gas-consumption-by-source.pngFIG09 EU NAT GAS CONSUMPTION BY SOURCEFigur 09: Figuren viser utviklingen i EU (27) sitt naturgassforbruk for årene 2001 - 2012. For EU viser ferske prognoser fra EIA og IEA en ventet vekst i naturgassforbruket for EU til 550 - 600 milliarder kubikkmeter (Gcm) til 2020. I figuren er forbruket i EU splittet på egen utvinning, import fra Norge, rørledningsimport fra Nord Afrika og Russland samt import av flytende gass, LNG. I figuren er også vist prognoser for EUs utvinning og Norges forsyning mot 2020 og rørlednings- (Nord Afrika og Russland) og LNG import på 2012 nivå. https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/d49ce-fig08-piigs-petroleum-consumption-2012.pngFIG08 PIIGS PETROLEUM CONSUMPTION 2012Figur 08: Diagrammet ovenfor viserutviklingen i totalt petroleumsforbruk for PIIGS (Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece, Spain) for årene 1965 - 2012. https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/9c218-fig07-united-kingdom-energy-consumption-2012.pngFIG07 UNITED KINGDOM ENERGY CONSUMPTION 2012Figur 07: Storbritannia sin utvikling i totalt energiforbruk for 1965 - 2012 og utvikling mellom energikilder. https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/483b1-fig06-spain-energy-consumption-2012.pngFIG06 SPAIN ENERGY CONSUMPTION 2012Figur 06: Spania sin utvikling i totalt energiforbruk for 1965 - 2012 og utvikling mellom energikilder. https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/9d8b2-fig05-germany-energy-consumption-2012.pngFIG05 GERMANY ENERGY CONSUMPTION 2012Figur 05: Tyskland sin utvikling i totalt energiforbruk for 1965 - 2012 og utvikling mellom energikilder. https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/dd840-fig04-oecd-energy-consumption-2012.pngFIG04 OECD ENERGY CONSUMPTION 2012Figur 04: Utvikling i totalt energiforbruk for 1965 - 2012 for OECD og utvikling mellom energikilder. https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/535d4-fig03-price-developments-oil-nat-gas-and-coal.pngFIG03 PRICE DEVELOPMENTS OIL NAT GAS AND COALFigur 03: Figuren viser nominell prisutvikling i USD per tonn oljeekvivalent (TOE) for olje, naturgass og kull i Europa for årene 1987 - 2012.https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/cc731-fig02-relative-cons-by-energy-source-2012.pngFIG02 RELATIVE CONS BY ENERGY SOURCE 2012Figur 02: Verdens utvikling i totalt energiforbruk for 1965 - 2012 med relativ utvikling mellom energikilder. 2013-06-17T12:32:29+00:00monthlyhttps://runelikvern.com/2013/06/12/hva-retning-skal-oljeprisen/https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/1bbd7-fig10-relative-price-development-oil-gas-coal1.pngFIG10 RELATIVE PRICE DEVELOPMENT OIL GAS COALFigur 10: Figuren viser utviklingen i nominell pris i US$ for olje, naturgass og kull for årene 1987 til 2012 per Tonn Olje Ekvivalent (TOE) i Europa.https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/badb0-fig09-spain-petroleum-costs.pngFIG09 SPAIN PETROLEUM COSTSFigur 09: Figuren viser estimater på månedlige kostnader (i US$) sammen med det løpende 12 måneders gjennomsnittet for Spania.https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/163c8-fig08-portugal-petroleum-costs.pngFIG08 PORTUGAL PETROLEUM COSTSFigur 08: Figuren viser estimater på månedlige kostnader (i US$) sammen med det løpende 12 måneders gjennomsnittet for Portugal.2013-06-17T03:34:22+00:00monthlyhttps://runelikvern.com/2013/03/14/639/https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/b3d70-table-1-norwegian-nat-gas-discoveries-20121.pngTABLE 1 NORWEGIAN NAT GAS DISCOVERIES 2012Tabell 1: Tabellen viser Oljedirektoratets estimater på totale volum og antall funn med gass etter ressurskategori ved årsslutt 2012.https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/7e9a6-fig-5-olje-naturgass-og-kullpris-2011.pngFIG 5 OLJE NATURGASS OG KULLPRIS 2011Figur 5: Figuren viser utviklingen i nominell pris for olje, naturgass og kull for årene 1987 til 2011 per Tonn Olje Ekvivalent (TOE) i Europa.https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/f1e29-fig-4-eu27-naturgassforsyning-prognose-mot-2020.pngFIG 4 EU27 NATURGASSFORSYNING PROGNOSE MOT 2020Figur 4: Figuren viser utviklingen produksjonen av naturgass for EU 27, Norge, import gjennom rørledning fra Russland/Eurasia og import av LNG for årene 2001 - 2011. Videre er det vist en prognose for EU 27 og Norge mot 2020 og et fremvoksende forsyningsgap mot 2020 om prognosen for forbruksutviklingen fra IEA WEO 2012 (New Policies) legges til grunn.https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/baf6c-fig-3-norsk-naturgass-r-over-p-forhold-2013.pngFIG 3 NORSK NATURGASS R OVER P FORHOLD 2013Figur 3: Figuren viser hvordan produksjonen av naturgass fra norsk sokkel ville kunne bli om produksjonen fulgte R/P forholdene slik disse var ved årsslutt 2012. I virkeligheten følger ikke utvinningen et slik rektangulært profil (selv om det av lønnsomhetsmessige årsaker ville vært ønskelig). Ettersom reservoarene nedtappes vil de på et eller annet tidspunkt (kan være ved 70 - 80 % nedtapping) miste utvinnings potensial som normalt følger en nedadgående bane. I figuren er også vist OD sin prognose fra presentasjonen av sokkelåret 2012 Figuren er basert på reserveestimatene og utvinningsdataene fra OD ved årsslutt 2012 og inkluderer alle felt i utvinning, besluttet utbygd eller med innsendt søknad for utbygging (som Aasta Hansteen som i figuren er inkludert i den brune søylen (others)). https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/71bbf-fig-2-norsk-naturgass-status-2012.pngFIG 2 NORSK NATURGASS STATUS 2012Figur 2: Figuren viser historikken i og status for totale årlige funn (stablede søyler) fra petroleumsvirksomheten startet på norsk sektor og til årsslutt 2012. De rosa søylene viser hva som er utvunnet, solgt og levert. Mørk rød er estimerte totale gjenværende reserver. De gule søylene viser reserver i funn det ikke er fattet beslutning om. Videre viser figuren årlig uttak (tykk sort linje) av naturgass siden gassutvinningen startet i 1977. I figuren er også en tabell som viser funnår for alle feltene med mer enn 100 milliarder kubikkmeter utvinnbar naturgass. (Gcm; Giga cubic meters = milliarder kubikkmeter) https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/52d3e-fig-1-norsk-naturgass-prognose-2013-til-2020.pngFIG 1 NORSK NATURGASS PROGNOSE 2013 TIL 2020Figur 1: Figuren ovenfor viser den historiske utviklingen i norsk gassutvinning etter felt fra 1996 og til 2011 slik dette har blitt rapportert av OD. Figuren viser også en prognose (laget av forfatteren) for perioden 2013 og mot 2020. Prognosen omfatter alle produserende og besluttede felt og tar høyde for utvikling i R/P (Reserver dividert med Produksjon), ODs estimater for gjenværende utvinnbart, anleggsbegrensninger osv. Prognosen er ikke justert for redusert uttak fra årlig vedlikehold. Prognosen inkluderer ikke effekten fra nedstengning av felt ettersom disse blir ulønnsomme. I figuren er også vist utvinningsspennet ventet av Olje og Energidepartementet (OED) og en prognose fra IEA (International Energy Agency) mot 2020. 2013-03-14T19:10:41+00:00monthlyhttps://runelikvern.com/2013/03/07/norske-raoljereserver-og-utvinning-per-2012/https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/7ab34-fig6-oecd-petroleumconsumption-oct2012.pngFIG6 OECD PETROLEUMCONSUMPTION OCT2012Figur 6: Figuren viser relativ utvikling i petroleumsforbruket for OECD og de viktigste landene innenfor OECD for perioden januar 2000 til oktober 2012 (januar 2000 = 100).https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/1a737-fig5_oil_price_1995_mar_2013.pngFIG5_OIL_PRICE_1995_MAR_2013Figur 5: Figuren viser utviklingen i den nominelle oljeprisen (Brent spot) for perioden januar 1995 til mars 2013. 1, 2, 3, 4 og 5 års bevegelig snitt er også vist, for hva det er verdt.https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/1c690-fig4_creaming_curve_crude_oil_ncs_2012.pngFIG4_CREAMING_CURVE_CRUDE_OIL_NCS_2012Figur 4: Figuren viser historikken i og totalen fra årlige funn (stablede søyler) fra oljeletingen startet på norsk sektor og til årsslutt 2012. Figuren omtales også som en ”creaming curve”. De lys grønne søylene viser hva som er utvunnet, solgt og levert. Mørk grønn er totale gjenværende reserver. De gule søylene viser reserver i funn det ikke er fattet beslutning om.https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/530c9-fig3_discoveries_by_vintage_and_status_2012.pngFIG3_DISCOVERIES_BY_VINTAGE_AND_STATUS_2012Figur 3: Figuren viser historikken i og status for totale årlige funn (stablede søyler) fra oljeletingen startet på norsk sektor og til årsslutt 2012. De lys grønne søylene viser hva som er utvunnet, solgt og levert. Mørk grønn er totale gjenværende reserver. De gule søylene viser reserver i funn det ikke er fattet beslutning om. Videre viser figuren årlig uttak (tykk sort linje) av råolje siden oljeutvinningen startet i 1970. I figuren er også en tabell som viser funnår for alle feltene med mer enn 1 milliarder fat utvinnbar råolje. (Gb; Giga barrels = milliarder fat) https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/48d26-fig2_ncs_new_developments_2013_2016.pngFIG2_NCS_NEW_DEVELOPMENTS_2013_2016Figur 2: Figuren ovenfor viser en prognose på råoljeutvinningen fra feltene som kommer i utvinning i perioden 2013 til 2016.https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/254c2-fig1_ncs2012_and_forecast_to_2040.pngFIG1_NCS2012_AND_FORECAST_TO_2040Figur 1: Figuren viser historisk utvinning av råolje (etter felt) for norsk sokkel med data fra Oljedirektoratet (OD) for perioden 1970 - 2012. Figuren viser også en fremskrivning av råoljeutvinningen fra felt mot 2040 basert på vurderinger av fallrater, ODs estimater på gjenværende utvinnbare reserver, utvikling i R/P forhold etc.. Videre er det inkludert en prognose på den samlede råoljeutvinningen fra felt som er besluttet utviklet (grønt areal, ref også figur 2) og bidraget fra Johan Sverdrup (blått areal) som nå planlegges satt i utvinning sent i 2018. 2013-03-07T18:02:49+00:00monthlyhttps://runelikvern.com/2013/01/28/hoye-naturgasspriser-gir-okte-utslipp-av-klimagasser/https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/048e7-fig-7-eu-natural-gas-consumptions-and-supplies-and-forecast-towards-2020.pngFIG 7 EU NATURAL GAS CONSUMPTIONS AND SUPPLIES AND FORECAST TOWARDS 2020Figur 7: Figuren ovenfor viser utviklingen i årlig forbruk av naturgass i EU (i denne fremstillingen er Norges gassleveranser vist sammen med EU sin gassutvinning; blått areal) for årene 2001 - 2011. Videre er det vist import av naturgass i rør (rødt areal) og import av naturgass i form av LNG (Liquified Natural Gas; gult areal). Figuren viser videre en prognose på utvinningen i EU + Norge for årene 2012 - 2020 og nivået av rør og LNG import på 2011 nivå. Den sorte linjen viser en prognose for vekst i EU sitt naturgassforbruk slik dette er beskrevet i IEA WEO 2012. https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/1eff6-fig-6-us-eia-natural-gas-consumption-by-sector-and-natural-gas-prices-oct-2012.pngFIG 6 US EIA NATURAL GAS CONSUMPTION BY SECTOR AND NATURAL GAS PRICES OCT 2012Figur 6: Figuren ovenfor viser utviklingen i det årlige forbruket av naturgass for de ulike økonomiske sektorene i USA slik dette blir rapportert av EIA fra januar 2002 til oktober 2012. Det blå området viser utviklingen i leveranser av naturgass for elektrisitetsproduksjon. Den sorte linjen viser utviklingen i den årlige forsyningen av naturgass til forbruk I figuren er også vist utviklingen i naturgassprisen (rød linje, høyre y-akse) på Henry Hub. https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/c0864-fig-5-us-eia-sources-for-electricity-production.pngFIG 5 US EIA SOURCES FOR ELECTRICITY PRODUCTIONFigur 5: Figuren ovenfor viser den årlige utviklingen i energikilde for elektrisitetsproduksjonen i USA fra 1950 til 2011 i Btu (Data fra EIA; Energy Information Administration).https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/a8318-fig-4-uk-natural-gas-for-electricity-production-oct-2012.pngFIG 4 UK NATURAL GAS FOR ELECTRICITY PRODUCTION OCT 2012Figur 4: Figuren ovenfor viser utviklingen i forbruket av naturgass for elektrisitetsproduksjon i Storbritannia fra januar 2000 og per oktober 2012.(Basert på data fra DECC).https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/14b20-fig-3-uk-sources-for-electricity-production.pngFIG 3 UK SOURCES FOR ELECTRICITY PRODUCTIONFig 3: Diagrammet ovenfor viser den årlige utviklingen i energikilde for elektrisitetsproduksjonen i Storbritannia fra januar 2000 til oktober 2012 i MTOE (Data fra DECC; Department of Energy and Climate Change).https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/b415e-fig2-uk-nat-gas-disposition-oct-2012.pngFIG2 UK NAT GAS DISPOSITION OCT 2012Figur 2: Figuren ovenfor viser forsyning og disposisjon av naturgass for Storbritannia fra januar 1996 til oktober 2012. De blå områdene viser netto eksport, det røde netto import og det grønne innenlandsk utvinning for konsum. Naturgassutvinningen i Storbritannia har falt betydelig de siste årene og opplever nå en årlig fallrate på rundt 15 %. Den gule linjen viser utviklingen i utvinningen av årlig markedsført naturgass i Storbritannia og den mørke røde linjen viser den årlige forbruksutviklingen. Det voksende gapet mellom forbruk og innenlandsk produksjon blir dekt gjennom import. Hel mørke blå linje viser hvordan naturgassforbruket varierer med årstidene. https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/3ae3b-figur-1-uk-energy-consumption-by-source.pngFIGUR 1 UK ENERGY CONSUMPTION BY SOURCEFigur 1: Figuren viser utviklingen i det britiske energiforbruket etter kilde for årene 1965 - 2011 uttrykt i Millioner Tonn Olje Ekvivalenter (MTOE). (Data fra BP Statistical Review 2012).2013-01-28T17:29:01+00:00monthlyhttps://runelikvern.com/2012/12/07/trender-i-verdens-oljeforbruk-en-oppdatering-desember-2012/https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/4827e-fig6nonoecdpetroleumdemandjul12.pngFIG6NONOECDPETROLEUMDEMANDJUL12Figur 6; Diagrammet ovenfor viser hvordan implisitt forbruk av olje (all energi i væskeform) har utviklet seg for landene utenfor OECD fra januar 2001 til juli 2012. I diagrammet er også tegnet inn utviklingen i oljeprisen, Brent.https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/550b3-fig5gpspetroleumimportsjul12.pngFIG5GPSPETROLEUMIMPORTSJUL12Figur 5; Diagrammet ovenfor viser utviklingen i petroleumsimporten for Hellas, Portugal og Spania fra januar 2007 til juli 2012. I diagrammet er også tegnet inn utviklingen i oljeprisen, Brent.https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/0bdff-fig4usgasolineconsumptionnov12.pngFIG4USGASOLINECONSUMPTIONNOV12Figur 4; Diagrammet ovenfor viser utviklingen i det amerikanske bensinforbruket fra januar 1994 til november 2012. I diagrammet er også tegnet inn utviklingen i oljeprisen, Brent.https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/46ff1-fig3ustotpetconsumtionnov12.pngFIG3USTOTPETCONSUMTIONNOV12Figur 3; Diagrammet ovenfor viser hvordan det amerikanske petroleumsforbruket har utviklet seg fra januar 1991 til november 2012. I diagrammet er også tegnet inn utviklingen i oljeprisen, Brent. MERK skalering av den venstre vertikale aksen. https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/033f8-fig2oecdrelativedevelopmentsjul12.pngFIG2OECDRELATIVEDEVELOPMENTSJUL12Figur 2; Diagrammet ovenfor viser den relative utviklingen (januar 2000 = 100) i oljeforbruket i OECD og de største økonomiene innen OECD.https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/534f6-fig1oecdconsumptionjul12.pngFIG1OECDCONSUMPTIONJUL12Figur 1; Diagrammet ovenfor viser hvordan forbruket av all energi i væskeform har utviklet seg fra januar 1990 til juli 2012 for landene i OECD. I diagrammet er også tegnet inn utviklingen i oljeprisen, Brent.2012-12-07T15:58:36+00:00monthlyhttps://runelikvern.com/2012/12/04/verdens-oljeforsyning-en-oppdatering-desember-2012/https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/787f1-fig12opecandnonopeccrudeoilsupplyaug2012.pngFIG12OPECANDNONOPECCRUDEOILSUPPLYAUG2012Figur 12; Diagrammet overfor viser utviklingen i forsyningen av råolje og kondensat (C + C) for de 4 økonomiske gruppene beskrevet innledningsvis.https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/50f04-fig11other9opeccrudeoilsupplyaug2012.pngFIG11OTHER9OPECCRUDEOILSUPPLYAUG2012Figur 11; Diagrammet overfor viser utviklingen i forsyningen av råolje og kondensat (C + C) for de 9 øvrige OPEC medlemmene.https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/efd74-fig10kuwaitksauaecrudeoilaug2012.pngFIG10KUWAITKSAUAECRUDEOILAUG2012Figur 11; Diagrammet overfor viser utviklingen i forsyningen av råolje og kondensat (C + C) for de 9 øvrige OPEC medlemmene.https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/3e97a-fig09opecliquidssupplyaug2012.pngFIG09OPECLIQUIDSSUPPLYAUG2012Figur 09; Diagrammet overfor viser utviklingen i forsyningen av råolje/ kondensat (C + C) for hvert enkelt av de 12 OPEC medlemmene og NGPL (Natural Gas Plant Liquids).https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/643a5-fig08chinaliquidssupplyaug2012.pngFIG08CHINALIQUIDSSUPPLYAUG2012Figur 08; Diagrammet viser utviklingen i utvinningen av råolje og kondensat i Kina.https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/84b10-fig07brazilliquidssupplyaug2012.pngFIG07BRAZILLIQUIDSSUPPLYAUG2012Figur 07; Diagrammet viser utviklingen i forsyningen av energi i væskeform for Brasil.https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/4332f-fig06rowliquidssupplyaug2012.pngFIG06ROWLIQUIDSSUPPLYAUG2012Figur 06; Diagrammet ovenfor viser utviklingen i forsyningen av energi i væskeform etter klasse for resten av verden (ROW). ROW inkluderer blant annet Brasil, Kina og Sudan.https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/4cf8c-fig05russialiquidssupplyaug2012.pngFIG05RUSSIALIQUIDSSUPPLYAUG2012Figur 05; Diagrammet ovenfor viser utviklingen i forsyningen av energi i væskeform fra Russland fra januar 2001 og til august 2012.https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/c39c5-fig04usliquidssupplyaug2012.pngFIG04USLIQUIDSSUPPLYAUG2012Figur 04; Diagrammet ovenfor viser utviklingen i forsyningen av energi i væskeform etter klasse (som beskrevet under figur 01) for USA.https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/f3de3-fig03canadaliquidssupplyaug2012.pngFIG03CANADALIQUIDSSUPPLYAUG2012Figur 03; Diagrammet ovenfor viser utviklingen i forsyningen av energi i væskeform etter klasse (som beskrevet under figur 01) for Canada.2012-12-04T19:05:19+00:00monthlyhttps://runelikvern.com/2012/11/20/noe-mer-detaljert-om-fallrater-primaert-for-norsk-sokkel/https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/2b4ce-fig17volvecrudeoilproductionvscumulativeproductionsep2012.pngFig17VolveCrudeOilProductionVSCumulativeProductionSep2012Figur 17: Diagrammet ovenfor (mye brukt i industrien) viser et plott av daglig utvinning mot total (kumulativ) utvinning (horisontal akse) for Volve.https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/ee2af-fig16volvecrudeoilproductionsep2012.pngFig16VolveCrudeOilProductionSep2012Figur 16: Figuren viser utviklingen i den månedlige utvinningen (grønne søyler) og den årlige utvinningen (blå linje og glattet over 12 måneder) for Volve feltet. Den røde linjen viser utviklingen i oljeprisen.https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/5d463-fig15trolldeclineratesep2012.pngFig15TrollDeclineRateSep2012Figur 15: Figuren viser utviklingen i den årlige fallraten (og i noen perioder vekst) for Troll, blå linje og glattet over 12 måneder. Den grønne linjen viser utviklingen i oljeprisen.https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/67897-fig14trollcrudeoilproductionsep2012.pngFig14TrollCrudeOilProductionSep2012Figur 14: Figuren viser utviklingen i den månedlige råoljeutvinningen (grønne søyler) og den årlige utvinningen (blå linje og glattet over 12 måneder) for Troll feltet. Den røde linjen viser utviklingen i oljeprisen.https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/e3967-fig12statfjordcrudeoilproductionsep2012.pngFig12StatfjordCrudeOilProductionSep2012https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/9cfa7-fig13statfjorddeclineratesep2012.pngFig13StatfjordDeclineRateSep2012Figur 13: Figuren viser utviklingen i den årlige fallraten (og i noen perioder vekst) for Statfjord, blå linje og glattet over 12 måneder. Den grønne linjen viser utviklingen i oljeprisen.https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/935c8-fig11nornedevelopmentindeclineratesep2012.pngFig11NorneDevelopmentinDeclinerateSep2012Figur 11: Figuren viser utviklingen i den årlige fallraten (og i noen perioder vekst) for Norne, blå linje og glattet over 12 måneder. Den grønne linjen viser utviklingen i oljeprisen.https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/10d70-fig10nornecrudeoilproductionsep2012.pngFig10NorneCrudeOilProductionSep2012Figur 10: Figuren viser utviklingen i den månedlige utvinningen (grønne søyler) og den årlige utvinningen (blå linje og glattet over 12 måneder) for Norne feltet. Den røde linjen viser utviklingen i oljeprisen.https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/e8b7e-fig09gydadevelopmentinrelativedeclineratesep2012.pngFig09GydaDevelopmentinRelativeDeclineRateSep2012Figur 09: Figuren viser utviklingen i den årlige fallraten (og i noen perioder vekst) for Gyda, blå linje og glattet over 12 måneder. Den grønne linjen viser utviklingen i oljeprisen.https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/d4287-fig08gydacrudeoilproductionsep2012.pngFig08GydaCrudeOilProductionSep2012Figur 08: Figuren viser utviklingen i den månedlige utvinningen (grønne søyler) og den årlige utvinningen (blå linje og glattet over 12 måneder) for Gyda feltet. Den røde linjen viser utviklingen i oljeprisen.2012-11-19T23:03:39+00:00monthlyhttps://runelikvern.com/2012/10/09/utvinningsgrad-for-raolje-pa-norsk-sokkel-og-litt-om-prognoser/https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/f331b-fig6ncscrudeoilforecast2012to2020withcumulatives.pngFIG6NCSCRUDEOILFORECAST2012TO2020WITHCUMULATIVESFigur 6: I diagrammet ovenfor er prognosen fra figur 5 ”blåst opp” for perioden 2012 - 2020. I diagrammet er også vist (høyre akse) Oljedirektoratets estimat på gjenværende utvinnbart ved slutten av 2011 for felt i utvinning (4,47 Gb), estimat på totale tillegg fra felt vedtatt eller ventet vedtatt satt i utvinning (1,00 Gb) og til sist Oljedirektoratets nåværende estimat på utvinnbart fra Johan Sverdrup (1,76 Gb). Det blå arealet viser prognosen for utvinning fra felt i utvinning, det mørke rød bidraget fra felt vedtatt satt i utvinning og det grønne arealet bidraget fra Johan Sverdrup ved oppstart i 2018, disse avleses mot den venstre aksen. Den stigende sorte hele linjen (avleses mot høyre akse) viser utviklingen i akkumulert utvunnet fra felt i utvinning for perioden 2012 - 2020. Den røde linjen viser akkumulert utvunnet fra felt i utvinning og vedtatt satt i utvinning for perioden 2012 - 2020. Den grønne om prognosen på utvinningen fra Johan Sverdrup også inkluderes. https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/bdc3a-fig4ncsexpectedrecoveryratevsooipsmallerfields.pngFIG4NCSEXPECTEDRECOVERYRATEVSOOIPSMALLERFIELDSFigur 4: Diagrammet ovenfor er en ”oppblåst” versjon av figur 3 som viser sammenhengen mellom estimert opprinnelig tilstedeværende råolje (OOIP) og utvinningsgrad for mindre funn/felt på norsk sokkel. For å unngå å mette figuren med merkelapper er noen utvalgte felt identifisert.https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/8f7e6-fig3ncsexpectedrecoveryratevsooip.pngFIG3NCSEXPECTEDRECOVERYRATEVSOOIPFigur 3: Diagrammet ovenfor viser sammenhengen mellom estimert opprinnelig tilstedeværende råolje og utvinningsgrad for alle feltene i utvinning og besluttet utbygd basert på Oljedirektoratets ressursregnskap for 2011. For å unngå å mette figuren med merkelapper er noen utvalgte felt identifisert.https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/bd363-fig1ncsooipsplitonsoldremainingandleftbehind.pngFIG1NCSOOIPSPLITONSOLDREMAININGANDLEFTBEHINDFigur 1: Diagrammet ovenfor viser Oljedirektoratets estimater på opprinnelig totalt tilstedeværende råolje for alle felt i utvinning eller vedtatt utbygd på norsk sokkel ved slutten av 2011. Dette er videre splittet på estimert gjenværende utvinnbart (turkis), solgt og levert (mørk rød) og estimat på gjenværende ressurser (grå). Solgt og levert og estimert gjenværende utvinnbart (mørk rød og turkis) omtales også som opprinnelige utvinnbare reserver. For større versjon i ny fane, klikk på figuren. 2012-10-09T22:22:51+00:00monthlyhttps://runelikvern.com/2012/09/16/fallrater-utvinningsgrad-og-raoljeutvinningen-pa-norsk-sokkel/https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/b56a6-fig5ncsexpectedcrudeoilextractionrates2011.pngfig5NCSexpectedcrudeoilextractionrates2011Figur 2: Diagrammet ovenfor viser hvordan utvinningsgraden for råolje på norsk sokkel og noen utvalgte felt har utviklet seg i perioden 2004 - 2011 basert på Oljedirektoratets årlige ressursregnskap.https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/c6719-fig4ncsdeclineratesjul2012.pngFig4ncsdeclineratesJUL2012Figur 4: Diagrammet viser utviklingen i totalt fall i råoljeutvinningen på norsk sokkel (blå linje). Figuren viser at fallet i den total råoljeutvinningen har vært rundt 6 % årlig siden 2005. I figuren er også vist det underliggende fallet for feltene som var i utvinning 2001/2002 (rød linje). Fallet for disse modne feltene har ligget rundt 12 % på årlig basis. Korrelasjon er nødvendigvis ikke kausalitet, men det er ikke til å legge skjul på at utviklingen i fallratene på norsk sokkel og den internasjonale oljeprisen kan gi assosiasjoner i den retningen. https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/6121a-fig3ncsfieldspost2002asofjul2012.pngFig3NCSfieldspost2002asofJUL2012Figur 3: Figuren viser råoljeutvinningen fra det enkelte felt (med data fra Oljedirektoratet) som var satt i utvinning fra januar 2002 og per juli 2012.https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/7ad9a-fig2ncsactualmonthlycrudeoiljuly2012.pngFig2NCSactualmonthlycrudeoilJULY2012Figur 2: Ovenfor er vist den historiske utvinningen av råolje fra felt som var i utvinning før årsskiftet 2001/2002 (grønne søyler) og utvinningen fra felt som ble satt i utvinning fra januar 2002 og senere (vist med ulike fargekoder for det enkelte felt).https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/162b4-fig1ncsactualandforecastcrudeoilproduction2012.pngFig1NCSactualandforecastcrudeoilproduction2012Figur 5: Figuren viser historisk utvinning av råolje (etter felt) for norsk sokkel med data fra Oljedirektoratet (OD) for perioden 1970 - 2011. Figuren viser også en fremskrivning av råoljeutvinningen fra felt mot 2040 basert på vurderinger av fallrater, ODs estimater på gjenværende utvinnbare reserver, utvikling i R/P forhold og fallrater etc. Videre er det inkludert en prognose på den samlede råoljeutvinningen fra felt som er besluttet utviklet (grønt areal) og ventet bidrag fra Johan Sverdrup (blått areal) som nå planlegges satt i utvinning sent i 2018. 2012-09-16T22:47:45+00:00monthlyhttps://runelikvern.com/2012/09/08/er-skiferolje-en-game-changer-del-2-av-2/https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/38cdb-fig07wtiactualandfuturessep2012.pngFig07WTIactualandfuturesSep2012Figur 07: Figuren viser utviklingen i oljeprisen for WTI (Western Texas Intermediate, en amerikansk olje) for perioden januar 2000 og august 2012. WTI er den mest benyttede referanseoljen i USA. Den stiplete linjen viser prisen for WTI for fremtidskontrakter (NYMEX futures) per 07. september 2012.https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/3ba13-fig06economicsproformawellbakken.pngFig06economicsProFormawellBakkenFigur 06: For pro forma brønnene vist i figur 05 ble det gjort lønnsomhetsanalyser. Grunnlagsdata for lønnsomhetsanalysene er vist i boksen i diagrammet (PRO FORMA WELL 100 = brønn med totalt utvunnet 100 000 fat i første driftsår osv).https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/2d27d-fig05proformawellbakken2011.pngFig05ProFormawellBakken2011Figur 05: Basert på dataene for brønnene som ble studert i detalj ble det også etablert en såkalt statistisk pro forma brønn (eller ”gjennomsnittsbrønn”). Videre ble utviklingen for denne fremskrevet med data fra myndighetene i Nord Dakota og hva som nå foreligger av fremskrivninger fra flere kilder for fremtidig utvikling av utvinning, total utvinning eller EUR (EUR; Estimated Ultimate Recovery) for brønner som utvinner skiferolje.https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/394b7-fig04wellproductivityareaandcompanies.pngFig04wellproductivityareaandcompaniesFigur 04: Figuren ovenfor er basert på den samme metodikken som beskrevet for figur 03. Forskjellen er at den viser utviklingen i utvinningen etter selskap/område.https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/81226-fig03developmentinwellproductivity.pngFig03developmentinwellproductivityFigur 03: Om dataene for alle brønnene som ble studert i detalj fra figur 02 organiseres og presenteres på en litt annen måte så blir det enklere å visualisere hva som er trenden for utvinning av olje fra Bakken formasjonen.https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/d8001-fig02scatterchartwellproductivity1.pngFig02scatterchartwellproductivityFigur 02: Spredningsdiagrammet ovenfor kan være vanskelig å lese for den som ikke er kjent med denne typen diagram. Det som vises er totalt rapportert utvinning (basert på data fra North Dakota Industrial Commission) for de 12 første månedene for brønner som ble rapportert satt i utvinning mot når utvinning av brønnene ble rapportert startet. Brønner startet fra august 2011 hadde i juni 2012 enda ikke 12 måneder med rapportert utvinning. Dette er årsaken til at figuren ikke viser noen datapunkter etter juli 2011.https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/e0cfb-fig02scatterchartwellproductivity.pngFig02scatterchartwellproductivityFigur 02: Spredningsdiagrammet ovenfor kan være vanskelig å lese for den som ikke er kjent med denne typen diagram. Det som vises er totalt rapportert utvinning (basert på data fra North Dakota Industrial Commission) for de 12 første månedene for brønner som ble rapportert satt i utvinning mot når utvinning av brønnene ble rapportert startet. Brønner startet fra august 2011 hadde i juni 2012 enda ikke 12 måneder med rapportert utvinning. Dette er årsaken til at figuren ikke viser noen datapunkter etter juli 2011.https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/4dce3-fig01alicerunningwiththeredqueen.pngfig01AlicerunningwithTheRedQueenFigur 01: Figuren ovenfor er hentet fra ”Alice i Eventyrland” (”Alice in Wonderland” av den engelske forfatteren Charles Lutwidge Dodgson (kanskje bedre kjent under sitt psevdonym Lewis Carrol) som var forfatter, matematiker og logiker. At the top of the hill, the Red Queen begins to run, faster and faster. Alice runs after the Red Queen, but is further perplexed to find that neither one seems to be moving. When they stop running, they are in exactly the same place. Alice remarks on this, to which the Red Queen responds: "Now, here, you see, it takes all the running you can do to keep in the same place". 2012-09-08T15:23:23+00:00monthlyhttps://runelikvern.com/2012/09/05/er-skiferolje-en-game-changer-del-1-av-2/https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/3dbbd-fig10marathonreunionbayproductionbyyear.pngFIG10MarathonReunionBayproductionbyyearFigur 10: Figuren ovenfor viser utviklingen i total utvinning og fra brønner satt i utvinning gjennom kalenderårene 2010, 2011 og så langt i 2012 for Marathon sine brønner i Reunion Bay området. Totalt antall brønner som det er rapportert utvinning fra er også vist.https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/a42fa-fig09marathonreunionbaybakken.pngFIG09MarathonReunionBayBakkenhttps://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/6f5c8-fig08brighamalgerbakkenproduction.pngFIG08BrighamAlgerBakkenproductionFigur 08: Figuren ovenfor viser utviklingen i utvinningen fra individuelle brønner (stablede søyler) for Brigham i Alger området i Bakken formasjonen i Nord Dakota for perioden januar 2010 til og med juni 2012. Videre er det vist utviklingen i totalt antall brønner (grønne sirkler forbundet med sort linje) som det er rapportert utvinning fra.https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/2d66d-fig07brighamtotalproduction.pngFIG07BrighamtotalproductionFigur 07: Figuren ovenfor viser utviklingen i total utvinning for Brigham i Bakken Nord Dakota splittet etter område for perioden januar 2010 til og med juni 2012. Figuren viser også utviklingen i antall brønner det er rapportert utvinning fra.https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/74e71-fig06whittingsanishbakkenallwells.pngFIG06WhittingSanishBakkenallwellsFigur 06: Figuren ovenfor viser innfasing til og utvinning fra de 224 brønnene som Whitting Oil and Gas Corporation hadde i utvinning juni 2012 i Sanish området i Bakken i Nord Dakota og dekker perioden januar 2010 til og med juni 2012. Brønnene i figuren er stablet sekvensielt, det vil si nyeste brønner alltid på topp. Ved å klikke på bildet åpner det i større versjon i nytt vindu.https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/4e7a3-table1bakkenwellsstudied1.pngtable1BakkenwellsstudiedTabell 1: Tabellen oppsummerer totalt antall brønner for hvert område/selskap som studien omfatter. Videre antall brønner med rapportert utvinning for 12 måneder eller mer og som ble satt i utvinning januar 2010 eller senere.https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/57eab-table1bakkenwellsstudied.pngtable1BakkenwellsstudiedTabell 1: Tabellen oppsummerer totalt antall brønner for hvert område/selskap som studien omfatter. Videre antall brønner med rapportert utvinning for 12 måneder eller mer og som ble satt i utvinning januar 2010 eller senere.https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/e9323-fig05bakkenspecificproductiondevelopment1.pngFIG05BakkenspecificproductiondevelopmentFigur 05: Figuren viser utviklingen i den spesifikke produksjonen (fat/brønn/dag) for hele Bakken (sorte prikker forbundet med sort linje), Marathon sine brønner i Reunion Bay (røde firkanter forbundet med rød linje), alle brønnene til Brigham (blå sirkler forbundet med blå linje) og Whitting Oil and Gas Corporation i Sanish (grønne triangler forbundet med grønn linje) for perioden januar 2010 til og med juni 2012.https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/138e8-fig05bakkenspecificproductiondevelopment.pngFIG05BakkenspecificproductiondevelopmentFigur 05: Figuren viser utviklingen i den spesifikke produksjonen (fat/brønn/dag) for hele Bakken (sorte prikker forbundet med sort linje), Marathon sine brønner i Reunion Bay (røde firkanter forbundet med rød linje), alle brønnene til Brigham (blå sirkler forbundet med blå linje) og Whitting Oil and Gas Corporation i Sanish (grønne triangler forbundet med grønn linje) for perioden januar 2010 til og med juni 2012.https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/d9be2-fig04productionprofilessomebakkenwells.pngFIG04productionprofilessomeBakkenwellsFigur 04: Figuren ovenfor viser utviklingen i den daglige utvinningen og totalt (akkumulert) for noen utvalgte brønner i Bakken formasjonen.2012-09-05T20:51:24+00:00monthlyhttps://runelikvern.com/2012/08/08/skifergass/https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/c5064-fig06_example_of_area_development_in_marcellus.pngFIG06_EXAMPLE_OF_AREA_DEVELOPMENT_IN_MARCELLUSFigur 06: Figuren viser den historiske utviklingen i gassutvinningen (sterke farger) for et område i Marcellus sammen med antall brønner (gule sirkler forbundet med sort linje) og ny produksjon som ble brakt inn hver måned (representert med en fargestripe) og hvordan denne utvikler seg over tid. https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/5d958-fig05_pro_forma_well_marcellus.pngFIG05_PRO_FORMA_WELL_MARCELLUSFigur 05: Diagrammet viser forventet produksjonsutvikling for en pro forma brønn i Marcellus. Diagrammet viser også estimat på totale produserte volumer (EUR; Estimated Ultimate Recovery) over tid.https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/cf587-fig04_well_profiles_for_some_shale_plays.pngFIG04_WELL_PROFILES_FOR_SOME_SHALE_PLAYSFigur 04: Figuren viser EIA sine estimater for typiske brønnprofiler for noen utvalgte områder der det nå pågår utvinning av gass fra skifer. Kilde: EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2012.https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/0c3d5-fig03_henry_hub_actual_and_nymex_natural_gas_prices.pngFIG03_HENRY_HUB_ACTUAL_AND_NYMEX_NATURAL_GAS_PRICESFigur 03: Figuren viser historisk utvikling i naturgassprisene på Henry Hub fra januar 2000 til juli 2012. I figuren er også vist utviklingen i den løpende gjennomsnittprisen for en 5 års periode (rød heltrukket linje).https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/218d8-fi02_us_natural_gas_supplies_by_source.pngFI02_US_NATURAL_GAS_SUPPLIES_BY_SOURCEFigur 02: Figuren viser den historiske utviklingen i amerikansk naturgassutvinning splittet på kilde og EIA sin prognose mot 2035 (Shale gas = skifergass).https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/4b520-fig01_north_america_shale_plays.pngFIG01_NORTH_AMERICA_SHALE_PLAYSFigur 01: Kartet overfor fra EIA (Energy Information Administration) viser områdene i Nord Amerika som nå er identifisert å inneholde utvinnbare forekomster av gass og olje i skifer. Områder som nå har en høy aktivitet og utvinning er; Bakken (Nord Dakota), Barnett (Texas), Eagle Ford (Texas), Fayetteville (Arkansas), Haynesville (Louisiana/Texas), Marcellus (New York/Pennsylvania/Vest Virginia).2012-08-08T18:07:25+00:00monthlyhttps://runelikvern.com/2012/08/06/europa-og-naturgass-inntrykk-med-bp-statistical-review-2012/https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/14611-fig05_eu_supplies_by-sources2.pngFIG05_EU_SUPPLIES_BY SOURCESFigur 05: Diagrammet ovenfor viser utviklingen i EU + Norge sin naturgassutvinning og importen av gass fra henholdsvis rørledninger og i form av LNG (Liquified Natural Gas) for årene 2001 - 2011. Videre er det vist en prognose på vekst i forbruket (sort linje) mot 2020 fra EIA. https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/a3f13-fig05_eu_supplies_by-sources1.pngFIG05_EU_SUPPLIES_BY SOURCESFigur 05: Diagrammet ovenfor viser utviklingen i EU + Norge sin naturgassutvinning og importen av gass fra henholdsvis rørledninger og i form av LNG (Liquified Natural Gas) for årene 2001 - 2011. Videre er det vist en prognose på vekst i forbruket (sort linje) mot 2020 fra EIA. https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/72e09-fig10_sources_of_lng_for_europe.pngFIG10_SOURCES_OF_LNG_FOR_EUROPEFigur 10: Diagrammet viser utviklingen i og hvilke land Europa importerte LNG fra for årene 2001 - 2011.https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/c1f5d-fig09_european_countires_imports_of_lng.pngFIG09_EUROPEAN_COUNTIRES_IMPORTS_OF_LNGFigur 09: Figuren viser utviklingen i noen europeiske lands import og forbruk av LNG for årene 2001 - 2011.https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/24d15-fig08_eucountries_imports_of_russian_gas.pngFIG08_EUCOUNTRIES_IMPORTS_OF_RUSSIAN_GAShttps://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/87aa6-fig07_eu_imports_from_russia_and_africa.pngFIG07_EU_IMPORTS_FROM_RUSSIA_AND_AFRICAFigur 07: Figuren viser utviklingen i gassleveranser gjennom rørledninger fra Russland/Eurasia og Nord Afrika, Algerie og Libya, for årene 2001 - 2011.https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/dcb8b-fig06_countries_importing_natural_gas_from_norway.pngFIG06_COUNTRIES_IMPORTING_NATURAL_GAS_FROM_NORWAYFigur 06: Diagrammet ovenfor viser noen lands import av norsk gass for årene 2001 - 2011. https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/0b6ac-fig05_eu_supplies_by-sources.pngFIG05_EU_SUPPLIES_BY SOURCESFigur 05: Diagrammet ovenfor viser utviklingen i EU + Norge sin naturgassutvinning og importen av gass fra henholdsvis rørledninger og i form av LNG (Liquified Natural Gas) for årene 2001 - 2011.https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/2e5cc-fig04_uk_relative_growth_and_decline_rates.pngFIG04_UK_RELATIVE_GROWTH_AND_DECLINE_RATESFigur 04: Figuren viser utviklingen i vekst/fallratene for salgsgass fra britisk sektor for perioden januar 1996 og per mai 2012.https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/9115e-fig03_some_european_countries_natural_gas_production.pngFIG03_SOME_EUROPEAN_COUNTRIES_NATURAL_GAS_PRODUCTIONFigur 03: Figuren viser utviklingen i naturgassutvinningen for de største produsentene i Europa for årene 1970 - 2011. Videre er det vist en prognose for utviklingen i total utvinning for disse landene mot 2020.2012-08-06T18:22:54+00:00monthlyhttps://runelikvern.com/2012/07/10/bp-statistical-review-2012-og-naturgass/https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/d9db2-fig09_south_and_central_america_natgas_production.pngFIG09_SOUTH_AND_CENTRAL_AMERICA_NATGAS_PRODUCTIONFigur 09: Figuren viser utvinningen og forbruket (hel sort linje) av naturgass for Sør og Sentral Amerika for årene 1970 - 2011.https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/53fe6-fig08_middle_east_natgas_production.pngFIG08_MIDDLE_EAST_NATGAS_PRODUCTIONhttps://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/c3f8a-fig07_africa_natgas_production.pngFIG07_AFRICA_NATGAS_PRODUCTIONFigur 07: Figuren viser utvinningen og forbruket (hel sort linje) av naturgass for Afrika for årene 1970 - 2011.https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/aa4ea-fig06_pacific_and_asia_natgas_production.pngFIG06_PACIFIC_AND_ASIA_NATGAS_PRODUCTIONFigur 06: Figuren viser utvinningen og forbruket (hel sort linje) av naturgass for landene i Stillehavsbassenget for årene 1970 - 2011.https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/d3d8a-fig05_north_america_natgas_production.pngFIG05_NORTH_AMERICA_NATGAS_PRODUCTIONFigur 05: Figuren viser utvinningen og forbruket (hel sort linje) av naturgass for Nord Amerika for årene 1970 - 2011.https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/eaf74-fig04_europe_eurasia_natgas_production.pngFIG04_EUROPE_EURASIA_NATGAS_PRODUCTIONFigur 04: Figuren viser utvinningen og forbruket (hel sort linje) av naturgass for Europa og Eurasia for årene 1970 - 2011.https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/42a3d-fig03_bpsr2012_world_natgas_consumption.pngFIG03_BPSR2012_WORLD_NATGAS_CONSUMPTIONFigur 03: Figuren viser utviklingen i naturgassforbruket etter region for årene 1970 - 2011.https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/4571c-fig02_natgas_prices.pngFIG02_NATGAS_PRICESFigur 02: Figuren viser prisutviklingen for naturgass ved noen av verdens viktigste punkter for omsetting av naturgass. I figuren er også vist utviklingen i prisingen på råolje basert på sammenlignbart energiinnhold.https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/bb32b-fig01_bpsr2012_world_natgas_reserves.pngFIG01_BPSR2012_WORLD_NATGAS_RESERVESFigur 01: Figuren viser utviklingen i de globale reservene for naturgass etter region for årene 1980 - 2011. 2012-07-10T16:43:44+00:00monthlyhttps://runelikvern.com/2012/07/04/blir-kull-broen-inn-i-energifremtiden/https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/5722e-fig5_china_energy_consumption_and_sources_bpsr2012.pngFIG5_CHINA_ENERGY_CONSUMPTION_AND_SOURCES_BPSR2012Figur 5: Diagrammet (basert på data fra BP Statistical Review 2012) ovenfor viser utviklingen i energiforbruket i Kina splittet på kilde for årene 1965 - 2011. MTOE; Millioner Tonn Olje Ekvivalenter.https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/0ee8d-fig4_oecd_total_energy_consumption_and_source_bpsr2012.pngFIG4_OECD_TOTAL_ENERGY_CONSUMPTION_AND_SOURCE_BPSR2012Figur 4: Diagrammet (basert på data fra BP Statistical Review 2012) ovenfor viser utviklingen i energiforbruket for OECD splittet på kilde for årene 1965 - 2011. MTOE; Millioner Tonn Olje Ekvivalenter.https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/28fb5-fig3_relative_development_by_energy_source_bpsr2012.pngFIG3_RELATIVE_DEVELOPMENT_BY_ENERGY_SOURCE_BPSR2012Figur 3: Diagrammet (basert på data fra BP Statistical Review 2012) viser den relative utviklingen i energiforbruk etter kilde for årene 2000 - 2011. I diagrammet er 2005 brukt som basis, 2005 = 100.https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/4f493-fig2_world_relative_development_in_energy_consumption_bpsr20122.pngFIG2_WORLD_RELATIVE_DEVELOPMENT_IN_ENERGY_CONSUMPTION_BPSR2012Figur 2: Diagrammet (basert på data fra BP Statistical Review 2012) ovenfor viser den relative utviklingen av kilder til verdens energiforbruk splittet på kilde for årene 1965 - 2011. https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/fc968-fig2_world_relative_development_in_energy_consumption_bpsr20121.pngFIG2_WORLD_RELATIVE_DEVELOPMENT_IN_ENERGY_CONSUMPTION_BPSR2012Figur 2: Diagrammet (basert på data fra BP Statistical Review 2012) ovenfor viser den relative utviklingen av kilder til verdens energiforbruk splittet på kilde for årene 1965 - 2011. https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/746c0-fig2_world_relative_development_in_energy_consumption_bpsr2012.pngFIG2_WORLD_RELATIVE_DEVELOPMENT_IN_ENERGY_CONSUMPTION_BPSR2012Figur 2: Diagrammet (basert på data fra BP Statistical Review 2012) ovenfor viser den relative utviklingen av kilder til verdens energiforbruk splittet på kilde for årene 1965 - 2011. https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/acb61-fig1_world_energy_consumption_bpsr2012.pngFIG1_WORLD_ENERGY_CONSUMPTION_BPSR2012Figur 1: Diagrammet (basert på data fra BP Statistical Review 2012) ovenfor viser utviklingen i verdens energiforbruk splittet på kilde for årene 1965 - 2011. MTOE; Millioner Tonn Olje Ekvivalenter.2012-07-04T15:53:44+00:00monthlyhttps://runelikvern.com/2012/06/25/noen-fa-inntrykk-fra-bp-statistical-review-2012/https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/a04e1-fig05_production.pngFIG05_PRODUCTIONhttps://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/f8149-fig04_r_over_p_development.pngFIG04_R_OVER_P_DEVELOPMENThttps://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/b5cb9-fig03_non_opec_reserves.pngFIG03_NON_OPEC_RESERVEShttps://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/084a0-fig02_opec_split_on_members.pngFIG02_OPEC_SPLIT_ON_MEMBERShttps://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/62a4e-fig01_world_oil_reserves_split-on_category1.pngFIG01_WORLD_OIL_RESERVES_SPLIT ON_CATEGORYhttps://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/64873-fig01_world_oil_reserves_split-on_category.pngFIG01_WORLD_OIL_RESERVES_SPLIT ON_CATEGORY2012-06-25T15:20:37+00:00monthlyhttps://runelikvern.com/2012/06/03/trender-i-den-globale-oljeettersporselen-en-oppdatering-juni-2012/https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/6aaf9-fig5_gps_countries_net_oil_imports_jan2012.pngFIG5_GPS_COUNTRIES_NET_OIL_IMPORTS_JAN2012https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/20638-fig4_uk_petroleum_consumption_jan2012.pngFIG4_UK_PETROLEUM_CONSUMPTION_JAN2012https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/b9375-fig3_us_petroleum_consum_may2012.pngFIG3_US_PETROLEUM_CONSUM_MAY2012https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/e5c2a-fig2_non_oecd_implied_pet_demand_jan2012.pngFIG2_NON_OECD_IMPLIED_PET_DEMAND_JAN2012https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/80068-fig1_oecd_petroleum_consumption_jan20121.pngFIG1_OECD_PETROLEUM_CONSUMPTION_JAN2012https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/5ea33-fig1_oecd_petroleum_consumption_jan2012.pngFIG1_OECD_PETROLEUM_CONSUMPTION_JAN20122012-06-03T20:58:58+00:00monthlyhttps://runelikvern.com/2012/05/31/verdens-oljeforsyning-en-oppdatering-mai-2012/https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/c6882-fig10_other_9_opec_crude_feb2012.pngFIG10_OTHER_9_OPEC_CRUDE_FEB2012https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/1a3d9-fig09_crude_oil_ksa_kuwait_uae_feb2012.pngFIG09_CRUDE_OIL_KSA_KUWAIT_UAE_FEB2012https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/5c9b6-fig08_opec_crude_and_condensate_and_ngl_feb2012.pngFIG08_OPEC_CRUDE_AND_CONDENSATE_AND_NGL_FEB2012https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/7325d-fig07_china_crude_oil_feb2012.pngFIG07_CHINA_CRUDE_OIL_FEB2012https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/f60f0-fig06_row_all_liquids_feb2012.pngFIG06_ROW_ALL_LIQUIDS_FEB2012https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/0aa48-fig05_russia_all_liquids_feb2012.pngFIG05_RUSSIA_ALL_LIQUIDS_FEB2012https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/bc702-fig04_usa_all_liquids_feb2012.pngFIG04_USA_ALL_LIQUIDS_FEB2012https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/f2bc4-fig03_oecd_all_liquids_feb2012.pngFIG03_OECD_ALL_LIQUIDS_FEB2012https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/09c5e-fig02_world_crude_condensate_bakken_eagle_ford_feb2012.pngFIG02_WORLD_CRUDE_CONDENSATE_BAKKEN_EAGLE_FORD_FEB2012https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/0aab8-fig01_world_all_liquids_feb2012.pngFIG01_WORLD_ALL_LIQUIDS_FEB20122012-05-31T16:17:57+00:00monthlyhttps://runelikvern.com/2012/04/28/raoljeutvinningen-fra-norsk-sokkel-og-bidrag-fra-nye-felt/https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/c1701-figur-3-norsk-sokkel-per-2011-og-prognose1.pngFIGUR 3 NORSK SOKKEL PER 2011 OG PROGNOSEhttps://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/f0298-figur-3-norsk-sokkel-per-2011-og-prognose.pngFIGUR 3 NORSK SOKKEL PER 2011 OG PROGNOSEhttps://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/6f901-figur-2-nye-felt-i-utvinning.pngFIGUR 2 NYE FELT I UTVINNINGhttps://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/0be7a-figur-1-totalt-i-utvinning-2011-2016.pngFIGUR 1 TOTALT I UTVINNING 2011 2016https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/084b2-tabell-2-felt-data.pngTABELL 2 FELT DATAhttps://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/79571-tabell-1-nye-utbygginger-norge-mot-2017.pngTABELL 1 NYE UTBYGGINGER NORGE MOT 20172012-04-28T15:36:23+00:00monthlyhttps://runelikvern.com/2012/04/07/verdens-raoljeproduksjon-og-oljepris/https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/55da1-fig04_bands_of_breakeven_costs_for_crude_oil.pngFIG04_BANDS_OF_BREAKEVEN_COSTS_FOR_CRUDE_OILhttps://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/56aff-fig03_field_development_in_breakeven_price.pngFIG03_FIELD_DEVELOPMENT_IN_BREAKEVEN_PRICEhttps://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/d3c97-fig02_crude_bitumen_and-shale_oil_2011.pngFIG02_CRUDE_BITUMEN_AND SHALE_OIL_2011https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/b41e1-fig01_brent_oil_price_april_2012.pngFIG01_BRENT_OIL_PRICE_APRIL_20122012-05-12T11:19:15+00:00monthlyhttps://runelikvern.com/2012/03/22/historisk-norsk-gassutvinning-og-prognose-mot-2020-3/https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/74657-fig_4_norway_crude_oil_and_natural_gas_towards_20201.pngFIG_4_NORWAY_CRUDE_OIL_AND_NATURAL_GAS_TOWARDS_2020https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/41433-fig_3_norwegian_forecast_natural_gas_using_r_over_p1.pngFIG_3_NORWEGIAN_FORECAST_NATURAL_GAS_USING_R_OVER_Phttps://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/e5873-fig_2_norwegian_actual_natural_gas_production_by_field1.pngFIG_2_NORWEGIAN_ACTUAL_NATURAL_GAS_PRODUCTION_BY_FIELDhttps://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/57c3e-fig_1_norwegian_actual_and_forecast_20202.pngFIG_1_NORWEGIAN_ACTUAL_AND_FORECAST_20202012-03-29T11:54:38+00:00monthlyhttps://runelikvern.com/2012/03/06/norske-raoljereserver-og-utvinning-per-2011/https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/907b5-norwegian_crude_oil_forecast_updated_summer_2012.pngNORWEGIAN_CRUDE_OIL_FORECAST_UPDATED_SUMMER_2012Figur: 1 Figuren viser den historiske råoljeutvinningen fra norsk sokkel fordelt på felt. Videre er det utarbeidet en prognose av meg mot 2040 basert på OD’s reserve og ressursdata ved årsslutt 2011. Prognosen tar utgangspunkt i feltenes R/P forhold, gjenværende utvinnbare reserver, funn (slik som Johan Sverdrup, Skrugard, Havis m.m.). Prognosen tar ikke høyde for felt som stenges ned ettersom de blir ulønnsomme. Prognosen vil kunne endre seg som følge av endringer i estimatene for utvinnbare reserver i produserende felt, påviste funn og nye drivverdige funn både i modne områder, Barentshavet og Lofoten/Vesterålen. Oljeprisen vil fortsette å være den parameteren som vil ha størst innflytelse på den fremtidige norske oljeutvinningen.https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/fef8b-fig2_norwegian_crude_oil_discoveries_2011.pngFIG2_NORWEGIAN_CRUDE_OIL_DISCOVERIES_2011https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/cc3cb-fig1_norwegian_crude_oil_2011.pngFIG1_NORWEGIAN_CRUDE_OIL_2011https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/c9167-fig7_norwegian_by_decade_and_gross_income.pngFIG7_NORWEGIAN_BY_DECADE_AND_GROSS_INCOMEhttps://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/c4b26-fig6_norwegian_by_decade_and_oil_price.pngFIG6_NORWEGIAN_BY_DECADE_AND_OIL_PRICEhttps://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/23aa7-fig5_norwegian_creaming_curve.pngFIG5_NORWEGIAN_CREAMING_CURVEhttps://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/9922b-fig4_norwegian_discoveries_by_decade.pngFIG4_NORWEGIAN_DISCOVERIES_BY_DECADEhttps://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/d419d-fig3_norwegian_discoveries_2005_to_2011.pngFIG3_NORWEGIAN_DISCOVERIES_2005_TO_20112012-03-06T20:32:49+00:00monthlyhttps://runelikvern.com/2011/12/21/trender-i-det-globale-oljeforbruket/https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/56753-fig1_oecd_petroleum_consumption_jul11.pngFIG1_OECD_PETROLEUM_CONSUMPTION_JUL11Figur 1; Diagrammet ovenfor viser hvordan forbruket av all energi i væskeform har utviklet seg fra januar 1990 til juli 2011 for landene i OECD. I diagrammet er også tegnet inn utviklingen i oljeprisen, Brent.https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/481d8-fig5_oecd_and_nonoecd_realtive_development_jul11.pngFIG5_OECD_AND_NONOECD_REALTIVE_DEVELOPMENT_JUL11Figur 5; Diagrammet ovenfor som dekker perioden januar 2000 til juli 2011 viser på årlig basis; 1) utviklingen i oljeforbruket for OECD, blå linje 2) utviklingen i oljeforbruket for landene utenfor OECD (NON OECD), rød linje 3) utviklingen i den globale oljeforsyningen, sort linje I diagrammet er også tegnet inn utviklingen i oljeprisen, Brent. https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/62d70-fig4_nonoecd_petroleum_consumption_jul11.pngFIG4_NONOECD_PETROLEUM_CONSUMPTION_JUL11Figur 4; Diagrammet ovenfor viser hvordan forbruket av olje (all energi i væskeform) har utviklet seg for landene utenfor OECD fra januar 2001 til juli 2011. I diagrammet er også tegnet inn utviklingen i oljeprisen, Brent.https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/7f17d-fig3_usa_petroleum_consumption_dec11.pngFIG3_USA_PETROLEUM_CONSUMPTION_DEC11Figur 3; Diagrammet ovenfor viser hvordan det amerikanske petroleumsforbruket har utviklet seg fra januar 1991 til desember 2011. I diagrammet er også tegnet inn utviklingen i oljeprisen, Brent.https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/107d8-fig2_italy_petroleum_consumption_jul11.pngFIG2_ITALY_PETROLEUM_CONSUMPTION_JUL11Figur 2; Diagrammet ovenfor viser hvordan oljeforbruket (all energi i væskeform) har utviklet seg fra januar 1990 til juli 2011 for Italia. I diagrammet er også tegnet inn utviklingen i oljeprisen, Brent.2011-12-21T16:29:37+00:00monthlyhttps://runelikvern.com/2011/12/07/global-oljeforsyning-en-oppdatering-desember-2011/https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/7903a-fig5_row_total_aug2011.pngFIG5_ROW_TOTAL_AUG2011Figur 5; Diagrammet overfor viser utviklingen i forsyningen av energi i væskeform etter klasse fra resten av verden (ROW). Denne gruppen av land inkluderer Argentina, Brasil, Kina, Sudan etc.https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/7aecd-fig4_russia_total_aug2011.pngFIG4_RUSSIA_TOTAL_AUG2011Figur 4; Diagrammet viser utviklingen i forsyningen fra Russland fra januar 2001 og til august 2011.https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/01c6d-fig3_oecd_total_aug2011.pngFIG3_OECD_TOTAL_AUG2011Figur 3; Diagrammet ovenfor viser utviklingen i forsyningen av energi i væskeform etter klasse (som beskrevet under figur 1) for OECD.https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/3bd61-fig2_heating_value_adjusted_aug2011.pngFIG2_HEATING_VALUE_ADJUSTED_AUG2011Figur 2; Diagrammet viser utviklingen i global forsyning av all energi i væskeform uttrykt i samme volumetriske energiinnhold som råolje fra januar 2001 og til august 2011.https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/c26a5-fig1_world_total_aug2011.pngFIG1_WORLD_TOTAL_AUG2011Figur 1; Diagrammet ovenfor viser hvordan utviklingen i den globale forsyningen av råolje og kondensat (grønne kolonner), NGL (Natural Gas Liquids; etan, propan, butan (lys blå kolonner)), annen energi i væskeform (etanol, biodiesel etc. (røde kolonner)) og volumøkninger fra raffinering (refinery gains; gule kolonner) har utviklet seg fra januar 2001 til august 2011. I diagrammet er også tegnet inn utviklingen i oljeprisen, Brent.https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/e7d88-fig8_crudeoil_other9_aug2011.pngFIG8_CRUDEOIL_OTHER9_AUG2011Figur 8; Diagrammet overfor viser utviklingen i forsyningen av råolje og kondensat (C + C) for de 9 andre OPEC medlemmene.https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/ddc4d-fig7_kuwait_ksa_uae_aug2011.pngFIG7_KUWAIT_KSA_UAE_AUG2011Figur 7; Diagrammet overfor viser utviklingen i forsyningen av råolje og kondensat (C + C) for De Forente Arabiske Emirater (UAE), Kuwait og Saudi Arabia.https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/33a77-fig6_opec12_crude_and_ngl_aug2011.pngFIG6_OPEC12_CRUDE_AND_NGL_AUG2011Figur 6; Diagrammet overfor viser utviklingen i forsyningen av råolje og kondensat (C + C) for hvert enkelt av de 12 OPEC medlemmene og NGL (Natural Gas Liquids).2011-12-30T16:53:26+00:00monthlyhttps://runelikvern.com/2011/12/04/its-the-debt-stupid/https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/98a89-fig2_crudeoil_portion_of_gdp.pngFIG2_CRUDEOIL_PORTION_OF_GDPhttps://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/fae0d-fig6_interest_oil_price.pngFIG6_INTEREST_OIL_PRICEFigur 6: Diagrammet ovenfor viser utviklingen fra 2000 til 2010 for noen land på hvilken oljeprisøkning som motsvarer 1 % økning i renten på offentlig gjeld.https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/8cbc2-fig5_total-debt_levels.pngFIG5_TOTAL DEBT_LEVELSFigur 5: Diagrammet ovenfor viser offentlig, privat og bedrifts gjeld som andel av BNP for noen land. Finansiell gjeld er ikke tatt med.https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/71eb5-fig4_relative-development_in_debt_gdp_ratio.pngFIG4_RELATIVE DEVELOPMENT_IN_DEBT_GDP_RATIOFigur 4: Diagrammet ovenfor viser hvordan offentlig gjeldsgrad akselererte for noen land fra rundt midten av forrige tiår. I EUs stabilitetspakt er det nedfelt krav om at forholdet mellom offentlig gjeld og brutto nasjonal produkt (BNP) skal ligge på 60 % eller lavere og at det årlige offentlige budsjettunderskuddet ikke skal være høyere enn 3 % av BNP.https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/b9bda-fig3_net_imports_greece_portugal.pngFIG3_NET_IMPORTS_GREECE_PORTUGALFigur 3: Diagrammet ovenfor viser utviklingen for import av råolje for Hellas, Portugal og Spania for perioden januar 2007 til juli 2011. Disse landene importerer omtrent all sin råolje.https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/bec2a-oilprice_late_november_2011.pngOILPRICE_LATE_NOVEMBER_2011Figur 1: Figuren viser utviklingen i oljeprisen fra 1995 og inntil nylig. I diagrammet er også tegnet inn løpende snitt av oljeprisen for 1, 2, 3, 4 og 5 år og dette illustrerer at oljeprisen har beveget seg til et strukturelt høyere nivå.2011-12-04T22:14:20+00:00monthlyhttps://runelikvern.com/2011/11/24/spu-noen-betraktninger-november-2011-2/https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/87f6f-fig3_c3a5rlig_norsk_petroleumsutvinning2.pngFIG3_ÅRLIG_NORSK_PETROLEUMSUTVINNINGFigur 3: Figuren viser det historiske årlige uttaket av petroleum (etter klasse) fra norsk sokkel fra 1995 til 2011 slik dette er rapportert av Oljedirektoratet. I diagrammet er også tegnet inn hvordan de årlige endringene på markedsverdien av SPU (etter handlingsregelen på 4 %) kunne omsettes til fat olje av Brent kvalitet.https://runelikvern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/5ad9e-fig2_utvinning_av-_petroleum_norsk-_sokkel.pngFIG2_UTVINNING_AV _PETROLEUM_NORSK _SOKKELFigur 2: Figuren viser det totale historiske uttaket av petroleum fra norsk sokkel fra 1970 til 2011. Uttaket er splittet på de fire klassene petroleum som Oljedirektoratet rapporterer; råolje, kondensat, NGL og naturgass. I diagrammet er også tegnet inn totale reserver av petroleum (stablede linjer) slik disse var estimert av Oljedirektoratet ved årsslutt 2010. I figuren er også tegnet inn hva markedsverdien av SPU (justert for handlingsregelen på 4 %) ved respektive årsslutt ville kunne kjøpt av volumer råolje av Brent kvalitet (oransje søyler). NGL, Natural Gas Liquids; etan, propan, butan.2011-11-24T01:17:59+00:00monthlyhttps://runelikvern.comdaily1.02021-05-09T22:21:03+00:00